What is Happening in Africa as a Whole?

[Erroll 80]

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The minister for forrestry and water was on TV here in South Africa this morning she said the official figure for people without access to sanitation in South Africa is FOUR MILLION the amount without access to drinkable water is TWO MILLION. Considering the official figures are usually very conservative about such matters and South Africa is the most developed African nation on the continent it gives you an idea of the scale of the problem.

That puts things very nicely into perspective. Any talk of "a laptop for every child" is hugely premature.

[nerdgirl 0]

Jamile & Erroll -

Thank you for vividly making my point regarding the importance of institutions, i.e., infrastructure - physical and less tangible: "My speculation is that the critical variable between success and breakdown comes down to the strength of institutions (& not just the usual ones) and governance."

You may also want to consider the onging impact of Malaria, which infects some new 300-500M people each year & kills up to 1M, of which up to 80% are from Africa.

The specific mortality rate in sub-Saharan Africa measured among children under five years between 1992 and 1995 was 0.065 per 1000 per year (2 out of 216 deaths).

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Skyrad 0]

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"My speculation is that the critical variable between success and breakdown comes down to the strength of institutions (& not just the usual ones) and governance."

If by 'strength of institutions' you are talking about an absence of corruption you may be on the beginings of the right track. However thats only part of the problem, even if there was an abscence of corruption (which is pandemic) that still doesn't guarentee efficiency. Unfortunately South Africa is now suffering from the 'Affirmative Action' chickens comming home to roost. Elsewhere in Africa its nepotism and corruption.
Another aspect of the problems is that people will often say something is wrong without it even occuring to them to fix it or get someone in to fix it.
Classic example, I get to Jo'bug airport on friday night and pick up my hire car when I ask the guy behind the desk about the GPS I ordered weeks ago he says "ISSH... She is broken." he then stands there looking appologetic in a blank sort of way, so I ask him if he has another GPS. "I will go and look" he replies, he then comes back holding a battered looking GPS and says "It is a return... I think maybe she is broken too. Do you want it?" "Welcome to Africa!"
As for malaria yes in some areas of Africa it is a problem but so is war, famine, sleeping sickness, tracoma, drought, plague and a hundred other nasties. Throw in corruption inept government inflation (Zimbabwe has now got 3500% inflation although its the worst case other countries are suffering from inflation also) HIV/AIDS (when I was working here before seven years ago the unofficial rate was 60% infection in Joburg amoung the patients tested at the Joburg Gen over a 1.5 month period) in Natal the government is admitting to 30% infected. And its only got worse.
Then of course we have the sanitation and water situation.
Efficient government would be a good start anywhere but the people have also got alot of power if they work together. Also don't forget the huge amount of work the NGOs do.
Education whilst extremly important as Palastine and the middle east has demonstrated it is usless unless those highly educated young people have jobs to go into at the end of it.
Its a long donga covered red muddy road towards development and Africa is riding a road bike.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[vortexring 0]

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From your post I think an important area lies with expectation.

That's a fair point. The west, especially the US, is very results-centric, with little patience for anything.

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The problems with Africa are too complex and diverse to significantly catalogue here.

Indeed, however, I was trying to speak in broad terms.

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But an area perhaps worth considering is our expectation of a solution working now.

We tend to expect results now. When it comes to a nations society significantly changing we're normally talking at least decades. And a continents?

The African continent seems unique in the sense that these nations are almost too big. How would the continent look today if colonization hadn't occurred?

Even with the relative stability of colonization, which in its wake, barely 30-40 years ago, have these societies advanced as a whole?

Arguments can be made on all sides, and how much the world pays attention is another story. Being Europe's neighbor, Africa has a greater impact than in the west.

Well, I've puzzled over the idea of how Africa might be today without colonization and can't really imagine.

It is remarkable how many ex-colonized countries throughout the world are hotbeds of tension and conflict. Our imperial past coming back to bite us on the ass? It's also remarkable how America, with Britain hanging on, is trying to achieve similiar international imperialism today!

I feel many countries in Africa have to evolve for themselves, and perhaps not blame us too much for causing them so many problems in the first place. Simple as that.

A bit similiar to Islam and Muslims. Bit of evolution required.

How the West conducts itself is the crux to the problems.

'for it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' "chuck 'im out, the brute!" But it's "saviour of 'is country" when the guns begin to shoot.'

[nerdgirl 0]

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If by 'strength of institutions' you are talking about an absence of corruption you may be on the beginings of the right track. However thats only part of the problem, even if there was an abscence of corruption (which is pandemic) that still doesn't guarentee efficiency.

Good – let's talk about variables & factors that can be measured and compared versus anecdote or stereotypes, whether historically ‘observed’ or purely notional.

Conversely to looking for which factors have been associated with successes (as I posed in my initial response), one can look to factors that have been shown to associate w/failure of states -- worldwide.

There are a number of different analytical models that have been applied. The one w/which I am most familiar is the Political Instability Task Force, which has been in operation for over a decade and has done particularly well at predicting political instability: they assert >80% accuracy for the world’s countries from 1955 - 2003. See, e.g., Jay Ulfelder and Michael Lustik “Modeling Transitions to and from Democracy” and Jack A. Goldstone, et al., “A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability.”

What kind of factors (independent & dependent variables) are associated with political instability or decline from functioning political system to violence? And which aren’t?

On the positive correlation (to instability), the factors include:
NB: these are blatantly extracted (i.e., stolen verbatim) from Political Instability Task Force and folks at RAND.

Ideological factors
-- Contested homeland or “indivisible territory” occupied by competing ethnic “nations,” Where there is disagreement over a “homeland” or other “indivisible territory” ethnic conflict is much more likely. Remember the assertion made earlier w/r/t artificially imposed boundaries? The “Dark side of Democracy” hypothesis suggests that when two ethnonational movements claim their national boundaries include the same territory, ethnic cleansing can result. ( Michael Mann , The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing).
-- Religious and/or ethnic groups making competing claims. E.g., one group actively advocates the imposition of Sharia law; another group actively opposes it.
-- Discrimination/inequality on religious or ethnic lines to include formal institutional discrimination from the national or local government, informal institutional discrimination stemming from a competing group's possession of the government, or broad discrimination across a state. It might also include cases involving significant ethnic or religious-based inequality as a result of historical discrimination or other predicates. Conflicts are more likely to become violent when inequities coincide with religion or ethnicity (Pranab Bardhan, “Method in the Madness? A Political-Economy Analysis of the Ethnic Conflicts in the Less-Developed Countries,” World Development 25, no. 9 (September 1997): 1381-1398).
-- Religious extremism – One or more religious groups in the city is an extremist religion.

Economic factors
-- Negative or very low GDP growth .
-- High unemployment. (Klaus Deininger, “Causes and Consequences of Civil Strife: Micro-level Evidence from Uganda,” Policy Research Working Paper 3045 (World Bank)).
-- Sharp economic reversal/J-curve.
-- Widespread poverty/slums.
-- Recent development economics/economic reforms/austerity measures within the last 3 years. Development economics and other economic reforms (especially “market based” reforms) can increase inequality, creating grievances. (Henk-Jan Brinkman, "Preventing Civil Strife: An Important Role for Economic Policy,” Economic & Social Affairs, DESA Discussion Paper No. 20, (September 2001): 11; and Albert Keidel, “The Economic Basis for Social Unrest in China,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (May 26, 2005).
-- Poor infrastructure in at least three of the following areas: transportation, medical, waste disposal, potable water, and energy/power.
-- Dependence on primary commodity exports. i.e., raw materials such as ore, unrefined oil, grain, etc. Countries that have remained dependent on primary commodities for their exports face dangerously high risks of prolonged conflict. (Paul Collier, et al, Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy).

Military factors
-- Recent history of civil war w/in 5 years.
-- Existing rebel/terrorist/insurgent groups. Once a rebel group is constituted, it is difficult to demobilize (“STTR”), and its existence increases the likelihood of future conflict. (Collier, et al, Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy).
-- High availability of weapons – Availability of small arms and other weapons is “high,” i.e., city residents have or could easily come to have an average of at least 1 firearm per household (Collier, et al, Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy).

Political factors
-- Transitional or partial democracy. ‘Half-hearted’ democratization leads to instability; even well intentioned democratization too rapidly instituted can lead to instability. Extremely oppressive/repressive autocratically-ruled states have tended to be very stable (until strong man dies). Democratization increases susceptibility to terrorism (James A. Piazza, “Draining the Swamp: Democracy Promotion, State Failure, and Terrorism in 19 Middle Eastern Countries,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 30 no. 6 (June 2006): 521-539.)
-- History of significant repression within the last 20 years (originally included colonial occupation).
-- Significant refugees or internally displaced persons. Refugees and Diaspora can stress a city as well as maintaining grievances that would otherwise fade.
-- Rapid population growth (> 3.5 % per year).
-- Ethnic “dominance” (largest ethnic group 50-90% of pop). “The likelihood of civil war doubles when the largest ethnic group constitutes between 45% and 90% of the population” (James A. Sprigg, Jr., On the Use of Social, Economic, and Political Factors to Forecast Instability, February 2005, 18).
-- Change in ethnic balance, e.g., migration and/or fertility have resulted in significant change in the city's ethnic balance over the last 10 years.

Geographic Factors
-- “Bad neighborhood” (neighboring country war or civil war in last 5 years). Peaceful countries that are adjacent to countries engaged in civil war suffer from direct and long-term effects caused by the civil wars of their neighbors.
-- Oil or other “lootable” commodities/wealth increases the likelihood of conflict (Michael Ross, What do we Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?). “Lootable” commodities like gemstones and drugs do not make conflict more likely to occur, but they tend to lengthen existing conflicts.
-- Prone to significant natural disasters: floods, earthquakes, mudslides, tsunamis, etc. (aka a Jared Diamond-esque “geographic luck”). Natural disasters, especially in countries with a history of unrest, can lead to unrest (A. Cooper Drury and Richard S. Olson, “Disasters and Political Unrest: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Contingencies & Crisis Management, 6, no. 3 (September 1998): 153-161).
-- Significant trend of declining fresh water, crop land, or calories per capita for the residents of the city.

Factors that have a negative correlation (i.e. those factors which retard instability) include:
-- Inter-ethnic or inter-(other identity) civic associations. Inter-ethnic civic associations are shown to reduce violence, improve communication between potential adversaries and with authorities, and help mitigate the severity of unrest during violent periods (United States Institute of Peace, Lethal Ethnic Riots: Lessons from India and Beyond, 2003).
-- Tradition of effective civilian control of military.
-- Presence of foreign troops, e.g., UN peacekeepers.
-- Mature democracy. At minimum, has been a democracy for at least 10 years and has had at least two electoral transfers of power deemed legitimate by international observers.
-- The country has a strong state, capable of and actually extending its authority over the entire sovereign territory of the country. Indicates both state capacity and significant possession of forces of order.
-- Government perceived as legitimate by citizen/resident perceptions of legitimacy (irrelevant to perceptions of international observers). People have more patience when they perceive that they have a responsive government (Kirk S. Bowman and Jerrold D. Green, “Urbanization and Political Instability in the Middle East,” in Population, Poverty, and Politics in Middle East).
-- Rule of Law - “the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence.”

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Erroll 80]

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....Throw in corruption inept government inflation (Zimbabwe has now got 3500% inflation...

Zimbabwe's official inflation rate is 66000%.

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Three of South Africa’s top retailers with outlets in Zimbabwe —- Shoprite, Pick n Pay and Spar — have almost ceased operating in that country.

Willem Steenkamp, Pick n Pay’s spokesman, said: “In our interim results, in August, we recorded zero revenue for our Zimbabwe shops.”

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A US dollar officially costs about Z$30000 and the average working Zimbabwean earns about Z$50- million a month.
“If you want a US dollar on the black market, you would be more likely to pay Z$5-million, and that’s closer to the reality.

In the early '70s one US dollar would buy you only 70 South African cents. Today you will get about 764 cents for your dollar.

The winds of change they are a-blowing...