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rushmc

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Now that is scarry!!!!:o



Is it at all possible for you to not make a post with a misspelling in it? This post was only four words for fucks sake.

SPELLCHECKER...it's your friend.


It's a mark of authenticity.
Provoking a reaction isn't the same thing as saying something meaningful.
-Calvin

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Now that is scarry!!!!:o



Is it at all possible for you to not make a post with a misspelling in it? This post was only four words for fucks sake.

SPELLCHECKER...it's your friend.


It's a mark of authenticity.


:D:D
...

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Edited to add; I have not "defined' civil war in any way. That has been your work on this site, not mine:)



I am quite happy to go along with the standard definition, which is a violent conflict between factions within a country.

From Washington Post, April 9, 2006

James D. Fearon - Stanford University


Does the conflict in Iraq amount to a civil war? In many ways, the public debate over this question is largely political. Calling Iraq a "civil war" implies yet another failure for the Bush administration and adds force to the question of whether U.S. troops still have a constructive role to play.

Politics aside, however, the definition of civil war is not arbitrary. For some -- and perhaps especially Americans -- the term brings to mind all-out historical conflicts along the lines of the U.S. or Spanish civil wars. According to this notion, there will not be civil war in Iraq until we see mass mobilization of sectarian communities behind more or less conventional armies.

But a more standard definition is common today:

1) Civil war refers to a violent conflict between organized groups within a country that are fighting over control of the government, one side's separatist goals, or some divisive government policy.

By this measure, the war in Iraq has been a civil war not simply since the escalation of internecine killings following the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February, but at least since the United States handed over formal control to an interim Iraqi government in June 2004.

Here's why: Although the insurgents target the U.S. military, they are also fighting the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government and killing large numbers of Iraqis. There is little reason to believe that if the United States were suddenly to withdraw its forces, they would not continue their battle to control or shape the government.

Political scientists who study civil war have proposed various refinements to this rough definition to deal with borderline cases. One issue concerns how much killing has to occur -- and at what rate.

2) For a conflict to qualify as a civil war, most academics use the threshold of 1,000 dead, which leads to the inclusion of a good number of low-intensity rural insurgencies.

Current estimates suggest that more than 25,000 Iraqis have been killed in fighting since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003 -- a level and rate of killing that is comparable to numerous other conflicts that are commonly described as civil wars, such as those in Lebanon (1975-1990) and Sri Lanka (beginning in 1983).

The organization -- or rather, disorganization -- of the warring communities in Iraq means that a large-scale conventional conflict along the lines of the U.S. Civil War is unlikely to develop. More probable is a gradual escalation of the current "dirty war" between neighborhood militias that have loose ties to national political factions and are fighting almost as much within sectarian lines as across them.

This is roughly what happened in Lebanon and at a lower level in Turkish cities in the late 1970s. Ethnic cleansing will occur not as a systematic, centrally directed campaign (as in Bosnia), but as a result of people moving to escape danger.

And there's another twist to the terminology:

3) If the conflict in Iraq becomes purely a matter of violence between Sunni and Shiite communities driven by revenge and hatred rather than by political goals, many political scientists would say that it is something other than civil war.

Almost no one, for example, calls the Hindu-Muslim violence in India a civil war.

A civil war has to involve attempts to grab power at the center of government or in a given region, or to use violence to change some major government policy.

In Iraq's case, however, the vacuum of power at the center means that communal violence will inevitably be tied to struggles for political power and control.

A final complication concerns the nature of international involvement. Some argue, for example, that the war in Bosnia should be seen as an interstate war rather than a civil war, since the Bosnian Serb forces were armed and directed largely by Belgrade. Post-Mobutu violence in Congo is often termed a civil war, even though fighters have been closely tied to armies from neighboring states.

4) A conflict may be both a civil and an interstate war at the same time.

The Vietnam War, for instance, clearly comprised both a civil war in the South and an interstate war involving the North, the South and the United States.
...

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How long should it take to get a stable government seated?



That depends. In this area, I am personally inclined to be more patient and more comfortable with hurdles than Congress (reflecting their constituents, perhaps … or not?) and than was reflected/implied/hoped for in President Bush’s and the VP’s rhetoric pre-and immediately-post execution of OIF. Remember the short-lived change from “GWOT” to “the Long War”?

CPA handed off control to Iraqis in June 2004. Over three years later, how much has been accomplished?

Not that I’m endorsing it in any way: dictatorships can be a *very* stable governments. Representative and parliamentary democracies are comparably messy and subject to change (that’s one more reason for a strong military corps and a robust civil service that extends beyond a single administration … or two or three).

How long do *you* think it should take? When should the Iraqis be compelled to take responsibility for their own government? (A corollary of that argument is frequently put worth with regard to cutting/slashing/eliminating domestic assistance programs.) There’s also an isolationist argument (definitely more John Bolton than nerdgirl) that says that we should let the Iraqis to determine their own destiny and direct our energy to taking care of America. Otoh, should we just make Iraq the 51st state? :o

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

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I said in a thread about 4 months ago, something to the effect that the last wave of violence by AQ was their Hail Mary pass at the end of the game, with no real hope of winning.



I do so sincerely hope that you’re correct.

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Unless their munitions are being resupplied they have to run out at some time, but then again, they may be holding those WMDs in reserve.;)



I’m not sure that I accept the necessity of re-supplying munitions from external actors.

Considering that the GAO estimated some 600,000 tons (“and possibly millions” according to SecDef Gates) of unsecured munitions became available after the initial invasion in 2003, I don’t foresee a scarcity any time soon.

In March 2007, SecDef Gates said: “fundamentally, the entire country was one big ammo dump” (quoted from official DoD transcript: http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=3911)
He went on to acknowledge the difficulty of the task of securing those munitions: "We're doing our best to try and find them but, given the expanse of the country and all the other tasks that the military is trying to carry out there, it's a huge task."

Beyond the civil war/insurgency, there’s another HUGE problem – those unsecured munitions are being used for the IEDS have caused over 64% of US soldier, sailor, airmen, and marine deaths.

There’s also the 190,000 weapons that the US taxpayers paid for that are unaccounted for, including “110,000 AK-47 rifles, 80,000 pistols, 135,000 items of body armor and 115,000 helmets reported as issued to Iraqi forces as of September 22, 2005."
More in “Stabilizing Iraq: DOD Cannot Ensure That U.S.-Funded. Equipment Has Reached Iraqi Security Forces.”

Some of which have been alleged by Turkish officials to now by in the possession and use of PKK.

Nonetheless, there have been reports of insurgents in Iraq getting weapons from the usual suspects. In international arms trade that doesn’t mean Iran; it means Eastern Europe (i.e., “New Europe”) and Africa.

Low level insurgencies don’t require the quantity and kind of munitions that traditional “Fulda Gap”-style conflicts or US forces in Vietnam did.

As far as WMDs “in reserve,” I don’t see any such indication. If you do, I would be very interested in the sources.

Documents recovered in Afghanistan indicated that Big AQ considers that chemical and radiological agents tactical weapons (versus bio and nuclear as strategic).

Reportedly the Al-Abud network in Iraq tried unsuccessfully to make nerve and blister agents (see Comprehensive Report by the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq's WMD: Iraq's Chemical Warfare Program; CIA: Washington, D.C., 30 September 2004). The Al-Abud network was formed late 2003 in response to OIF by the Jaysh Muhammed (JM). They recruited an “inexperienced Baghdad chemist” who was unsuccessful in initial attempts to produce tabun [dumb choice, imo; hardest G-agent to make, speculate choice based on available precursors] and the vesicant nitrogen mustard [again, kinda a big ‘huh?’ imo]. Precursors were obtained from “chemical suk district” and “farmers” who looted state companies. Initial attempts to produce traditional agents were unsuccessful, so the insurgents/terrorists shifted to improvised agents – unspecified formula “napalm,” which was to be filled into conventional mortars obtained from JM contacts. and sodium fluoride acetate, [aka “Compound 1080,” which is a *very* water-soluble and toxic rodenticide].

Between Oct 2006 and June 2007, there were at least 15 incidents of use of chlorine gas. It became a “signature tactic” for insurgents in AQ-linked groups in Al Anbar province. While the majority of civilian fatalities were due to concussive and blast injuries from accompanying improvised explosives, more 65 US service members were sickened during the 3 Jun 07 chlorine-IED attack in Diyala. Overall an estimated 300 US service members have affected in some manner (no deaths/no severe casualties). Intent/impact has been to (1) terrorize civilians and (2) complicate military operations; it’s become a ‘forced multiplier.” A third, probably unintended, consequence has been outbreaks of cholera across Iraq due to polluted drinking water (which may end up killing more people than the chlorine-IEDs).

There was also the “al Mobtakhar” device (generation of HCN or CNCl) and the April 2004 AQ-affiliated Jordanian stash intercepted w/large amounts of sodium azide (potential to make another improvised choking agent).

If Big AQ or Little AQ (networked affiliates) had it, I see nothing to suggest they would not use it.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

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because it does not fit his world view template, I will. (since it does fit MY world view template)

I still await the "civil war" the Bush doctrine "denier's" predicted

http://www.foxnews.com/...,2933,317025,00.html


this post is intentionally meant to provoke the Bush bashers

Hey, at least I am honest



It says a lot when a person finds a perverse sence of humour in a semantics game over the backs of thousands of dead and severly disabled people.

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As far as WMDs “in reserve,” I don’t see any such indication. If you do, I would be very interested in the sources.

I'll let you do the source finding. You seem to do an excellent job. Somehow, I think that you are in your element. Also, you seem to hold no bias in your reports.

Based on your statistics about munitions, and the fact that we can't find them all, I would also present that as a point that the WMDs could be anywhere, and some probably do exist, thus shutting down the 'No WMDs' argument.

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Based on your statistics about munitions, and the fact that we can't find them all, I would also present that as a point that the WMDs could be anywhere, and some probably do exist, thus shutting down the 'No WMDs' argument.



Rather perverse logic there, Royd. Being unable to find things is NOT proof that they exist.

Have you any idea how much effort the US wasted expended trying to prove GWB/Rumsfeld/Cheney/Powell right.
...

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It says a lot when a person finds a perverse sence of humour in a semantics game over the backs of thousands of dead and severly disabled people.



Why are you doing it then? I sure as hell am not.
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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Rather perverse logic there, Royd. Being unable to find things is NOT proof that they exist.
Quote



Funny, you use this type of logic to support your GWing position

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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> Based on your statistics about munitions, and the fact that we can't
>find them all, I would also present that as a point that the WMDs could
>be anywhere, and some probably do exist, thus shutting down the 'No
>WMDs' argument.

Why - you're right! And following the same logic, since we can't find any evidence of Dick Cheney's guilt, and since he could have done _anything_ - he must have done something. Thus shooting down the whole "Cheney is innocent" thing. The very fact that we can find nothing to pin on him PROVES he is guilty!

I like this sort of logic!

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Rather perverse logic there, Royd. Being unable to find things is NOT proof that they exist.

Quote



Funny, you use this type of logic to support your GWing position



It used to be that you reserved your most "Through the Looking Glass" posts for Fridays. ARe you now doing Mondays too?
...

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I'll let you do the source finding.



How incredibly generous of you! Who wouldn't love to trawl the web looking for evidence to back up your unsupported claims?

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Based on your statistics about munitions, and the fact that we can't find them all, I would also present that as a point that the WMDs could be anywhere, and some probably do exist, thus shutting down the 'No WMDs' argument.



I think you own an enormous stash of donkey porn. I've never seen any in your house, but that doesn't mean it's not in a lock up somewhere that I haven't found yet. Since that's almost certainly where the porn is hidden then you can't make any claims about not owning any donkey porn and expect to be taken seriously.
Do you want to have an ideagasm?

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Rather perverse logic there, Royd. Being unable to find things is NOT proof that they exist.



Funny, you use this type of logic to support your GWing position


Where?
:)
How is that?:D
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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Edited to add; I have not "defined' civil war in any way. That has been your work on this site, not mine:)



I am quite happy to go along with the standard definition, which is a violent conflict between factions within a country.

From Washington Post, April 9, 2006

James D. Fearon - Stanford University


Does the conflict in Iraq amount to a civil war? In many ways, the public debate over this question is largely political. Calling Iraq a "civil war" implies yet another failure for the Bush administration and adds force to the question of whether U.S. troops still have a constructive role to play.

Politics aside, however, the definition of civil war is not arbitrary. For some -- and perhaps especially Americans -- the term brings to mind all-out historical conflicts along the lines of the U.S. or Spanish civil wars. According to this notion, there will not be civil war in Iraq until we see mass mobilization of sectarian communities behind more or less conventional armies.

But a more standard definition is common today:

1) Civil war refers to a violent conflict between organized groups within a country that are fighting over control of the government, one side's separatist goals, or some divisive government policy.

By this measure, the war in Iraq has been a civil war not simply since the escalation of internecine killings following the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February, but at least since the United States handed over formal control to an interim Iraqi government in June 2004.

Here's why: Although the insurgents target the U.S. military, they are also fighting the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government and killing large numbers of Iraqis. There is little reason to believe that if the United States were suddenly to withdraw its forces, they would not continue their battle to control or shape the government.

Political scientists who study civil war have proposed various refinements to this rough definition to deal with borderline cases. One issue concerns how much killing has to occur -- and at what rate.

2) For a conflict to qualify as a civil war, most academics use the threshold of 1,000 dead, which leads to the inclusion of a good number of low-intensity rural insurgencies.

Current estimates suggest that more than 25,000 Iraqis have been killed in fighting since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003 -- a level and rate of killing that is comparable to numerous other conflicts that are commonly described as civil wars, such as those in Lebanon (1975-1990) and Sri Lanka (beginning in 1983).

The organization -- or rather, disorganization -- of the warring communities in Iraq means that a large-scale conventional conflict along the lines of the U.S. Civil War is unlikely to develop. More probable is a gradual escalation of the current "dirty war" between neighborhood militias that have loose ties to national political factions and are fighting almost as much within sectarian lines as across them.

This is roughly what happened in Lebanon and at a lower level in Turkish cities in the late 1970s. Ethnic cleansing will occur not as a systematic, centrally directed campaign (as in Bosnia), but as a result of people moving to escape danger.

And there's another twist to the terminology:

3) If the conflict in Iraq becomes purely a matter of violence between Sunni and Shiite communities driven by revenge and hatred rather than by political goals, many political scientists would say that it is something other than civil war.

Almost no one, for example, calls the Hindu-Muslim violence in India a civil war.

A civil war has to involve attempts to grab power at the center of government or in a given region, or to use violence to change some major government policy.

In Iraq's case, however, the vacuum of power at the center means that communal violence will inevitably be tied to struggles for political power and control.

A final complication concerns the nature of international involvement. Some argue, for example, that the war in Bosnia should be seen as an interstate war rather than a civil war, since the Bosnian Serb forces were armed and directed largely by Belgrade. Post-Mobutu violence in Congo is often termed a civil war, even though fighters have been closely tied to armies from neighboring states.

4) A conflict may be both a civil and an interstate war at the same time.

The Vietnam War, for instance, clearly comprised both a civil war in the South and an interstate war involving the North, the South and the United States.


Good, this is a great start to get you on record so specifically. I wonder what your definition will be tomorrow seeing how this is not happening to any extend over there right now.
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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How is that?



Stunning. Simply stunning.

Selective memory in action is truly amazing to behold.

Anyway, back to my original question, where? Show a specific instance where kallend claims that GW is caused by humans just because there is no evidence that human are not causing it. Just one specific instance.

On second thoughts, forget it. We've been down this road before so I know how much you hate providing any eveidence whatsoever to back up your claims.
Do you want to have an ideagasm?

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How is that?



Stunning. Simply stunning.

Selective memory in action is truly amazing to behold.



Yes, it is. It most certainly is.....
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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How is that?



Stunning. Simply stunning.

Selective memory in action is truly amazing to behold.



Yes, it is. It most certainly is.....



Anyway, back to my original question, where? Show a specific instance where kallend claims that GW is caused by humans just because there is no evidence that human are not causing it. Just one specific instance.

On second thoughts, forget it. We've been down this road before so I know how much you hate providing any eveidence whatsoever to back up your claims.

Repeated because you replied before my edit came up
Do you want to have an ideagasm?

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How is that?



Stunning. Simply stunning.

Selective memory in action is truly amazing to behold.


Yes, it is. It most certainly is.....


Anyway, back to my original question, where? Show a specific instance where kallend claims that GW is caused by humans just because there is no evidence that human are not causing it. Just one specific instance.

On second thoughts, forget it. We've been down this road before so I know how much you hate providing any eveidence whatsoever to back up your claims.

Repeated because you replied before my edit came up


I am not surprised you dont get it but here, let me see if I can help you out.

There is no proof that man is causing GWing. There is theory, conjecture and hypothesis, which is based on conflicting data and computer models. So, buy the very logic he uses (and all other GWing alarmist use) Since no one can prove to them that man is not doing it, (causing GWing) man, by default, must be causing it. See how easy that was?

If one chooses to use convoluted logic they should expect it being used against them, dont you think?:)
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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There is no proof that man is causing GWing. There is theory, conjecture and hypothesis, which is based on conflicting data and computer models. So, buy the very logic he uses (and all other GWing alarmist use) Since no one can prove to them that man is not doing it, (causing GWing) man, by default, must be causing it. See how easy that was?



Easy,but wrong. You're approaching the subject from a fundamental lack of understanding.

Show me an actual post from Kallend or Bill that shows they believe in man made GW not because of actual evidence for man made GW but because of lack of evidence for the alternative.

While you're at it, maybe you could finally tell me who thinks Hansen is a loony.
Do you want to have an ideagasm?

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You're approaching the subject from a fundamental lack of understanding.

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:D:D:D



It did not take you very long to get to the only "you " understand and anybody not agreeing with you is somehow less informed.

What would most people call this kind of attitude?

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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