$9/Gallon = THE CURE

[crwtom 0]

Here some of the "blessings" of cheap gas in the US over the last several decades:

- suburbian sprawling & its ecological impacts
- abandonment of urban centers/communities
- deterioration of public transportation system.
(forget about trains in non-coastal areas, and be ready for
long walks to the bus that leaves 3 times or so a day)
- mass epidemic of obesity. Why walk if you can drive,
and where should you walk anyway?
- poor urban planning: where are the side walks, bicycle paths,
not to mention pedestrian zones.
- poor insulation in home construction
& little attention to heating/cooling efficiency.
- ridiculous fuel economy standards in car industry
(40+mpg should not be a problem anymore and they
make 20+mpg a big deal)
- cluttered high ways packed with ridiculously tank sized "cars".

Policy has failed to cure these sicknesses because every politicians is to scared to make this a pocket book issue. Now, *finally*, it has become one all by itself. Maybe things will move now!

Cheers, T

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Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Yup. The free market will do what the social planners do not.

[billvon 3,118]

>The free market will do what the social planners do not.

Agreed. It will be much more painful, and the result will be people out of work and unable to afford homes, though. It's the price we pay for not wanting to plan for the future.

[The111 1]

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Agreed. It will be much more painful, and the result will be people out of work and unable to afford homes, though. It's the price we pay for not wanting to plan for the future.

Those who have been planning most likely won't lose work or home.

www.WingsuitPhotos.com

[Andrewwhyte 1]

To be sure reaction is always more expensive than proaction (is that a word?).

[VTmotoMike08 0]

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>The free market will do what the social planners do not.

Agreed. It will be much more painful, and the result will be people out of work and unable to afford homes, though. It's the price we pay for not wanting to plan for the future.

I don't post on this forum often. Recent energy costs and the fact that I will soon be out of college and trying to make it on my own in this economy have caused me to become a lot more politically savy, so now I am losing sleep over the details of every day life. Anyway, your statement does not make sense to me.

For me, buying gas is not a choice. I simply have to get to work if I want to live and public transportation does not fit my work schedule and destination and (less importantly) my want to drive my car. I cannot afford to live near enough to walk or ride a bike to work.

According to the reasoning behind this thread, cheap gas in the past decades is the reason why communities are layed out in a way that mandates commuting long distances to work. Presumably, if gas had always been as expensive as it is now, then communities would be layed out differently and I would be in a better position to utilize alternative transportation methods.

Well, too late. Even if gas was $99 per gallon, I can assure you that the city will never be tearing down the modern skyscraper next to my office building to put in a moderatly priced apartment complex or housing community. Never.

So, $9 gas would not force us to redesign our lives to use less oil. It would however:
-Drive food prices thru the roof to the point of middle class starvation
-Totally eliminate recreational activities that use gas (skydiving!)
-Force people in suburbs to take lower paying jobs closer to home
-Otherwise kill our entire economy

Thoughts???

[JohnRich 4]

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Yup. The free market will do what the social planners do not.

IF the politicians will let the free market take care of itself.

Many of them want to artificially influence it, to prevent it from taking care of itself, and would only make things worse in the process.

For example, taking profits from oil companies to pay the electric bills for the poor. That will not only discourage the oil companies from producing more, but will also discourage electricity consumers from using less. This will actually accelerate and intensify the problem.

[billvon 3,118]

I think the appropriate saying is "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

[billvon 3,118]

>For me, buying gas is not a choice. I simply have to get to work if I
> want to live and public transportation does not fit my work schedule and
>destination and (less importantly) my want to drive my car. I cannot afford
>to live near enough to walk or ride a bike to work.

Then you will have a few choices:

1) Not work, and live on unemployment.
2) Choose work you can get to (i.e. fast food.)
3) Move to a location where you can afford to get to work (i.e. close to your place of business or close to public transit.)
4) Get a high paying job that allows you to pay for the gas needed to drive long distances every day.
5) Get a car that gets 70mpg.
6) Get a pluggable hybrid/electric vehicle and drive that.

There are millions of people in New York who either live near mass transit or drive their cars a few miles to a train station. I did that for a year; worked out fine. You can still drive _and_ your gas prices are much lower overall.

