2007 Country Reports on Terrorism - Are 'We' Winning the GWOT?

[nerdgirl 0]

Last week the US Department of State delivered to Congress (per US law) and released to the public its Country Reports On Terrorism 2007 report. It’s pretty extensive – country and terrorists group assessments on the usual ‘suspects’ as well as some less obvious ones. It also has a strategic assessment.

Highlights (imo) from the Strategic Assessment:

“Al-Qa’ida (AQ) and associated networks remained the greatest terrorist threat to the United States and its partners in 2007. It has reconstituted some of its pre-9/11 operational capabilities through the exploitation of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), replacement of captured or killed operational lieutenants, and the restoration of some central control by its top leadership, in particular Ayman al-Zawahiri. Although Usama bin Ladin remained the group’s ideological figurehead, Zawahiri has emerged as AQ’s strategic and operational planner.”

“2007 was marked by the affiliation of regional insurgent groups with AQ, notably the growing threat in North Africa posed by the Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat’s (GSPC) September 2006 merger with AQ, which resulted in GSPC renaming itself al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). AQIM is still primarily focused on the Algerian government, but its target set is broader than it was prior to the merger.”

“At the same time, the alliance of convenience and mutual exploitation between al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) and many Sunni populations there has deteriorated. The Baghdad Security Plan, initiated in February, along with assistance from primarily Sunni tribal and local groups has succeeded in reducing violence to late 2005 levels, has disrupted and diminished AQI infrastructure, and has driven some surviving AQI fighters from Baghdad and Al Anbar into the northern Iraqi provinces of Ninawa, Diyala, and Salah ad Din.”

“The late 2006 Ethiopian invasion of Somalia and subsequent deployment of AU forces there have kept AQ East Africa leadership, and elements of the Council of Islamic Courts that harbored them, on the run. Intense militancy against the Ethiopian and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces continued, reinforcing the early 2007 call to action by AQ through Ayman al-Zawahiri. In an Internet video released in January 2007, al-Zawahiri urged all mujahedin, specifically those in the Maghreb, to extend support to Somali Muslims in a holy war against the occupying Ethiopian forces.”

“Throughout 2007, AQ increased propaganda efforts seeking to inspire support in Muslim populations, undermine Western confidence, and enhance the perception of a powerful worldwide movement. Terrorists consider information operations a principal part of their effort. Use of the Internet for propaganda, recruiting, fundraising and, increasingly, training, has made the Internet a “virtual safe haven.” International intervention in Iraq continued to be exploited by AQ as a rallying cry for radicalization and terrorist activity, as were other conflicts such as Afghanistan and Sudan. The international community has yet to muster a coordinated and effectively resourced program to counter extremist propaganda.”

“2007 witnessed the continuation of the transition from expeditionary to guerilla terrorism highlighted in Country Reports on Terrorism 2006. Through intermediaries, web-based propaganda, exploitation of local grievances, and subversion of immigrant and expatriate populations, terrorists inspired local cells to carry out attacks which they then exploit for propaganda purposes. We have seen a substantial increase in the number of self-identified groups with links (communications, training, and financial) to AQ leadership in Pakistan. These “guerilla” terrorist groups harbor ambitions of a spectacular attack, including acquisition and use of Weapons of Mass Destruction.”

“Iran remained the most significant state sponsor of terrorism. A critically important element of Iranian national security strategy is its ability to conduct terrorist operations abroad.”

“Hizballah, a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, is key to Iran’s terrorism strategy. Iran also continued to threaten its neighbors and destabilize Iraq by providing weapons, training, and funding to select Iraqi Shia militants.”

“In Colombia, the FARC exemplified another trend: growing links between terrorist and other criminal activity. The FARC, which continued to hold hundreds of hostages, including three American citizens captive for more than four years, raised more than an estimated $60 million per year from narcotics trafficking.”

“There were significant achievements in this area this year against terrorist leadership targets, notably the capture or killing of key terrorist leaders in Pakistan, Ethiopia, Iraq, and the Philippines. These efforts buy us time to carry out the most important elements of a comprehensive counterterrorist strategy: disrupting terrorist operations, including their communications, propaganda and subversion efforts; planning and fundraising; and eliminating the conditions that terrorists exploit.”

“Radicalization of immigrant populations, youth and alienated minorities in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa continued. But it became increasingly clear that radicalization to violent extremism does not occur by accident, or because such populations are innately prone to extremism. Rather, we saw increasing evidence of terrorists and extremists manipulating the grievances of alienated youth or immigrant populations, and then cynically exploiting those grievances to subvert legitimate authority and create unrest. We also note a “self-radicalization” process of youths reaching out to extremists in order to become involved in the broader AQ fight.”


Recommendations, or what the report calls “DEFEATING AN AGILE TERRORIST ENEMY” [caps in the original]

“Responding to terrorist groups that have many of the characteristics of a global insurgency – propaganda campaigns, grass roots support, and political and territorial ambitions, though ill-defined, requires a comprehensive response. Successful methods include a focus on protecting and securing the population; and politically and physically marginalizing the insurgents, winning the support and cooperation of at-risk populations by targeted political and development measures, and conducting precise intelligence-led special operations to eliminate critical enemy elements with minimal collateral damage.”

“Counter-radicalization is a key policy priority for the United States, particularly in Europe, given the potential of Europe-based violent extremism to threaten the United States and its key interests directly. The leaders of AQ and its affiliates are extremely interested in recruiting terrorists from and deploying terrorists to Europe, people familiar with Western cultures who can travel freely. Countering such efforts demands that we treat immigrant and youth populations not as a source of threat to be defended against, but as a target of enemy subversion to be protected and supported.”

“The key success factor in confronting violent extremism is the commitment by governments to work with each other, with the international community, with private sector organizations, and with their citizens and immigrant populations. Local communities are also a vital part of countering radicalization strategies.”

~~~~ ~~~ ~~~~

I largely concur with the State Dept assessment and very much support the recommendations.

Would like to see more recognition of the importance of Africa but recognize the political dynamics at play at Foggy Bottom.

Not displeased with the Global Challenge of WMD Terrorism section, either.

Even, New Zealand gets a mention – mostly for counterterrorism efforts.

Last week I had lunch with the New Zealand Ambassador to the US (who married an American girl and did his grad work at U of Pennsylvania). He noted recognition of 9-11 as a turning point for New Zealand’s security policy. In making the case for radical Islam as a global threat, he noted that there was one New Zealand national in the WTC and another on fight 93. He also noted something that was cited in the State Dept report:

“New Zealand remained active in Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, working with coalition partners in undertaking Maritime Security Operations. New Zealand commands the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Afghanistan's Bamiyan Province, as part of NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF).”

This kind of collaborative, coalition work cited in the State Dept report and that Amb Ferguson spoke of is one piece of the work needed to implement the recommendations … but I am less than sure (to put it diplomatically) that traditional military-military cooperation is the most effective way or even ‘an’ effective way to accomplish the types of policy in the recommendations.

Chapter 5 Section 3 discusses “Collaboration with Saudi Arabia" including a number of well-presented efforts by the Saudi Govt to decrease terrorism. The section concludes

“More needs to be done in terms of reducing the flow of money and foreign fighters to Iraq. To combat terrorist financing, Saudi Arabia has instituted new anti-money laundering and counterterrorism finance laws and regulations including removing charity boxes from mosques, restricting the amount of cash that can be carried into or out of the Kingdom, and establishing a Financial Investigations Unit (FIU) in the Ministry of Interior to investigate money-laundering cases and to consolidate all counterterrorism financing operations, both analysis and investigations.”

I would have liked to have seen a more comprehensive set of recommendation, but again appreciate diplomatic dynamics … still did Saudi Arabia get off ‘too easily’ in the State Dept’s report?

In reading the highlights above or the full document, do you think we (however you want to define “we”) are winning the “Global War on Terrorism”? Would we even know until many years have passed?

“Big” Al Qa’eda’s (i.e., Osama bin Laden & near associates) capabilities have decreased, unquestionably. The State Dept report suggests they are "reconstituting." Are we (again however you want to define “we”) winning the fight against the spread of radical Islam & the global Salafists, i.e., those who want to return the world to a notional 7th Century CE caliphate?

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Skyrad 0]

There is no spoon

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[nerdgirl 0]

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There is no spoon

But who has the bigger fork?

(Since we can't take dinnerware/butter knives on planes anymore.)

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Skyrad 0]

Not in the states but outside there are many airlines that still give you a metal steaknife to eat your on board meal with.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[bfilarsky 0]

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Not in the states but outside there are many airlines that still give you a metal steaknife to eat your on board meal with.

hehehe when I flew out to Italy a few months ago, I was surprised to get one on board when I knew there wasn't a snowballs chance in hell the TSA (thousands standing around) would let me bring it on.

Uhhh, huh?

[idrankwhat 0]

I think that this quote is most imperative.

"The key success factor in confronting violent extremism is the commitment by governments to work with each other, with the international community, with private sector organizations, and with their citizens and immigrant populations."

I hope that the next administration puts a much greater emphasis on diplomacy.

[nerdgirl 0]

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Quote

Not in the states but outside there are many airlines that still give you a metal steaknife to eat your on board meal with.

hehehe when I flew out to Italy a few months ago, I was surprised to get one on board when I knew there wasn't a snowballs chance in hell the TSA (thousands standing around) would let me bring it on.

Uhhh, huh?

November 2006 I tried to bring 4 sets of dinnerware + serving utensils (1 set in pink, orange, purple, & green each - even w/the better exchange rate then, cheaper to buy it in France) that I purchased back on carry-on luggage from de Gaulle to Dulles. I was only in Paris for 48h - so all carry-on. French version of TSA would not let me bring the silverware -- knives, forks or spoons -- on board. Ended up checking my bag.

(Just for clarification: I didn't go to Paris to buy silverware, just happened to walk by a shop.)

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

Quote

I hope that the next administration puts a much greater emphasis on diplomacy.

Concur. Colleagues w/whom I work/collaborate/communicate in the international community very much hope so too!

If it's a portent (as the current adminstration draws to a close), what feared to be confrontation between the US & Iran at the recent Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) Review Conference (RevCon), 7-18 April, did not take place. Ambassador Eric Javits (relatively new to the post, moving up to replace retiring Amb Dennis Mahley) in his opening statement -- as representative & voice of the USG -- did not accuse countries of violating the CWC, which was the case at the last CWC RevCon (2003).

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying