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billvon

Good news re: gas prices and oil dependence

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In honesty I cant find where I got the info he wants but I really dont care.



Right, because what you wrote back in August was arrant nonsense and there never was a source.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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>In fact, I know of no economy class car that is lighter today, than
>their predecessor from 10 years ago.

Right. You generally have to redesign a car to make it lighter; then it's a different car.



I don't even know what the heck you mean by that. Chevy replaced the Cavalier with the Cobalt. It's not that different of a car, and it's still heavier.

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>but the cars designed for economy have gotten super heavy over
>the past 20 years.

Average vehicle weight has gone up somewhat, but that's due primarily to the popularity of SUV's, and the addition of a lot of stuff (airbags etc) over the years.



I was not talking about SUVs. I was refining my statement about vehicles in general over the past 20 years. They've all gotten heavier.

However, for many of those vehicles (i.e. anything bigger than a compact), it didn't matter because they were not an economy design.

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But it's been pretty slow, and a given class of car (say, a 2 door sedan) isn't much heavier than it was in 1980 - and it is MUCH lighter than the same car was in 1965.



That's an apples and oranges comparison though. Today's vehicles true linage don't go back much beyond the early 80s, with a few exceptions.

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However, I expect the trend towards heavier vehicles to accelerate as heavier engine systems (hybrids mainly) become more commonplace.



That seems like a reasonable prediction, though I'm reminded of that letter you posted by those people that thought it could just be an easy task to start making cars with carbon fiber and titanium...

On another note, do you have a line set on the Honda FCX Clarity that's going to be on trials in SoCal? That thing looks sharp and I'd love to hear about how it's going when it rolls out.
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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>though I'm reminded of that letter you posted by those people that
>thought it could just be an easy task to start making cars with carbon fiber
>and titanium...

That's the Amory Lovins crowd, and it's certainly true that you _can_ do that. However, a battery vehicle made with carbon fiber might, overall, be heavier due to the batteries.

>On another note, do you have a line set on the Honda FCX Clarity that's
> going to be on trials in SoCal? That thing looks sharp and I'd love to hear
>about how it's going when it rolls out.

It will be interesting, especially since it's basically a battery electric vehicle with a fuel cell 'booster.' We'll get a lot of EV experience out of it.

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Bill,

Was wondering if you had listen to Huckabee talking on the changes we need to make to get off oil. He really seems to have the thought that it would take 10 yrs (or less) to be in a postion to tell the oil producers "we need your oil as much as we need you sand". He also pointed out that if we start getting serious about alternate fuels that in itself would push down oil prices. But THEN we have to stick to the plan........and we have no will to do that.

But at least he's talking about it.
Kevin Keenan is my hero, a double FUP, he does so much with so little

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Bill,

Was wondering if you had listen to Huckabee talking on the changes we need to make to get off oil. He really seems to have the thought that it would take 10 yrs (or less) to be in a postion to tell the oil producers "we need your oil as much as we need you sand". He also pointed out that if we start getting serious about alternate fuels that in itself would push down oil prices. But THEN we have to stick to the plan........and we have no will to do that.

But at least he's talking about it.



I agree. I didn't hear Huckabee but I've said for a long time that I'd be willing to pay $5 per gallon if someone would guarantee me that in XX number of years we'd be able to tell the Middle East and Venzuala to S&%k a d&%k.
Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

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Bill,

Was wondering if you had listen to Huckabee talking on the changes we need to make to get off oil. He really seems to have the thought that it would take 10 yrs (or less) to be in a postion to tell the oil producers "we need your oil as much as we need you sand". He also pointed out that if we start getting serious about alternate fuels that in itself would push down oil prices. But THEN we have to stick to the plan........and we have no will to do that.

But at least he's talking about it.



I agree. I didn't hear Huckabee but I've said for a long time that I'd be willing to pay $5 per gallon if someone would guarantee me that in XX number of years we'd be able to tell the Middle East and Venzuala to S&%k a d&%k.



I would like to be able to do the same but with out the $5 gas..The reserves exist here, the tree huggers just will not let us drill for it.

Cuba is off our coast drilling where we cant. France has what 80% of thier electricity from nukes? The tree huggers killed that years ago too.

On another note, 1 company has applied to build a new nuke plant in the US. If it gets licensed 5 more are ready to apply. We can only hope
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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>I didn't hear Huckabee but I've said for a long time that I'd be willing to
>pay $5 per gallon if someone would guarantee me that in XX number of
>years we'd be able to tell the Middle East and Venzuala to S&%k a d&%k.

Would be nice. Unfortunately, there are so many "anti" movements out there (anti big government, anti environmentalist, anti conservation) that nothing major is going to happen any time soon. We'll make some small improvements, and in five years you'll be paying $5 a gallon for gas - and giving the Middle East more money than ever.

When we as a nation put our mind to something (Apollo, the Manhattan Project) we can accomplish a lot. We no longer have the will. It would take a threat far scarier than $5 a gallon gas to make us take the problem seriously.

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>The reserves exist here, the tree huggers just will not let us drill for it.

Damn right. There will come a day (say, when we are at war with China) where the survival of our nation will depend on having those reserves available. Using them now, when we have some of the cheapest gas on the planet, is beyond stupid.

>France has what 80% of thier electricity from nukes? The tree huggers
>killed that years ago too.

Some good signs there. There's a lot of interest in nuclear power plants; I'd expect to see a few more applications in the works soon.

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>Was wondering if you had listen to Huckabee talking on the changes
>we need to make to get off oil.

I read some of his stuff on oil independence. He has some good ideas, but the cornerstone of his plan seems to be that he would "like to believe that people would start thinking that it's their responsibility to do it." I hope so too, but I don't see that as the cornerstone of a plan to get us off oil. We have the voluntary thing going now, and it hasn't been working very well.

He makes a good point that we could solve the problem right now (or at least within the decade) if everyone just made better choices. But people often don't want to hear that. They want a solution handed to them, one that allows them to still keep their house at 68 degrees in August, pull their boat to the lake every other weekend and not think about it much. And while such solutions exist, they are neither cheap nor easy - and he seems to not want to spend much money on it.

So I'm not too hopeful. I think it's great that he's looking at it though.

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Now that it is profitable the private sector is working like crazy to develop new "green" and more fuel efficient technologies. Tens of billions of dollars are being spent on r&d. Lots of extremely exciting technologies toward new fuels and fuel efficiency are in the pipeline, it will just be a few years until they become available.

EDIT: Here is an example.
http://www.johnsonems.com/technology.html
"If you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in every day, and do it really half assed. That's the American way."
- Homer Simpson

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Some good signs there. There's a lot of interest in nuclear power plants; I'd expect to see a few more applications in the works soon.



Something we agree on. I found on the EEI site somewhere where the 5 followers were going to wait and see how the first application goes
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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>The reserves exist here, the tree huggers just will not let us drill for it.

Damn right. There will come a day (say, when we are at war with China) where the survival of our nation will depend on having those reserves available. Using them now, when we have some of the cheapest gas on the planet, is beyond stupid.

>France has what 80% of thier electricity from nukes? The tree huggers
>killed that years ago too.

Some good signs there. There's a lot of interest in nuclear power plants; I'd expect to see a few more applications in the works soon.



On another note you post here like the oil here is very limited. It is estimated that the reserves under US control are larger than those in the middle east. I think the war analogy is a bit off
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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When we as a nation put our mind to something (Apollo, the Manhattan Project) we can accomplish a lot. We no longer have the will. It would take a threat far scarier than $5 a gallon gas to make us take the problem seriously.



The following is a re-post of an idea that I mention awhile back but it didn't get much traction....trying again.

With Gates/Buffet money say 1 billion to the group that solves X that relates to renewable energy and a public campain, could we move this forward? I believe so. Bill's right short of REAL pain we seem to lack the drive to do much. We are fighting wars, people are dying and to a large degree it's for cheap oil.

I can't understand why (other than as long as oil remains "cheap" we have zero will power) we aren't busting our ass to end this. We are never going to be free of influence of other countries as long as we HAVE to have there oil.

If as the "dream solution" we created a source that drove the price of oil into the dirt - or sand as the case may be - there would be the problems that would cause in the middle east. Oil at $15.00 a barrel is going to piss a lot of people off........

Call me silly but I still believe that we can solve this problem and still tow our boats and jump out of airplanes. We just need leadership. Keep in mind that both parties have been in power and done nothing. Come on Gates!!!
Kevin Keenan is my hero, a double FUP, he does so much with so little

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Still not seeing how any of this would reduce the price of gas. Not saying it's a bad thing, just don't think the increase in CAFE will reduce fule prices.



Are you kidding? If we mandated 50 mpg average fuel economy for 2010 gas would be 25/bbl TOMORROW.

AND we would need no foreign oil.

--------------------------
Chuck Norris doesn't do push-ups, he pushes the Earth down.

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Still not seeing how any of this would reduce the price of gas. Not saying it's a bad thing, just don't think the increase in CAFE will reduce fule prices.



Are you kidding? If we mandated 50 mpg average fuel economy for 2010 gas would be 25/bbl TOMORROW.

AND we would need no foreign oil.



This is quite an assertion!
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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Still not seeing how any of this would reduce the price of gas. Not saying it's a bad thing, just don't think the increase in CAFE will reduce fule prices.



Are you kidding? If we mandated 50 mpg average fuel economy for 2010 gas would be 25/bbl TOMORROW.

AND we would need no foreign oil.


This is quite an assertion!


And a correct one, too.:ph34r:

--------------------------
Chuck Norris doesn't do push-ups, he pushes the Earth down.

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When we as a nation put our mind to something (Apollo, the Manhattan Project) we can accomplish a lot. We no longer have the will. It would take a threat far scarier than $5 a gallon gas to make us take the problem seriously.



What do you think about refocusing the Dept of Energy laboratories to focus on alternative energies across the spectrum? The common mantra that I’ve heard is that they’ve “lost their mission.” Let’s give ‘em a new one! Instead of fighting over who’s going to design the RRW or trying to be DHS or DoD labs.

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There will come a day (say, when we are at war with China) where the survival of our nation will depend on having those reserves available.



We also get a lot more that’s part of our 21st century society from petroleum than just oil and gas to burn up in combustion: solvents, inks, lubricants, paraffin wax, petroleum jelly (used in medical products) sometimes blended with paraffin wax in medical products, asphalt, petroleum coke (used for carbon and graphite products, such electrodes, anodes, and liners), chemical feedstock (used for plastics, pharmaceuticals, etc.)

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
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>What do you think about refocusing the Dept of Energy laboratories
>to focus on alternative energies across the spectrum?

That would be great; it would take a Manhattan project level effort, but is certainly doable. That project was supportable during the 1940's because of tremendous popular support for the war and a feeling that our national survival was at stake.

Nowadays it would not be seen as part of any war, and indeed well-funded industry groups would claim it was all a conspiracy of the global warming alarmists to make us poor etc etc. I can't see it getting the support it would need to make a significant dent (although it would be great if it did.)

>We also get a lot more that’s part of our 21st century society from petroleum . . .

Definitely, and that's one reason I think it's critical to start saving what we have for future generations. Not just for fuel - oil's other products are actually more important to us. Lots of things can be used as fuel, far fewer things can be used to replace hydrocarbons as industrial feedstock.

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>but I don't understand how this represents lower fuel prices...

Supply and demand.

Case 1: Same CAFE standards, same increase in car ownership, same miles driven, dwindling oil supply.

Case 2: Increased CAFE standards (i.e. reduced demand per vehicle) same increase in car ownership, dwindling oil supply.

Case 2 will result in cheaper gas prices than case 1. Indeed, any time you reduce consumption while keeping the same variables constant, price tends to decrease. Basic economics.

>If we use 20% less fuel, I would put my money on prices rising 20%+.

That's sort of the opposite of what basic economic theory says. Like if you eat 20% less, you'll become 20% heavier.



I would argue that even if we decrease our consumption by 20% price will go up and here is why.

We can decrease our consumption 50% yet we are rapidly becoming the second largest consumer of oil in the world. If we decrease our consumption yet others don't follow suit what would be the incentive to sell to us? If another large consuming nation will pay the higher price, who would be motivated sell to us?

Reducing our consumption is necessary for environmental reasons yet until we can convince others to follow suit we won't achieve lower prices.

Bill, you are correct on the micro (USA) level that decreasing demand should reduce cost, yet on the macro level (world) prices won't decrease.

__________________________________________________
"Beware how you take away hope from another human being."
-Oliver Wendell Holmes

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>What do you think about refocusing the Dept of Energy laboratories
>to focus on alternative energies across the spectrum?

That would be great; it would take a Manhattan project level effort, but is certainly doable. That project was supportable during the 1940's because of tremendous popular support for the war and a feeling that our national survival was at stake.

Nowadays it would not be seen as part of any war, and indeed well-funded industry groups would claim it was all a conspiracy of the global warming alarmists to make us poor etc etc.



If the $billions that are are been spent on GW hysteria was spent on finding a clean, sustainable energy source to replace fossil fuels, I for one would be a lot happier.

We need an alternative ernergy source to oil and one that does not require giving up our food to make it.
Dave

Fallschirmsport Marl

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>but I don't understand how this represents lower fuel prices...

Supply and demand.

Case 1: Same CAFE standards, same increase in car ownership, same miles driven, dwindling oil supply.

Case 2: Increased CAFE standards (i.e. reduced demand per vehicle) same increase in car ownership, dwindling oil supply.

Case 2 will result in cheaper gas prices than case 1. Indeed, any time you reduce consumption while keeping the same variables constant, price tends to decrease. Basic economics.

>If we use 20% less fuel, I would put my money on prices rising 20%+.

That's sort of the opposite of what basic economic theory says. Like if you eat 20% less, you'll become 20% heavier.



I would argue that even if we decrease our consumption by 20% price will go up and here is why.

We can decrease our consumption 50% yet we are rapidly becoming the second largest consumer of oil in the world. If we decrease our consumption yet others don't follow suit what would be the incentive to sell to us? If another large consuming nation will pay the higher price, who would be motivated sell to us?

Reducing our consumption is necessary for environmental reasons yet until we can convince others to follow suit we won't achieve lower prices.

Bill, you are correct on the micro (USA) level that decreasing demand should reduce cost, yet on the macro level (world) prices won't decrease.



Consider 2 scenarios:

1. The US cuts its consumption.
2. The US doesn't cut its consumption.

Which of these two leads to less demand overall for oil?
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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If the $billions that are are been spent on GW hysteria was spent on finding a clean, sustainable energy source to replace fossil fuels, I for one would be a lot happier.

We need an alternative energy source to oil and one that does not require giving up our food to make it.



stop being logical - you're going to get hate posts for that - but the hate posts will have a 'consensus' so that makes it ok

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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If the $billions that are are been spent on GW hysteria was spent on finding a clean, sustainable energy source to replace fossil fuels, I for one would be a lot happier.


stop being logical - you're going to get hate posts for that
***

Well this isn't hate mail but this problem goes a long ways before GW. Dem/Rep BOTH have screwed the country on this problem.

It's just easier to bitch about GW
Kevin Keenan is my hero, a double FUP, he does so much with so little

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>If the $billions that are are been spent on GW hysteria was spent on
>finding a clean, sustainable energy source to replace fossil fuels, I for one
>would be a lot happier.

It is happening. Much of the money spent on climate change mitigation is going towards cleaner fuels/energy sources.

>We need an alternative ernergy source to oil and one that does not
>require giving up our food to make it.

As the US is currently the fattest nation in the world, I see no signs of having to "give up our food!"

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