Increasing Public Optimism on Iraq

[nerdgirl 0]

The Pew Research Center reported increasing public optimism regarding Iraq in polling results released at the end of February. Excerpts from the full report:

“Public perceptions of the situation in Iraq have become significantly more positive over the past several months, even as opinions about the initial decision to use military force remain mostly negative and unchanged.

“The number of Americans who say the military effort is going very or fairly well is much higher now than a year ago (48% vs. 30% in February 2007). There has been a smaller positive change in the number who believe that the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals (now 53%, up from 47% in February 2007).

“Opinion on the critical question of whether the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq is now about evenly divided, the first time this has happened since late 2006. About half of those surveyed (49%) say they favor bringing troops home as soon as possible, but most of these (33%) favor gradual withdrawal over the next year or two, rather than immediate withdrawal. Similarly, just under half (47%) say that the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, with most of these (30%) saying that no timetable should be set.

“Despite the positive views about progress in many areas, the public remains divided on the question of whether the U.S. presence is helpful or harmful to the Iraqi government. Currently, 44% say that the U.S. military presence does more to weaken the Iraqi government by making them too dependent on us; 43% say that the U.S. presence strengthens the Iraqi government by giving it needed support.”

The survey also found that just over a quarter (28%) of the American public is aware of the number of fatalities (3,983, as of 15 Mar 08, as confirmed by the DoD through Friday + 5 named in Defenselink press release today). Otoh, nearly half (49%) thought that the number of deaths was less than 3,000, and another quarter (23%) asserted the number was greater than 4,000.

(Summary graphics showing opinions, Feb07, Sep07, Nov07, & Feb08 attached.)

Interesting public opinion/perception results taken in context of the election cycle & a NY Times Op-Ed “Winning the Battle, Losing the War” by Jim Willbanks, PhD (LTC Army (ret) & director of the military history department at the United States Army Command and General Staff College, Ft Leavenworth, KS) that followed a few days after release of the Pew Report.

excerpts

“Historians are often reluctant to draw comparisons between historical events, and this has been especially true for Vietnam and Iraq, because the two wars have more differences than similarities. That being said, however, American military actions today can be informed by one general lesson from the Tet offensive, and that is the importance of not putting the best face on a military situation for political reasons.

“To dampen antiwar sentiment, Johnson and Westmoreland encouraged what turned out to be false expectations about our prospects in Vietnam, and this colored Americans’ perception of the Tet offensive, stretching the president’s credibility gap to the breaking point. A tactical victory became a strategic defeat and led to the virtual abdication of President Johnson. General Tran Do of North Vietnam acknowledged that the offensive failed to achieve its objectives, but noted that the public reaction in the United States was ‘a fortunate result.’

“Gen. David Petraeus, commander of coalition forces in Iraq, is a student of the Vietnam War whose doctoral dissertation at Princeton was titled ‘The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam.’ Clearly, he internalized those lessons, because in discussing the surge and the progress of the war in Iraq he has studiously avoided building undue expectations and has repeatedly said that there will be tough times ahead. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was likewise careful in his recent comments about re-evaluating troop reduction plans this summer. The wisdom of their approach will become especially evident if insurgents in Iraq engage in any Tet-like offensive this year -- especially with a presidential election looming and the future of the American military commitment in Iraq hanging in the balance.”

Again, history is not predictive but should not be ignored either.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[kelpdiver 2]

wish they had polled for party affilation on this. Looks rather close to the last two GOP versus Dem voting results.

[jcd11235 0]

Very interesting post. It inspires many questions, but none of them are directed specifically at you.

How does public perception of civilian deaths, which are perceived to be decreasing, compare to actual civilian death rates?

How does the increase in public optimism over the past year compare with the change of public optimism over the entire course of the war. Is it like a stock price that fell from $150 to $15 dollars over a four year period and then climbed to $25 in the subsequent year? Or, is current optimism closer to its peak level?

How does the increase in public optimism relate to the rate of change of attention the war has received from the media and the opponents of the war over the past year? Does there appear to be a correlation?

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[DZJ 0]

The BBC has also recently published a survey to mark the war's fifth birthday. Full report at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/14_03_08iraqpollmarch2008.pdf

and summary at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7299569.stm

[GQ_jumper 4]

The BBC has also recently published a survey to mark the war's fifth birthday. Full report at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/...raqpollmarch2008.pdf

and summary at http://news.bbc.co.uk/...dle_east/7299569.stm

Quote

I don't put much weight in the complaints of the Sunnis, they have no one to blame for their small amount of activity in the new government but themselves. when the governemnt was first stood up they refused to take part because they were no longer in power, they acted like little 10 year olds who didn't get their way so they took all their toys home from the sandbox. And now they are trying to elbow their way back in because they've realized that if they don't play nice with others they get nothing but they are having trouble doing so because all the parties have already been put in place. They are one of the minorities in Iraq and have to accept that fact and learn to play nice or they'll never get anywhere.