>According to the reasoning behind this thread, cheap gas in the past
>decades is the reason why communities are layed out in a way that
>mandates commuting long distances to work. Presumably, if gas had
>always been as expensive as it is now, then communities would be
>layed out differently and I would be in a better position to utilize
>alternative transportation methods.

Correct. Indeed, some communities _are_ layed out like this, and the people there are now in pretty good shape.

>Well, too late. Even if gas was $99 per gallon, I can assure you that the
>city will never be tearing down the modern skyscraper next to my office
>building to put in a moderatly priced apartment complex or housing
>community. Never.

Right. But the city might well put in light rail from that business center to a place near where you live.

>-Drive food prices thru the roof to the point of middle class starvation
>-Totally eliminate recreational activities that use gas (skydiving!)
>-Force people in suburbs to take lower paying jobs closer to home
>-Otherwise kill our entire economy

This has been predicted many times throughout history. The loss of the horse-as-transportation industry (stabling, farmers, blacksmiths, stablehands, buggy manufacturers, whip manufacturers, leather suppliers etc etc) was going to lead to the destruction of the US economy, brought about by the smelly, unreliable automobile.

How'd that work out?

$9 a gallon gas will indeed change things. Among them will be:

-More local food from local farms. (They are called CSA's.) More jobs for locals, fewer jobs for the big farms.

-More mass transit. More jobs for local workers, fewer jobs for auto mechanics and used car salesmen.

-More telecommuting. More people will be able to get jobs (i.e. stay at home parents) while some will lose jobs (i.e. people who can't operate computers.)

-Change in recreational activities. Less will skydive; more will bike, ski and sail.

$9 a gallon gas will indeed change a lot of things. Some will be changes for good, some for bad. It will be an interesting time to live in.

[VTmotoMike08 0]

I am less optimistic about society's ability to adjust (especially in the short term), but we may have to agree to disagree.

All of your adjustment theories are possible, but most will take on the order of years or decades to enact. We needed a solution yesterday. I believe that long term economic damage that is beyond repair will occur before our abilities to adjust can keep up. Some examples:

>1) Not work, and live on unemployment.
Not worth responding to.

>2) Choose work you can get to (i.e. fast food.)
Will not pay the bills.

>3) Move to a location where you can afford to get to work (i.e. close to your place of business or close to public transit.)
Already stated that I cannot afford it until middle class wages rise.

>4) Get a high paying job that allows you to pay for the gas needed to drive long distances every day.
Would be nice for me individually, but if everyone in the world gets higher paying jobs, prices on everything would have to go up, therefore negating my higher wages.

>5) Get a car that gets 70mpg.
And when it comes out, it will cost about $250,000 and only the people who can afford $9 gas could afford this car

>6) Get a pluggable hybrid/electric vehicle and drive that.
See above response.

>>Right. But the city might well put in light rail from that business center to a place near where you live.
And the increase in oil prices that brought the construction of this light rail will be accompanied by an increase in the cost of coal fired (and other) electricity. Before long, I will not be able to afford the light rail too.

I still predict middle class starvation too if gas hits $9/ gal. Huge farms are viable because mass food production brings farmer's costs down to a point where increased transportation cost is acceptable to the end consumer. If the increased trans cost was no longer acceptable, then we would indeed try to buy from local markets. But these do not offer the cheap cost to farmers that mass production in a monocultured field does. So we will be stuck paying the cost of mass production + high trans or local production. It would be arguable which is less expensive, but neither is good. I have not been to a farmer's market in about 4 years but I do not remember them being much cheaper than a grocery store (might have changed by now tho).

>>This has been predicted many times throughout history. The loss of the horse-as-transportation industry (stabling, farmers, blacksmiths, stablehands, buggy manufacturers, whip manufacturers, leather suppliers etc etc) was going to lead to the destruction of the US economy, brought about by the smelly, unreliable automobile.

Today is differnt. There is currently about 6.2 Billion people in the world. It takes longer for 6.2B to adjust than for what, about 1B in the early 1900's?
Our society is not designed to function on $9/ gal gas and if that happens, it will collapse before we can adjust. We are all screwed.

[Andrewwhyte 1]

We always need a solution yesterday. Now that you are part of the real world you will learn that. Being a broke student really isn't so bad after all eh?
Human society has adapted to much worse things than $9.00 gasoline. Yes some people are going to suffer. As a member of the world's educated super-elite (a bachelor's degree qualifies you for that) you are in a better position than most to make sure that you are not one of the losers in this coming re-alignment; in fact, if you play your cards right you could be one of the big winners.
You say you cannot afford to live close to the major work centres, but many people do. You could use the time you save commuting to prepare your meals. This can save you a lot of money on food costs over processed foods. The money you save on commuting can also go to rent/mortgage.
Roomate(s) always help the budget.
I presume you live in Virginia. I have never been there, but I get the feeling it is not the most densely packed area in the world. Maybe move to a city that does accommodate a car-less or at least less-car lifestyle.
Of course you could always work for Big Oil. Are you a scientist? you could move to Alberta and help find cheaper ways of extracting the black gold, or maybe work on carbon capture technology; they are paying very well up here. Remember, as a member of the educated super-elite you are not limited to the US.
Or you can wallow in your middle-class starvation; up to you really.

[DrewEckhardt 0]

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For me, buying gas is not a choice. I simply have to get to work if I want to live and public transportation does not fit my work schedule and destination and (less importantly) my want to drive my car. I cannot afford to live near enough to walk or ride a bike to work.

You choose commuting by car over a smaller and/or shared home closer to work. I rented rooms or split rent on a town house in an expensive city through school and when I got my first job for less than half what I'd have spent on my own apartment. Lots of young people do that expensive places like San Francisco, Seattle, and New York earning far less than "middle class" wages.

That's fine, but it's still a choice.

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Well, too late. Even if gas was $99 per gallon, I can assure you that the city will never be tearing down the modern skyscraper next to my office building to put in a moderatly priced apartment complex or housing community. Never.

You probably already have less moderately priced apartments that become reasonably priced when split 2-4 ways.

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-Totally eliminate recreational activities that use gas (skydiving!)

Europeans have lower salaries but seem to do fine with the $35 jump tickets that would go with jet fuel doubling in price. Otters flown efficiently burn a bit over a gallon per load per jumper.

[Amazon 7]

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you could move to Alberta and help find cheaper ways of extracting the black gold, or maybe work on carbon capture technology; they are paying very well up here. Remember, as a member of the educated super-elite you are not limited to the US.

Aww man... that is like a fate worse than death...

He would have to be jumping with all those Canadians that invade LP every year..... THAT is a fate worse than death I tell ya....

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Ya, I heard a rumour that the winters aren't quite as warm as in Virginia either.

[billvon 3,118]

>All of your adjustment theories are possible, but most will take on the
> order of years or decades to enact. We needed a solution yesterday.

Agreed. Several of us have been pushing for these solutions for decades. Unfortunately, most people will do nothing until it's a pressing emergency (which is what we have now.)

>>3) Move to a location where you can afford to get to work (i.e. close
>>to your place of business or close to public transit.)

>Already stated that I cannot afford it until middle class wages rise.

I don't believe that you could not find a single decent paying job anywhere in the US that is near mass transit. You may not WANT those jobs, but they do exist.

>Would be nice for me individually, but if everyone in the world gets higher
>paying jobs, prices on everything would have to go up, therefore negating
>my higher wages.

If everyone in the world got high paying jobs the world would be a completely different place. But I'm not suggesting that - I am suggesting that if driving long distances is important to YOU, that YOU get a high paying job.

>>5) Get a car that gets 70mpg.
>And when it comes out, it will cost about $250,000

2000 Insight. EPA highway mileage 70mpg. $12,000 on ConsumerGuide.com used car listings.

>>6) Get a pluggable hybrid/electric vehicle and drive that.
>See above response.

New Toyota Prius $28,000
A123 PHEV conversion $10,000

Total $38,000

>And the increase in oil prices that brought the construction of this light
> rail will be accompanied by an increase in the cost of coal fired (and
>other) electricity. Before long, I will not be able to afford the light rail
>too.

Coal is not getting more scarce. Neither is uranium. (Two largest sources of electricity for the US.)

>I still predict middle class starvation too if gas hits $9/ gal.

I predict the less adaptable people will indeed have trouble. But that's the case during any paradigm shift - some get left behind and do poorly while some take advantage of the shift and do incredibly well.

>Our society is not designed to function on $9/ gal gas and if
>that happens, it will collapse before we can adjust.

Then we better start adjusting right now and do it as fast as we can.

[Butters 0]

Move to Canada ... you must be joking.

"That looks dangerous." Leopold Stotch

[Andrewwhyte 1]

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Move to Canada ... you must be joking.

Nobody around here complaining about the price of oil.

[Butters 0]

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Move to Canada ... you must be joking.

Nobody around here complaining about the price of oil.

If people weren't complaining about the price of oil they'd be complaining about something else ... just tune them out.

"That looks dangerous." Leopold Stotch

[kelpdiver 2]

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According to the reasoning behind this thread, cheap gas in the past decades is the reason why communities are layed out in a way that mandates commuting long distances to work. Presumably, if gas had always been as expensive as it is now, then communities would be layed out differently and I would be in a better position to utilize alternative transportation methods.

Well, too late. Even if gas was $99 per gallon, I can assure you that the city will never be tearing down the modern skyscraper next to my office building to put in a moderatly priced apartment complex or housing community. Never.

This isn't a theory. It was simple economics. People want houses, developer buys large tracts of land on the periphery of the metropolis and builds as many houses as the zoning will allow. Other than mandates for space for school and perhaps open space, virtually no retail is zoned, and usually 0 commercial space. No reason to - the jobs are in the metropolis, and developers can't force the creation of jobs where his tract is.

No, they won't be tearing down the skyscraper - that's a stupid idea. But just down the block is some old 5 story building, or an old warehouse. Even after decades of high rise building, they continue to find new spots to put up 60 story buildings in San Francisco's financial district.

What we'll see more of is office space being built within the residential suburbs. Some of that will be driven by self centered executives who own a house out there, but the gain will still be there. The areas that don't lend themselves to mass transit will adopt a lot more telecommuting.

[mnealtx 0]

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But that's the case during any paradigm shift - some get left behind and do poorly while some take advantage of the shift and do incredibly well.

[kallend voice]

So you're willing to have the elderly and poor starving in the streets?

[/kallend voice]

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[billvon 3,118]

>So you're willing to have the elderly and poor starving in the streets?

Only if I can kill a bunch of puppies with an SUV at the same time.

[mnealtx 0]

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>So you're willing to have the elderly and poor starving in the streets?

Only if I can kill a bunch of puppies with an SUV at the same time.

And top it all off by crashing into a tree?

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[Andrewwhyte 1]

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But that's the case during any paradigm shift - some get left behind and do poorly while some take advantage of the shift and do incredibly well.

[kallend voice]

So you're willing to have the elderly and poor starving in the streets?

[/kallend voice]

Beats having the young and rich starving in the streets. Can you imagine how obnoxious Paris Hilton and Britney Spears would be if they were starving.

[mnealtx 0]

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Quote

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But that's the case during any paradigm shift - some get left behind and do poorly while some take advantage of the shift and do incredibly well.

[kallend voice]

So you're willing to have the elderly and poor starving in the streets?

[/kallend voice]

Beats having the young and rich starving in the streets. Can you imagine how obnoxious Paris Hilton and Britney Spears would be if they were starving.

You mean they AREN'T, now? At least if they truly WERE starving they'd be less likely to waste energy running their mouths...

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[nerdgirl 0]

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No, they won't be tearing down the skyscraper - that's a stupid idea. But just down the block is some old 5 story building, or an old warehouse. Even after decades of high rise building, they continue to find new spots to put up 60 story buildings in San Francisco's financial district.

Or like Atlanta's Atlantic Station (even has its own wikipedia page). Privately financed remediation of an area close (<2 miles) to downtown Atlanta that was the site of a defunct steel mill. High-rise office space; condo, detached and rental properties, walkable shopping district (upscale shops, and grocery store, Target + Georgia's only IKEA).

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying