Have Sanctions Worked on Anyone, Ever?

[Gawain 0]

The comment in the Zimbabwe comment, plus the recent declaration of the EU to impose further sanctions on Iran...et al...

I think of past and current targets of sanctions...Libya, Cuba, DPRK, Syria, Iraq...

When did these work? Against whom? And when?

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[BillyVance 35]

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The comment in the Zimbabwe comment, plus the recent declaration of the EU to impose further sanctions on Iran...et al...

I think of past and current targets of sanctions...Libya, Cuba, DPRK, Syria, Iraq...

When did these work? Against whom? And when?

I seem to remember that Libya, although it took years, kowtowed to the US's sanctions following the Pan Am flight bombing? I could be wrong.

As for the others, no I don't think it worked, though the jury's still out on North Korea. I won't ever trust Kim Jong Il.

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[ryoder 1,590]

Yes, they worked against Castro. He finally stepped down.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[brenthutch 444]

I think that Libias capitulation was more due to Kaddaffi seing Sadam being pulled out of his hole and saying "I dont want to be that guy"

[nerdgirl 0]

Yes, sanctions can work and have as part of diplomacy and dialogue.

Sanctions are a tool in the metaphorical foreign policy tool box.

Sanctions are most effective when the combine not only threats but inducements to elicit compliance

Are sanctions the best way to deal with "unfriendly" states is a better question, imo.

Sanctions take time and often have indirect effects, which don't play well for those who want 8-second foreign policy (both in time to 'getting their way' and in time to listen to a news clip).
Sanctions work best when they combine proverbial carrots *and* sticks.

Sanctions work best when the world community is united, e.g., apartheid in South Africa. Sanctions require effective strategic communications.

The effectiveness of sanctions depends on what other countries are involved, what types of sanctions, and what the countries imports/exports are and how they function to determine if sanctions will hurt them.

Sanctions were a huge piece in spurring Libya to give up its nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs, along with incentives, a desire to rejoin the international community, and diplomacy.
Sanctions are a piece in the rollback of the DPRK's nuclear program, along with incentives, diplomacy, and Kim Jong Il's rational actor desire to see his state continue after his death.

Trying to apply one model for every state and situation is usually not the most effective method.
Trying to apply only sanctions without incentives is usually not the most effective method.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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I think that Libias capitulation was more due to Kaddaffi seing Sadam being pulled out of his hole and saying "I dont want to be that guy"

No. Containment (largely via sanctions) and diplomacy worked w/Libya.

You are right that the OIF and OEF played a role, not in the way described. As the draw-up to the invasion of Iraq was occurring, the career foreign service officers and diplomatic corps were able to do their jobs of pursuing US policy interests as promulgated and defined by the administration. Diplomacy worked.

The stage for Libya’s renunciation had been set during President Clinton’s administration, predominantly through strong support of UN efforts. Diplomacy takes time, i.e., it’s not a vocation for those who demand instantaneous gratification, & diplomacy is an a-partisan endeavor. Sanctions and negotiations pre-dated 9-11 and March 2003. The findings of the Lockerbie trial set the international stage. It’s an example of successful treatment of prosecution of terrorism as an international criminal issue and the affect that such criminal prosecution can have on states.

For more see the US State Dept’s Background Note: Libya and the US Congressional Research Service Libya : Background and U.S. Relations from November 2005 (i.e., still a Republican-controlled Congress, if that’s important to you) and mirrored currently on the US State Dept website.

Qadhafi wanted to open his country in response to UN economic sanctions – a very capitalist motivation for a supposed “socialist.” UN sanctions were effective: not in “starving” people (starving the populace was *never* the intention) but in isolating Libya from the international community and global market place. Oil is/was Libya’s principal source of income. Qadhafi is also getting old. He’s not apocryphal is his Islam. And he has a very politically-active son, Sayf al Islam, an alum of London School of Economics, who widely believed to be the likely successor (although he has hinted at advocacy for direct democracy ).

Containment worked with Libya, and it’s working to some extent with the DPRK. (Kim Jong Il is willing to sacrifice his people; he’s not willing to risk his legacy and DPRK becoming a failed state.)

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[brenthutch 444]

Yes I was being over simplistic. However we should not discount the psychological impact that the invasion had, especially when no WMDs were found. It set the bar very low for US military intervention. The new standard is that the US doesn’t have to PROVE that a rouge regime has WMDs, it just has to THINK it does. This imparts a randomness and unpredictability to US policy that is unnerving to our foes (not to mention some of our friends).

[BillyVance 35]

Slightly off-topic... I think Teddy Roosevelt said it best: "Speak softly, but carry a BIG stick"

If that doesn't work, then get all your ducks in a row before you blast the offender to hell.

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[jcd11235 0]

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… a rouge regime …

Do they have any affiliation with the GLIFAA or the LCR?

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[jcd11235 0]

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The comment in the Zimbabwe comment, plus the recent declaration of the EU to impose further sanctions on Iran...et al...

I think of past and current targets of sanctions...Libya, Cuba, DPRK, Syria, Iraq...

When did these work? Against whom? And when?

Colin Powell made the claim in 2001 that sanctions had worked in Iraq w/r/t disarming that country so that they posed no credible threat to their neighbors or anyone else.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Sanctions vs N Korea will be lifted after their cooperation today.

Interesting to see how that works. You talk with a country and they work with you. Hrmmm

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[BillyVance 35]

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Sanctions vs N Korea will be lifted after their cooperation today.

Interesting to see how that works. You talk with a country and they work with you. Hrmmm

Don't get your hopes up. I bet you they're doing their best to hide something. They will likely keep doing whatever it is they're doing, if they can hide it. They haven't allowed inspectors in their country lately to verify things, have they?

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[warpedskydiver 0]

Sanctions are like a beating with a Nerf bat.

Does it make them notice we do not like what they are doing?

YES.

Does it make them stop knowing that a real baseball bat is ready for use?

Damn right.

It is the implication that things may take a far worse turn that does the coercing.

[brenthutch 444]

It is the implication that things may take a far worse turn that does the coercing.

True dat