If we all stopped driving.For 1 week.

[DougH 270]

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While it sounds good on the surface, it would actually be "better" and exactly the same monetary effect on the oil companies if you just drove 1/52 less over the course of a year.

And the effect would be nil, zip. The oil companies don't set the prices, the commodity traders do. If the institutional investors did not hit their desired return the price goes up. It really is that simple.

Expect the price to reach $250 / barrel by July 2009.
Expect Mexico to be no longer exporting oil to the U.S. in 6 years.
Expect Russia to stop exporting oil in 9 years.

I fixed it for you, sorry but I just don't think that it is that simple. Sure there is a increase in global demand but there is a comodity bubble in my opinion.

"The restraining order says you're only allowed to touch me in freefall"
=P

[billvon 3,109]

>Sure there is a increase in global demand but there is a comodity
>bubble in my opinion.

They are somewhat opposite. A "commodity bubble" is an increase in price of a commodity when that increase is not driven by actual or predicted demand and/or actual or predicted supply. Demand is going up; supply is not. That means that natural market forces are pushing the price upwards.

Traditionally the amount the price goes up is proportional to the inelasticity of demand. If people will buy it no matter what the cost, then the demand is inelastic. If people will not purchase it (do without, use alternatives) then the demand is elastic.

For a long time now, gas demand has been inelastic. When gas got to $2 people complained, then moved way out into the suburbs and bought a Ford Expedition. Now that it's at $4.69 a gallon (saw that this morning) demand is becoming elastic. This will slow the rise in oil prices.

There is also some additional cost added to oil due to speculation, which is a fancy way of saying people are investing in oil because they think it will go up in price. Since that's the basis of the US Stock Market, I can't see too much we can do about that (other than regulate the oil market like all our other commodity markets.)

[akarunway 1]

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try paying $9.50 a gallon like us suckers in the UK... Then you'll know what pain is all about.

Yaeh but you get all the bennies from the higher taxes eh?

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

[akarunway 1]

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>Yeah. I'll ride my bike 50 miles to work and back down the freeways or
>a 100 on the city roads.

If it's a week? Get a hotel room.

If it's a year? Move to a location served by mass transit.

We all make decisions on where to live, what to buy etc based on the prevailing environment. For decades people have been deciding where to live based on dirt-cheap gas. Now the landscape has changed - and people will have to change their habits accordingly.

I normally do just that. But in construction my jobs are all over. I travel 50 miles a day right now and if I calculate rent and gas vs. the hotel it's about the same. Plus no drive and wear and tear on the truck. Downside. Most of the hotels are scumbag for 300 a week w/ all the transients living there and in THE HOOD. Catch 22. You tell me.

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

[RossDagley 0]

Like an underfunded National Health service that takes 40 weeks to replace a pensioner hip, or perhaps you mean where the tax is supposed to directly go - to our awesome paved road system?

[billvon 3,109]

>But in construction my jobs are all over.

That will change as fuel prices rise.

>I travel 50 miles a day right now and if I calculate rent and gas vs.
>the hotel it's about the same.

Right. And if gas prices hit $7 a gallon, that equation will change as well.