Gotta wait another 6 months before you can say "recession."

[lawrocket 3]

The US economy grew at just .6 percent last quarter. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/economy.html

Weak growth, yes, but not negative growth. And since the third quarter grew at 4.9 percent, we couldn't even say recession this time.

It turns out, according to the story that 2.2% for the years is the worst the economy has been over 12 months - in five years. And the .6 percent growth is the worst growth we have seen - in 9 months.

Consumer spending increased only 2.9% - the wrost since 2003.

Now, how gloomy does that sound? Things were worse from mid 2000 - mid 2001 than now. Things apparently weren't too swell in 2003, either.

And yet, it seems like people think this is so much worse. Why? Is it because of the housing market?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Amazon 7]

Quote

And yet, it seems like people think this is so much worse. Why? Is it because of the housing market?

Currently the home forclosures are at all time record levels.... that does have an effect on those who are losing their homes...or those who know them.



http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/06/real_estate/foreclosure_delinquencies/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The rate of homeowners going into foreclosure or falling dangerously behind on their mortgage payments hit record highs in the third quarter - signs the real estate meltdown will worsen over the next year, a banking group said Thursday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that 0.78 percent of mortgages entered the foreclosure process in the three months ended Sept. 30. That figure is up from 0.65 percent in the second quarter - the previous record high - and more than double the 0.32 percent rate a year earlier.

The homeowners entering foreclosure brought the total percentage of loans in the foreclosure process to a record high as well of 1.69 percent.

The report also showed that 5.59 percent of borrowers are now at least 30 days late making their mortgage payments, which is just below the record high of 5.68 percent set in 1986. And a record 1.26 percent of the borrowers were 90-plus days late, putting them at significant risk of going into foreclosure.


Doug Duncan, chief economist for the lenders' trade group, said those rising delinquencies rates suggest that the problems have not hit bottom. He therefore expects late payments and foreclosures could continue to increase through the third quarter of 2008.

[Lefty 0]

Well, every house that gets foreclosed on is an opportunity for people like me to get a good deal. I just hope these trends continue until I get back from Iraq with some change in my pocket.

Provoking a reaction isn't the same thing as saying something meaningful.
-Calvin

[skydyvr 0]

Maybe the recession will hold off just long enough to blame it on Obama or Clinton within days of his/her inauguration -- as was done to Bush in 2000.

. . =(_8^(1)

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Quote

And yet, it seems like people think this is so much worse. Why? Is it because of the housing market?

Yes, I think so.
If you lose your job and times get tough, it is bad; but they can get better. If you keep your job, your hours have not been cut back, but you still aren't making it, well then despair is your companion isn't it?

[Para_Frog 1]

What the market hasn't figured out yet is that the inflation of house prices to - I think the national average was 40+% - has to correct.

It will eventually. The other economic forces in place are adjusting accordingly.

When the lenders concede that they fucked up, and finish writing off their Billion dollar looses, housing prices will come back down from mars.

Then things will be swell.

- Harvey, BASE 1232
TAN-I, IAD-I, S&TA

BLiNC Magazine Team Member

[joedirt 0]

Quote

And yet, it seems like people think this is so much worse. Why? Is it because of the housing market?

Yes. I wouldn't bet either way that we'll have a recession... obviusly many people think that recession is a subjective term, of course their wrong. What the stock market might correct in a couple of weeks though, can take housing markets years. Since both residential and commercial contruction were quite an influential part of our GDP recently, it very well could fall down to the negative. Expecting market situatons to fall back to sustainable prices isn't "doom and gloom" in my book. It's just smart investing, and part of a cycle. It's actually what investors should look for. When people think of their primary residence as an investment, then this is the attitude you get. Many people in their twenties have only seen housing prices go up untill this year. If the economy does grow while real estate falls it will be a great opportunity for those who are prepared.

Maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps our FEDeral government can fix all our markets in a continually upward direction... but that's not what i'll bet my money on.

[lawrocket 3]

Quote

What the market hasn't figured out yet is that the inflation of house prices to - I think the national average was 40+% - has to correct.

True. I was at a group last week with several people involved in real estate in one form or another. They all commented on how the market is "insane" and that things are "just crazy" and went on and on.

When it got to my turn to comment I made the comment that I view it much differently. This is not a "crazy" market. That was in 2004-2005. What we have now is a "Return to Sanity" market.

I thought my position would be pretty controversial. Nobody, however, disagreed. It was like I pointed out the white elephant.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kelpdiver 2]

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And yet, it seems like people think this is so much worse. Why? Is it because of the housing market?

Trouble now is always worse than trouble 6 years ago. We don't know where the bottom is yet, and of course in the last one we were distracted by the concerns of having another jet plane crashed into us.