Bishop Tutu speaks

[TheAnvil 0]

Clicky

This Zimbabwe thing saddens me. Africa is such a FANTASTIC place. I've been to Zimbabwe (2001) and its natural beauty is breathtaking. It's just so sad that Africa is so screwed up. Zimbabwe, Congo, Sudan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Somalia - it just seems there's a never ending story of tragedy for that remarkable continent.

Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

[shropshire 0]

Problem is, not enough people with money and power actually care

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[Lindsey 0]

Seems like an appropriate place for the UN to intervene.

--
A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail

[Gawain 0]

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Seems like an appropriate place for the UN to intervene.

Yeah, because they're so well equipped to do so, and they always make a difference.

The African Union may be a better platform to develop a political strategy (including direct intervention).

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[akarunway 1]

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Clicky">

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[url "http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7479696.stm"]Clicky

This Zimbabwe thing saddens me. Africa is such a FANTASTIC place. I've been to Zimbabwe (2001) and its natural beauty is breathtaking. It's just so sad that Africa is so screwed up. Zimbabwe, Congo, Sudan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Somalia - it just seems there's a never ending story of tragedy for that remarkable continent.

Maybe this guy can help>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela[url] Na. Let's send in Blackwater/Bechtel/Halliburton et al. Maybe send in Cheny and Rove on a safari. They'll fix the problem for sure,

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

[Andy9o8 2]

Wait a minute - just read the latest story that Mugabe has now sworn himself in. So that makes him legitimate. So never mind.

I ain't no math whiz, but here goes:

World outrage + UN + Mandela + Tutu + African Union + no Oil in Zim = You (we) ain't got jack.

[metalslug 36]

It has often been suggested by some writers and politicians that European colonials are partly, or entirely, to blame for problems in Africa.
A common accusation is that Africans were, or are, denied proper (1st world) education, which has prevented them from prospering independently as 1st world countries.

Robert Mugabe is amongst the most educated politicians in the world, seven degrees from various institutions and he is certainly not the only educated African leader.
IMO, democracy fails in parts of Africa because of culture issues, a type of greed for individual wealth and power, to hold the top of the economic food chain by whatever means necessary.
The tragedy is that this is not necessarily related to ignorance and so it might never be possible to "teach" a better way to Africa.

There is definitely a limit to what outside influences can achieve and this is why so many agree that African problems need to be resolved by Africa itself. Not everyone will agree that change can come from within, only that change must come from within.

No 'mericans were harmed during the making of this post.

[Gawain 0]

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It has often been suggested by some writers and politicians that European colonials are partly, or entirely, to blame for problems in Africa.
A common accusation is that Africans were, or are, denied proper (1st world) education, which has prevented them from prospering independently as 1st world countries.

Robert Mugabe is amongst the most educated politicians in the world, seven degrees from various institutions and he is certainly not the only educated African leader.
IMO, democracy fails in parts of Africa because of culture issues, a type of greed for individual wealth and power, to hold the top of the economic food chain by whatever means necessary.
The tragedy is that this is not necessarily related to ignorance and so it might never be possible to "teach" a better way to Africa.

There is definitely a limit to what outside influences can achieve and this is why so many agree that African problems need to be resolved by Africa itself. Not everyone will agree that change can come from within, only that change must come from within.

I posed questions similar to your observations (not specifically about Zimbabwe) several months ago and whether it was a failing of democracy itself or something else. One counter-observation was that democracy was not a universal truth.

However, I think it's rooted deeper, and much more differently than that and given equal footing, democracy, or individual liberties would prevail.

As you said, cultural roots are part of it, but I think the majority is more in the latter of what you said: pursuit for greed and power, which once attained, there's no longer any desire to think about the legacy of leadership.

It is indeed, a tragedy.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nerdgirl 0]

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I posed questions similar to your observations (not specifically about Zimbabwe) several months ago and whether it was a failing of democracy itself or something else. One counter-observation was that democracy was not a universal truth.

Don't recall any evidence supporting that claim. Can you show me where anyone put forth evidence of that notional speculation?

What was observed is that if one examines variables & factors that can be measured and compared versus anecdote or stereotypes, whether historically ‘observed’ or purely notional, that the "democracy is universal" or "not" assertion does not hold metaphorical water. It's a dependent variable not an independent one.

What kind of factors (independent & dependent variables) are associated with political instability or decline from functioning political system to violence? And which aren’t?


On the positive correlation (to instability), the factors include:
NB: these are blatantly extracted (i.e., stolen verbatim) from Political Instability Task Force and folks at RAND.


