Global Cooling

[TheBachelor 5]

Get your jackets...

"The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down. "

Full article:

Temperature Monitors Report Widespread Global Cooling: http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

Let the sniping begin!

There are battered women? I've been eating 'em plain all of these years...

[kelpdiver 2]

and in response to this very cold winter, we're all burning more heating oil than ever! So next year we're hosed!

(well, in California, we mostly use electric since many winters it's barely needed. Not this year)

[PLFXpert 0]

What are you adorable fools talking about?

I haven't had to run my heater, nor my A/C much at all for at least six months!

I live at the beach where it's warmer when cold, and cooler when warm, but still..

It's been super-nice. I LOVE having the windows open.

Paint me in a corner, but my color comes back.

[kallend 2,184]

Looks like cherrypicking one cold month to me.

Here is the source they quote:

data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[quade 4]

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data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

Good thing most people don't know anything about map projections. That web site does, in fact, open itself up to a little criticism.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[lawrocket 3]

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The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C

If it wasn't for global warming, we'd have been fucked.

Here is a picture of my boy on Saturday - just an hour drive from Fresno.

Edited to add - that's the side of a driveway

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[lawrocket 3]

Why? Because the areas of cooling are minimized and the areas of warming are maximized? It look slike the projection is a modifed mercator. In fairness, I think they did all right with it.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[quade 4]

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It look slike the projection is a modifed mercator. In fairness, I think they did all right with it.

It's an equirectangular projection and a distortion of the both the planet and the facts. By using that projection, even if a common one for computer based data, critics could rightfully say that it does not truly represent the data correctly.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[lawrocket 3]

Thanks. Paul. I'm learning something new.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,184]

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It look slike the projection is a modifed mercator. In fairness, I think they did all right with it.

It's an equirectangular projection and a distortion of the both the planet and the facts. By using that projection, even if a common one for computer based data, critics could rightfully say that it does not truly represent the data correctly.

That's a bit of a reach:

" In particular, the plate carrée has become a de-facto standard for computer applications that process global maps, such as Celestia and NASA World Wind, because of the trivial connection between an image pixel and its geographic position."

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Royd 0]

I think that the predicted ice age of the '70's is coming to pass, finally.

[auburnguy 0]

Well I'm going to continue to run my 1100Watt computer, my 1000watt sound system, use lots of how water, turn the heat on full blast while leaving the windows open, leave the lights on when I go out and drive around burning lots of gas in my non hybrid car. Then get on a turbine airplane that spews out exhaust gases and jump out of it at least four times a day on weekends. Thats my contribution to the environment.

"If you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in every day, and do it really half assed. That's the American way."
- Homer Simpson

[billvon 3,132]

>Thats my contribution to the environment.

Sounds like you and Amazon have the same goal then!

[quade 4]

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It look slike the projection is a modifed mercator. In fairness, I think they did all right with it.

It's an equirectangular projection and a distortion of the both the planet and the facts. By using that projection, even if a common one for computer based data, critics could rightfully say that it does not truly represent the data correctly.

That's a bit of a reach:

" In particular, the plate carrée has become a de-facto standard for computer applications that process global maps, such as Celestia and NASA World Wind, because of the trivial connection between an image pixel and its geographic position."

(emphasis mine)

Well, if you think it's a bit of a reach, then can you do an independent experiment for me and see what the results are?

Take the map image and wrap it around a sphere. Then show that image and the equirectangular projection to some folks and ask them which shows more "red" areas.

Again, I'm not doubting the data, just the way it's presented to the viewer. Heck print it out and take it down to the Geography Department. Get their opinion on my point of view.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[piper17 1]

Economies thrive during extended warm periods. Look at history, especially of Europe, during the Medieval Warm Period (900 - 1300 AD). Things turned downward (plague, crop failures, revolutions, starvation, etc) during the Little Ice Age that followed this period of global warming.

"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition"...Rudyard Kipling

[nerdgirl 0]

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Economies thrive during extended warm periods. Look at history, especially of Europe, during the Medieval Warm Period (900 - 1300 AD). Things turned downward (plague, crop failures, revolutions, starvation, etc) during the Little Ice Age that followed this period of global warming.

Similar pattern observed in China as well.

Correlation btw climate change & incidence of war was reported late last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), “Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent history.”
(Full text available at (free): http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/104/49/19214.pdf).

The authors found correlation of historical incidence of cooling climate periods across disparate geographical and cultural areas (i.e., Europe & China) and incidence of war.