And honestly, most of the time when you hear their reason for being unhappy with the way things are going its hard to take them seriously. Once again it sound like a child crying about not getting their way anymore.

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

• Quote

[rushmc 23]

Quote

The Pew Research Center reported increasing public optimism regarding Iraq in polling results released at the end of February. Excerpts from the full report:

“Public perceptions of the situation in Iraq have become significantly more positive over the past several months, even as opinions about the initial decision to use military force remain mostly negative and unchanged.

“The number of Americans who say the military effort is going very or fairly well is much higher now than a year ago (48% vs. 30% in February 2007). There has been a smaller positive change in the number who believe that the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals (now 53%, up from 47% in February 2007).

“Opinion on the critical question of whether the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq is now about evenly divided, the first time this has happened since late 2006. About half of those surveyed (49%) say they favor bringing troops home as soon as possible, but most of these (33%) favor gradual withdrawal over the next year or two, rather than immediate withdrawal. Similarly, just under half (47%) say that the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, with most of these (30%) saying that no timetable should be set.

“Despite the positive views about progress in many areas, the public remains divided on the question of whether the U.S. presence is helpful or harmful to the Iraqi government. Currently, 44% say that the U.S. military presence does more to weaken the Iraqi government by making them too dependent on us; 43% say that the U.S. presence strengthens the Iraqi government by giving it needed support.”

The survey also found that just over a quarter (28%) of the American public is aware of the number of fatalities (3,983, as of 15 Mar 08, as confirmed by the DoD through Friday + 5 named in Defenselink press release today). Otoh, nearly half (49%) thought that the number of deaths was less than 3,000, and another quarter (23%) asserted the number was greater than 4,000.

(Summary graphics showing opinions, Feb07, Sep07, Nov07, & Feb08 attached.)

Interesting public opinion/perception results taken in context of the election cycle & a NY Times Op-Ed “Winning the Battle, Losing the War” by Jim Willbanks, PhD (LTC Army (ret) & director of the military history department at the United States Army Command and General Staff College, Ft Leavenworth, KS) that followed a few days after release of the Pew Report.

excerpts

“Historians are often reluctant to draw comparisons between historical events, and this has been especially true for Vietnam and Iraq, because the two wars have more differences than similarities. That being said, however, American military actions today can be informed by one general lesson from the Tet offensive, and that is the importance of not putting the best face on a military situation for political reasons.

“To dampen antiwar sentiment, Johnson and Westmoreland encouraged what turned out to be false expectations about our prospects in Vietnam, and this colored Americans’ perception of the Tet offensive, stretching the president’s credibility gap to the breaking point. A tactical victory became a strategic defeat and led to the virtual abdication of President Johnson. General Tran Do of North Vietnam acknowledged that the offensive failed to achieve its objectives, but noted that the public reaction in the United States was ‘a fortunate result.’

“Gen. David Petraeus, commander of coalition forces in Iraq, is a student of the Vietnam War whose doctoral dissertation at Princeton was titled ‘The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam.’ Clearly, he internalized those lessons, because in discussing the surge and the progress of the war in Iraq he has studiously avoided building undue expectations and has repeatedly said that there will be tough times ahead. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was likewise careful in his recent comments about re-evaluating troop reduction plans this summer. The wisdom of their approach will become especially evident if insurgents in Iraq engage in any Tet-like offensive this year -- especially with a presidential election looming and the future of the American military commitment in Iraq hanging in the balance.”

Again, history is not predictive but should not be ignored either.

VR/Marg

In all seriousness, why? If you look at how the "news" is reported we have gone from a "how many died today" type reporting to nealy no reporting. How are those changing their minds coming by info that would make them do so?

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[GQ_jumper 4]

we have gone from a "how many died today" type reporting to nealy no reporting

Quote

the "how many died today" type of reporting only worked to hurt our efforts in Iraq. Counting casualties is no way to determine the success or failure of an operation.

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

• Quote

[rushmc 23]

Quote

we have gone from a "how many died today" type reporting to nealy no reporting

Quote

the "how many died today" type of reporting only worked to hurt our efforts in Iraq. Counting casualties is no way to determine the success or failure of an operation.

I understand and agree with your point but, that still does not explain the opinion change with no info coming to the people

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

• Quote

[Royd 0]

Quote

In all seriousness, why? If you look at how the "news" is reported we have gone from a "how many died today" type reporting to nealy no reporting. How are those changing their minds coming by info that would make them do so?

Maybe, even those who eat at the trough of the liberal media, actually know what's on the menu.

[mnealtx 0]

Quote

Quote

we have gone from a "how many died today" type reporting to nealy no reporting

Quote

the "how many died today" type of reporting only worked to hurt our efforts in Iraq. Counting casualties is no way to determine the success or failure of an operation.

I understand and agree with your point but, that still does not explain the opinion change with no info coming to the people

Sure it does - they don't have the MSM going on constantly about "how bad it's going in Iraq".

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

• Quote