Ideological factors
-- Contested homeland or “indivisible territory” occupied by competing ethnic “nations,” Where there is disagreement over a “homeland” or other “indivisible territory” ethnic conflict is much more likely. Remember the assertion made earlier w/r/t artificially imposed boundaries? The “Dark side of Democracy” hypothesis suggests that when two ethnonational movements claim their national boundaries include the same territory, ethnic cleansing can result. (Michael Mann, The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing).
-- Religious and/or ethnic groups making competing claims. E.g., one group actively advocates the imposition of Sharia law; another group actively opposes it.
-- Discrimination/inequality on religious or ethnic lines to include formal institutional discrimination from the national or local government, informal institutional discrimination stemming from a competing group's possession of the government, or broad discrimination across a state. It might also include cases involving significant ethnic or religious-based inequality as a result of historical discrimination or other predicates. Conflicts are more likely to become violent when inequities coincide with religion or ethnicity (Pranab Bardhan, “Method in the Madness? A Political-Economy Analysis of the Ethnic Conflicts in the Less-Developed Countries,” World Development 25, no. 9 (September 1997): 1381-1398).
-- Religious extremism – One or more religious groups in the city is an extremist religion.


Economic factors
-- Negative or very low GDP growth .
-- High unemployment. (Klaus Deininger, “Causes and Consequences of Civil Strife: Micro-level Evidence from Uganda,” Policy Research Working Paper 3045 (World Bank)).
-- Sharp economic reversal/J-curve.
-- Widespread poverty/slums.
-- Recent development economics/economic reforms/austerity measures within the last 3 years. Development economics and other economic reforms (especially “market based” reforms) can increase inequality, creating grievances. (Henk-Jan Brinkman, "Preventing Civil Strife: An Important Role for Economic Policy,” Economic & Social Affairs, DESA Discussion Paper No. 20, (September 2001): 11; and Albert Keidel, “The Economic Basis for Social Unrest in China,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (May 26, 2005).
-- Poor infrastructure in at least three of the following areas: transportation, medical, waste disposal, potable water, and energy/power.
-- Dependence on primary commodity exports. i.e., raw materials such as ore, unrefined oil, grain, etc. Countries that have remained dependent on primary commodities for their exports face dangerously high risks of prolonged conflict. (Paul Collier, et al, Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy).


Military factors
-- Recent history of civil war w/in 5 years.
-- Existing rebel/terrorist/insurgent groups. Once a rebel group is constituted, it is difficult to demobilize (“STTR”), and its existence increases the likelihood of future conflict. (Collier, et al, Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy).
-- High availability of weapons – Availability of small arms and other weapons is “high,” i.e., city residents have or could easily come to have an average of at least 1 firearm per household (Collier, et al, Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy).


Political factors
-- Transitional or partial democracy. ‘Half-hearted’ democratization leads to instability; even well intentioned democratization too rapidly instituted can lead to instability. Extremely oppressive/repressive autocratically-ruled states have tended to be very stable (until strong man dies). Democratization increases susceptibility to terrorism (James A. Piazza, “Draining the Swamp: Democracy Promotion, State Failure, and Terrorism in 19 Middle Eastern Countries,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 30 no. 6 (June 2006): 521-539.)
-- History of significant repression within the last 20 years (originally included colonial occupation).
-- Significant refugees or internally displaced persons. Refugees and Diaspora can stress a city as well as maintaining grievances that would otherwise fade.
-- Rapid population growth (> 3.5 % per year).
-- Ethnic “dominance” (largest ethnic group 50-90% of pop). “The likelihood of civil war doubles when the largest ethnic group constitutes between 45% and 90% of the population” (James A. Sprigg, Jr., On the Use of Social, Economic, and Political Factors to Forecast Instability, February 2005, 18).
-- Change in ethnic balance, e.g., migration and/or fertility have resulted in significant change in the city's ethnic balance over the last 10 years.


Geographic Factors
-- “Bad neighborhood” (neighboring country war or civil war in last 5 years). Peaceful countries that are adjacent to countries engaged in civil war suffer from direct and long-term effects caused by the civil wars of their neighbors.
-- Oil or other “lootable” commodities/wealth increases the likelihood of conflict (Michael Ross, What do we Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?). “Lootable” commodities like gemstones and drugs do not make conflict more likely to occur, but they tend to lengthen existing conflicts.
-- Prone to significant natural disasters: floods, earthquakes, mudslides, tsunamis, etc. (aka a Jared Diamond-esque “geographic luck”). Natural disasters, especially in countries with a history of unrest, can lead to unrest (A. Cooper Drury and Richard S. Olson, “Disasters and Political Unrest: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Contingencies & Crisis Management, 6, no. 3 (September 1998): 153-161).
-- Significant trend of declining fresh water, crop land, or calories per capita for the residents of the city.

Factors that have a negative correlation (i.e. those factors which retard instability) include:
-- Inter-ethnic or inter-(other identity) civic associations. Inter-ethnic civic associations are shown to reduce violence, improve communication between potential adversaries and with authorities, and help mitigate the severity of unrest during violent periods (United States Institute of Peace, Lethal Ethnic Riots: Lessons from India and Beyond, 2003).
-- Tradition of effective civilian control of military.
-- Presence of foreign troops, e.g., UN peacekeepers.
-- Mature democracy. At minimum, has been a democracy for at least 10 years and has had at least two electoral transfers of power deemed legitimate by international observers.
-- The country has a strong central state, capable of and actually extending its authority over the entire sovereign territory of the country. Indicates both state capacity and significant possession of forces of order.
-- Government perceived as legitimate by citizen/resident perceptions of legitimacy (irrelevant to perceptions of international observers). People have more patience when they perceive that they have a responsive government (Kirk S. Bowman and Jerrold D. Green, “Urbanization and Political Instability in the Middle East,” in Population, Poverty, and Politics in Middle East).
-- Rule of Law - “the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence.”
-- Institutions

There are a number of different analytical models that have been applied. The one w/which I am most familiar is the Political Instability Task Force, which has been in operation for over a decade and has done particularly well at predicting political instability: they assert >80% accuracy for the world’s countries from 1955 - 2003. See, e.g., Jay Ulfelder and Michael Lustik “Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy” and Jack A. Goldstone, et al., “A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability.”


VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[pirana 0]

Colonialism certainly set the foundations for the problems Africa is having; or to be more accurate, the rather abrupt end of colonialism.

The nationalism that rose from the ashes of fuedalism and family dynastic rule in Europe got transplanted to Africa via colonialism, whose societal structure (outside the Mediteranean areas) had not yet even grown past a tribal level of organization.

Most of sub-Saharan Africa went from tribal structure and subsistence levels of agriculture with barely any commerce (much less international trade) to colonial satellites indentured to one empire or another to overly sudden independents left to their own devices with no infrastructure to support the workings of a modern nation-state.

Their tribal culture got put on steroids for the gain of the empire. Then as colonialism was ending, control got thrust into the hands of some elite, usually chosen by the colonial power as they withdrew (authoritus interuptus). They appear to have done what tribes do best, hoard everything and fatten their coffers (though their western teachings appear to have taught them to do this under the disguise of fostering development for the whole).

The developed countries of the world put the culture of these tribes on steroids, then turned them loose on each other after drawing rather arbitrary lines on a map. They have never had time or opportunity to mature on their own and self-identify as nations.

My guess is there will still be a few decades of tribal-based slaughter and boundary-based warfare before it is somewhat settled. Not to be unexpected though; it is after all only recently that the last of the fuedal-based western empires (USSR) finally crumbled into it's more natural divisions. That one only lasted as long as it did because of the centrally planned and heavy handed attempt to enforce the state religion of Communism.

It's going to take a while to sort out, and the leaders of the developed nations are not terribly interested in the sufferings of individuals, even large numbers of them, unless they have some significant stake in the game - - such as valuable resources, or exploitable markets.

" . . . the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging them and kicking them into obedience." -- Aldous Huxley

[nigel99 620]

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My guess is there will still be a few decades of tribal-based slaughter and boundary-based warfare before it is somewhat settled.

I think your right. I also question whether it is not "right" that these failed states are not colonised again as the people are clearly not capable of self governance. Unless you are prepared to accept that it is ones right to deliberately live in the stone age.

http://voanews.com/english/2008-06-30-voa26.cfm

Following on from that if people chose to follow and support corrupt leaders that keep them in the poverty and sickness then when do OUR governments have to shoulder the responsibility of stopping wasting our tax money? I do not resent paying tax towards 3rd world development, I do resent paying towards lining the pockets of a dictator or secondly and more difficult to quantify paying towards the wellbeing of people who do not WANT such assistance.

I am kind of pissed off with the whole "Africa is hard-done by" stance. Africa so proudly stands by Mugabe for him having the balls to give the west the finger - why do we keep forcing ourselves on them? Does the west really NEED africa? Perhaps it is time to turn our backs on Africa and leave them to it?

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[Gawain 0]

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I posed questions similar to your observations (not specifically about Zimbabwe) several months ago and whether it was a failing of democracy itself or something else. One counter-observation was that democracy was not a universal truth.

Don't recall any evidence supporting that claim. Can you show me where anyone put forth evidence of that notional speculation?

Quote from Skyrad:

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Democracy as I've argued in the past is not a universal truth. It is not the African way. We Europeans came to Africa and in general imposed our rule on the locals as there were shit loads more of them than there were us we used the local tribal structure to our advantage.

I don't completely agree with it, but I understand the argument.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!