lawrocket 3 #1 February 6, 2008 As you may be aware, the Democratic nomination is not ENTIRELY up to the popular vote/caucuses. It takes 2025 total delegates to win the Democratic Party presidential nomination. Most of the delegates are decided by the population. These pledged delegates number 3,253. However, the Democrats have a system of 796 super delegates. The "super delegates" consist of democrats in Congress and democratic governors, as well as democratic party leaders. The super delegate system allows the party to maintain some control over who runs as president. It accounts for roughly 20% of the delegates at the Dem convention. According to some new reports, Obama is leading the delegate count by 13 delegates - 847-834. (The Obama campaign says 908-884 pledged delegates to date.) Back to the 796 super delegates. Assuming that Hillary Clinton has only 1400 delegates moving into the convention and Barack Obama has 1853. The choice is left up to the Super Delegates to decide who will be the democratic presidential nominee. It is fully conceivable that Hillary Clinton could receive 625 Super Delegate votes - thus putting her on top. I cannot see any way that Obama would be better at backroom dealings that Clinton would be. What would be the reaction to this? My, my, my. The Democrat convention is going to be an AMAZING thing to see. Late AUgust in Denver is going to see some real fireworks. My wife is hotter than your wife. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
quade 4 #2 February 6, 2008 Unless I'm wrong, this will be the first brokered convention of either party since 1971? Refreshing actually.quade - The World's Most Boring Skydiver Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lawrocket 3 #3 February 6, 2008 A little history on Super Delegates. Yes. Until 1972, party nominees were chosen by convention delegates. The Dems opened primaries after Humphrey - he didn't run in any primaries and got the nod, anyway. So in 1972, the primary system found McGovern - who got his ass kicked in the genral election. In 1982, the Dems decided that they needed to field candidates that they, the party leaders, could stand behind, while giving some control to the primaries. In other words, they needed to be able to nix popular candidates who couldn't win. So, super delegates. In the past, there were always controvesies about back room dealings, etc. If the second-place finisher ended up being the nominee, there is NO WAY to paint a pretty picture of it. Accusations of bribes and the like are sure to follow - leveled by the person left behind. If Obama comes in in front, and is not nominated, I would think that he'd have a bit to say. I would also think that his supporters would have a much more difficult time voting for a person whom they voted against and suspected received the nomination through devious means. This, Mr. Quade, will get good... My wife is hotter than your wife. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Muenkel 0 #4 February 6, 2008 Why 'refreshing'? Brokered conventions by 'me, me, me' politicians is refreshing? Isn't that one of the things you didn't like about the Bush administration? This isn't a pop at you, I just don't understand your exact point. _________________________________________ Chris Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
quade 4 #5 February 6, 2008 QuoteWhy 'refreshing'? Because this will be the first convention in a very LONG time where the outcome isn't known before the convention takes place. It will actually be worth watching. Or at least it will be if things continue to be as close as they currently are.quade - The World's Most Boring Skydiver Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,184 #6 February 6, 2008 Quote In 1982, the Dems decided that they needed to field candidates that they, the party leaders, could stand behind, while giving some control to the primaries. In other words, they needed to be able to nix popular candidates who couldn't win. So, super delegates. ... And we've seen how successful that has been for the DEMs since 1982.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #7 February 6, 2008 Quote And we've seen how successful that has been for the DEMs since 1982. Well, they're 1-2. Lost in 1988 (which was going to be hard after Reagan), won in 1992, lost in 2000 by the narrowest of margins. If they can pull it out this year, they've even. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Muenkel 0 #8 February 6, 2008 Got it. Thank you. _________________________________________ Chris Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,184 #9 February 6, 2008 Quote Quote And we've seen how successful that has been for the DEMs since 1982. Well, they're 1-2. Lost in 1988 (which was going to be hard after Reagan), won in 1992, lost in 2000 by the narrowest of margins. If they can pull it out this year, they've even. Really? 84 -R 88-R 92-D 96-D 00-R 04-R If they win in 08 won't it be 3:4?... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #10 February 7, 2008 incumbency advantage was pretty strong in 84, 96, 04. So I wasn't counting them. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrewwhyte 1 #11 February 7, 2008 A brokered convention is a good thing when there are more than two candidates and it goes to a second or third ballot. When the party brass whores themselves out prior to the first ballot, not so much. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BillyVance 35 #12 February 7, 2008 I was just wondering... Has the national party declared Florida's delegate votes null and void, or are just not going to give them to the winner of the primary, as punishment for the state holding its primary too early for its liking? Did I read something similar happening in Michigan as well? I don't understand politics very well and if I took a course in college on it, I would probably get a D or F. I was also wondering if withholding those delegate votes would affect the candidates' ability to reach that magic total number?"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