The hypothesis is that long-term climate change has significant direct effects in land-carrying capacity that increases the likelihood of armed conflicts and population declines, which seems kind of obvious to me ... but need to the data and analysis to "prove" it.
By doing a meta-analysis integrating multiple databases, a correlation is observed that the authors assert represents the first time that a clear link between war and changing global temperatures has been identified in historical data: “Results showed a cyclic pattern of turbulent periods when temperatures were low followed by tranquil ones when temperatures were higher. The number of wars per year worldwide during cold centuries was almost twice that of the mild 18th century.”

The idea that past climate changes (both natural and human-created) influenced/impacted human society is not new – seen with the Cahokia Native Americans of East St Louis, the Anasazi of southwest USA, ancient and modern Mesopatamia, Turkey's Catalhayuk, and the Vikings of Greenland, albeit most of those were very localized. It’s the correlation with incidence of armed conflict/war that's novel.

Here's the conundrum:
Extrapolating to severe anthropogenic global warming is not completely unambiguous, as the Northern hemisphere is currently at the height of a warm period, whereas historical correlations of war and population decline were observed during cooling periods, e.g., the Little Ice Age (~1450 – 1710 CE). We’re starting at the top of a curve, whether completely natural or natural + human impact is disputed.

The authors mention the impact of technological and social advances in Europe that the authors assert help mitigate the impact of cooling periods in the more recent past. To me this argues for the importance of technological and social approaches, such as international cooperative institutions and the non-traditional institutional approaches that leverage the power of the free market.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[kallend 2,184]

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It look slike the projection is a modifed mercator. In fairness, I think they did all right with it.

It's an equirectangular projection and a distortion of the both the planet and the facts. By using that projection, even if a common one for computer based data, critics could rightfully say that it does not truly represent the data correctly.

That's a bit of a reach:

" In particular, the plate carrée has become a de-facto standard for computer applications that process global maps, such as Celestia and NASA World Wind, because of the trivial connection between an image pixel and its geographic position."

(emphasis mine)

Well, if you think it's a bit of a reach, then can you do an independent experiment for me and see what the results are?

Take the map image and wrap it around a sphere. Then show that image and the equirectangular projection to some folks and ask them which shows more "red" areas.

Again, I'm not doubting the data, just the way it's presented to the viewer. Heck print it out and take it down to the Geography Department. Get their opinion on my point of view.

Paul, in my professional life I work on projections. I have published some 75 papers in technical journals using projections of various types. I have written a book chapter on the subject. You are making something out of nothing here.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[shropshire 0]

>

You saying that there have been walm periods before?.... must have been all those a/c units and aerosols and cars thay all had

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[kallend 2,184]

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>

You saying that there have been walm periods before?.... must have been all those a/c units and aerosols and cars thay all had

Nope - it was when the Sun finally came out at the end of the Dark Ages.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[shropshire 0]

Tarah ... tish

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[auburnguy 0]

Why cant people just admit that we have no real understanding of how the environment works and focus on figuring that out first.

"If you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in every day, and do it really half assed. That's the American way."
- Homer Simpson

[quade 4]

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Why cant people just admit that we have no real understanding of how the environment works and focus on figuring that out first.

Your question is incorrect in its premise and its conclusion implies we've simply stopped trying to refine the model. That's simply not the case.

We, the human race, do in fact, have a fairly good understanding of how the environment works. That said, it is a chaotic system and therefore difficult to predict very far into the future. That doesn't mean people aren't trying or aren't getting good results. What it means is that certain random variations can change the results fairly easily. Broad strokes close to "now" are fairly easy. Specifics further in the future are vastly more difficult. Predicting the weather for tomorrow is almost trivial. Predicting the weather for a month from now is almost impossible except in the broadest of terms.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[shropshire 0]

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Why cant people just admit that we have no real understanding of how the environment works and focus on figuring that out first.

Exactly

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[piper17 1]

***

"predicting the weather for tomorrow is almost trivial."

That is certainly not my experience as a pilot. Anything further out than 12 hours is almost useless for flight planning purposes and we don't refer to FSS (flight service) as "dial a lie" for nothing!

"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition"...Rudyard Kipling

[quade 4]

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***

"predicting the weather for tomorrow is almost trivial."

That is certainly not my experience as a pilot. Anything further out than 12 hours is almost useless for flight planning purposes and we don't refer to FSS (flight service) as "dial a lie" for nothing!

I may have flown one or two aircraft over the years myself. Hell, I may have taught a few people how to do it.

When you say, "Anything further out than 12 hours is almost useless for flight planning purposes . . . " that is, of course an exaggeration based on very specific incidents and the need for very specific conditions to be met. Remember, just a couple of degrees in temperature can be the difference between VFR and IFR in some places and at some times.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver