Have fun flying this Thankgiving

[Rookie120 0]

I have seen so many news clips about how this weekend is going to suck to fly. Then Bush came on with his jerk-off so called fix. Unless he can miracle some new runways in the northeast by wednesday his little trick wont do dick. Mike Boyd had another great article this week on the entire situation. It's a little long but a great read.

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Monday, November 19, 2007

Okay. Enough of The Media Hysteria
Now For Some Reality About
The Thanksgiving "Travel Crunch"
The Good News: It Should Be Pretty Much Like Any Other Wednesday
The Bad News: It Should Be Pretty Much Like Any Other Wednesday

The media stories have the amateur tinge and crocodile-terror of those reporters in the 1950's Godzilla movies, breathlessly shouting into microphones in badly translated English about how the dumb lizard was munching his way through Tokyo, tossing around busses full of people, overturning trains, and generally making a mess of things, with the authorities powerless to stop him.

We're referring to the reporting on the terrors that the flying public will be facing this Thanksgiving week-end. It has the same silly tinge of hysteria and panic of the klutzy translation of that 50s movie classic, with perfunctory reporter-on-location airport stories, replete with B-roll showing long lines of people, and the voice-over urgently stuttering out the dire warnings:

"27 million passengers will be flying this holiday!"

"That's FOUR PERCENT more than last year!

"Flights will be jam-packed!"

"Airports will be crammed with travelers"

"Flight delays could be horrendous!"

Sorry to reveal the exciting ending to this supposed air travel horror flick, but here's a flash for the reporters who are wandering out at airports and sitting in studios interviewing amateur lightweight consumer gadflies who don't know diddly about airline operations:

Essentially, every one of those statements describes a normal week in the air travel scene of 2008.

Yup. A normal week. So the good news is that Thanksgiving week should be pretty much like any other week, give or take. The bad news is also that Thanksgiving week will be like any other week. It will be no less and no more vulnerable to system delays, cancellations, and snafus. And aside from different passenger demographics, there will only be marginally more people flying - because flights have been full for months, and there's not much capacity - if any - being added.

That's a point that many media stories have ignored entirely, preferring to repeat stuff like, "airlines will be rolling out more airplanes to meet the demand" - as if United and American have got hangars and hardstands full of idle, $35-million 737s just for the purpose of accommodating all those un-booked go-show passengers that'll be streaming into airport terminals across the nation this weekend.

Inadvertently Declaring A Godzilla Attack. It seems that the Air Transport Association has started a media stampede, by letting holiday traffic projections go unaccompanied by any discussion that would put them in context. This combines with an embarrassing lack of airline industry knowledge, or basic research on the part of some reporters, and suddenly, we've got stories predicting that the Godzilla Delay Monster will be chewing his way through LaGuardia, O'Hare, and LAX in the guise of a suddenly-choked airline system, trapping and panicking hapless millions.

Now, For Some Reality. So, at the risk of being a wet blanket, let's examine these statements that the media is turning into the equivalent of a report on a major terror attack on the American public.

"27 million passengers will be flying this holiday!"
"That's FOUR PERCENT more than last year!"

Here's a flash for the media: air traffic across the nation is now tracking every day at just about 3.5% to 4.0% above last year. So, there is no really big "spike" in total passenger numbers compared to what's been the year-over-year case.

"Flights will be jam-packed!"

Hello, media. Here's another flash that takes some of the breathless panic out of the story. Fights have been "jam-packed" - i.e., full - for the last couple of years. The industry is tracking at over 80% load factors, which means that at the times people want to fly, the seats are full. Full is full, whether it's a holiday week-end or not. Or, in media-parlance, "jam-packed."

Another tidbit of information for the media. Airplanes are not like the Tokyo trolley cars that Godzilla liked to munch on. Loads are based on the number of seats, and when they've all got a tush in them, that's it. There isn't anybody trying to squeeze more people on. Now, let's again note that flights have been full for months (years) and to make a statement that "flights will be jam-packed" as if airlines will be shoving strap-hangers through the rear commissary door is just plain stupid - and sloppy reporting.

Then comes the unstated and unsubstantiated assumption that there will be flight delays because of this "jam-packed" situation. Every year, it seems that some network stages a correspondent at the FAA facility in Virginia, vigilant to be the first to report back about flight delays due to holiday volume. Somehow, they assume that since there'll be more vehicles on I-95 over the holiday, that'll be the same situation in the air. Wrong.

Wet blanket time: There aren't any more airplanes in the sky the Wednesday before Thanksgiving than any other Wednesday. A couple of extra sections, maybe. But the volume of iron flying around is essentially the same. So, where's the assumption coming from that the skies will also be "jam-packed"? Simple. It's from lack of understanding of the subject matter. And lack of diligent research, beyond reading press releases.

Enter W Into The Circus. It's Scary.

Then last week, flanked by his Secretary of Transportation and FAA Administrator, President Bush suddenly appeared on TV screens across the nation, making deeply-profound statements about the crisis, like informing the public that there's been a lot of flight delays this year, and his tight team was going to fix it for the holidays.

Anybody watching could tell that he was just reading a script - he had no fire or deep involvement with the subject matter. Or any real understanding of it, either.

Nevertheless, some of the media responded to the President's comments as if the cavalry had just arrived to save Fort Apache from land developers. Comments like,

"The President has implemented sweeping changes to counter the enormous delays that will be seen due to the huge volumes of people traveling!"

To anybody familiar with the causes of airline delays, this press conference was embarrassing for our nation. Not since Leslie Neilson's portrayal of the president in Scary Movie 3 have we witnessed such White House stumbling and bumbling.

Harsh comment, maybe. It is true that the President is busy, and certainly cannot be expected to be an expert on all matters. But it is incumbent on the incumbent to at least be briefed factually and be able to address the issue intelligently. In that, Bush failed. Leslie Neilson beware: Bush is auditioning for your part in the next Scary Movie sequel.

What Bush delivered was a pathetic, poorly-planned photo op. Pabulum for the masses, and, when looking at the measures he proposed, Nancy Pelosi couldn't have done better job in making W look like a buffoon by feeding him really bad information. Point by point:

Opening Up Military Air Space. Now, in light of the fact that Thanksgiving will have essentially no more airplanes in the sky, if military air space restrictions are a major cause of delays (which, by the way they aren't) why didn't W do this months ago? Not that it makes a bit of difference, as the net increase in airspace utilized isn't going to have an effect on the nation as a whole. And, remember, the flights will still be under the control of an outdated and understaffed ATC system - the one about which Bush hasn't a clue.

Increasing Penalty For Involuntary Bumping To $800. What? Hint to the people slipping cribsheets and talking points to the President: Oversales are not a material cause of delays. Remember, passengers are processed before going through security and before they get to the departure gate. Those with seat assignments are boarded, and the flight departs. Those left "bumped" (a term used mostly by the media, by the way, and not much by the airline industry) then get handled.

But the average person on the street thinks this is a great deal. So does W and the inept handlers who made this a part of his "sweeping" suggestions. One leeeetle issue that nobody told the President, is that are almost no "involuntary" oversold passengers left. It isn't some big customer service problem. And it isn't one that causes delays.

Here's a fact - and facts seem to be very short in some of the media reporting. Passengers categorized as being oversold involuntarily - those who would be affected by the President's bold move - represent approximately one one-hundredth of one percent of all enplaned passengers. That's right, according to DOT data (and that's the guv'ment stuff the President's handlers had access to) passengers bumped involuntary are less than one one-hundredth of one percent of enplanements. State lottery odds are better.

Yet the President made it a part of his aggressive and sweeping suggestions to clear the skies of delays. We can only hope he's getting more professional advice on how to deal with the war in Iraq.

Deferring Non-Critical Maintenance On FAA Equipment. So, that's going to reduce the workload on air traffic controllers? And what are the technicians going to do? Go out and park airplanes? Direct traffic in front of the Dulles terminal? Deliver coffee and send out for pizza for the controllers? But this is the kind of nonsense we deserve when there are no qualifications necessary to be Secretary of Transportation, or FAA Administrator, other than having political connections.

The nation needs leadership. That means putting fire under the FAA to completely re-design the ATC system. Or, to just fire the FAA leadership. Leadership demands more than dumb, off-the-cuff calls for "FAA Re-Authorization" that are dishonestly postured as the "solution" to fixing delay. Leadership means having Secretaries of Transportation and FAA Administrators that work for results and work for the people, not just political mannequins who are in the job just because of who they know.

Leadership demands much more than the pabulum that Bush read - read off a cheat-sheet - at his big news conference. Face it: like him or dislike him, Bush pandered. He didn't provide leadership.

Different Demographics Will Affect Airport Processing. But Not On-Time Performance. So, there is no reason that this holiday will be any better or worse than last week. A snowstorm or a line or two of bad weather, and our FAA's inept ATC system will screw up the system in a flash. Just like always.

But there is the issue of different demographics. More families with screaming kids. More parents using child-occupied strollers like battering rams to get to the front of the boarding line. More amateur travelers not aware that an economy-size bottle of Old Spice is considered a risk to national security by the TSA. More checked luggage. It is accurate that the mix of passengers is not the same, but the net number of them will not be some huge spike.

Flights were full last Wednesday. They will be full this Wednesday, and with no significant increase in capacity, that means net volumes won't be the equivalent of the human Tsunami being predicted for O'Hare on the 6PM news. At least not any more than usual.

So, we can re-cap: The Chicken Littles are correct. This holiday week could be really bad for air travel.

Just like every other week of the year.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[juanesky 0]

The Wonders of the media. *sigh*

"According to some of the conservatives here, it sounds like it's fine to beat your wide - as long as she had it coming." -Billvon

[Rookie120 0]

You have to sit back and laugh sometimes. But for most of the general public who dont fly all the time they just lap this crap up. The guy who wrote the article has a new one posted every week. It's usually really good and pretty much spot on.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[kelpdiver 2]

but it's not really a normal week. No one wants to volunteer to be bumped. And far more infrequent travelers show up.

I flew to Cancun (Via LA and Houston) in April on Easter weekend and it was a mad house thanks to minor rain. My flight was an hour late, thankfully leaving me 5 minutes to walk to my next flight. People in San Francisco were desparately running around trying to make any flight to LA.

[kallend 2,150]

But, but... the ATA keeps telling us that all the little airplanes are the cause of the delays.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Rookie120 0]

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But, but... the ATA keeps telling us that all the little airplanes are the cause of the delays.

Flying outside of Peru IL probably not. Here in the NE they tell me when I went on my tour there are a lot of dinks buzzing around. Come out here and I will take you into the tower at EWR. When I looked at the scope there were a lot of spots that were not commercial.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[billvon 3,120]

While I agree with the gist of the article, there WILL be more planes in the air this weekend overall, and congestion at the airports will be considerably worse. Many airlines (including American and Alaska) will be using additional aircraft to meet demand. These aircraft normally sit around at airline hubs waiting for mechanical problems to ground other aircraft. So that means:

1) there will be a few more airplanes in the air, including at some airports that even on the best days can barely get everyone off the ground/on the ground in a timely manner

2) if an aircraft DOES have problems on the ground, there will likely be no replacement available, leading to more delays.

So while it's not going to be the apocalypse the media portrays it as, it also won't be "business as usual" as the author implies.

[Rookie120 0]

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These aircraft normally sit around at airline hubs waiting for mechanical problems to ground other aircraft.

Say what? Did you read the article? You think we have planes sitting idle in hangars and remote parking just waiting to be put into service? Oh my friend you are so wrong. Almost all our stuff is being use except the ones down for C-check of heavy MX. Or is pulled out of service for other things. What happens a lot of time is the plane would be swapped out with another plane that had an extended ground time. Lets say a 757 goes down at 10am. They have one sitting that is scheduled to depart at 2100. They will swap the 2 hoping to get the broke one fixed by 2100. They dont have 757, 777, 767 just sitting by waiting for something to break as you say. Sometimes if we get a plane out of check from the hangar ahead of schedule and it is not supposed to depart until the next day they will use that to fill in if needed. But we dont have 20 spares just sitting.

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While I agree with the gist of the article, there WILL be more planes in the air this weekend overall, and congestion at the airports will be considerably worse.

It wont be any worse than what happened last summer. Everything flying with not very much room for error.

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2) if an aircraft DOES have problems on the ground, there will likely be no replacement available, leading to more delays.

Or cancellations. Some things or just unavoidable. Weather and MX issues are not controlled. A Lufthansa 747 tearing a winglet off one of our 757's is something that we did not anticipate. We just had to deal with it. I just left EWR today and except the low clouds and so far moderate delays things seem to be running pretty smooth. Pretty much a normal day at EWR.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[billvon 3,120]

>You think we have planes sitting idle in hangars and remote parking just
>waiting to be put into service?

American Airlines does; we used one of their "spare" Super 80's (based in Tulsa) for a demo a while back, and ended up chasing it all over the country as it was needed. Alaska does; they generally have a 'spare' 737 in Anchorage just in case.

>But we dont have 20 spares just sitting.

Right. We're talking, at most, a few more aircraft at each airport. At most airports that will be no problem. But at the busiest airports during peak times there is going to be more traffic to get off the ground.

[okalb 104]

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moderate delays things seem to be running pretty smooth. Pretty much a normal day at EWR.

You have got to be kidding me! I fly in and out of EWR almost every week and those are words I would NEVER use to describe how thing run there. There is a reason why it was voted worst airport in the country this year. Most of my flights have an average ontime rate below 40%. If that is what you consider running pretty smooth then we have very different ideas about what smooth means.

Time flies like an arrow....fruit flies like a banana

[Rookie120 0]

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Most of my flights have an average ontime rate below 40%.

WHat airline are you flying that has 40%?

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If that is what you consider running pretty smooth then we have very different ideas about what smooth means.

There are a lot of companies that fly there. Our operations were looking pretty good when I left today. Some moderate delays due to low ceiling and rain but nothing to bad. Good luck everyone flying this weekend. Wish I had vacation time to fly home. I will be flying over Christmas. Sure it will be just as busy then also.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[okalb 104]

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WHat airline are you flying that has 40%?

I always fly continental. The routes in the evenings from EWR to TPA are a disaster. I will say that for the last 2 months or so things have gotten much better and that is represented in the numbers. They have gone from about 40% ontime to the 60% range according to the stats. While that is a HUGE improvement, when you start that low, there is only one direction to go. I have definitely seen an improvement over the last few months though. I actually had a flight arrive early last week.

Time flies like an arrow....fruit flies like a banana

[Rookie120 0]

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I always fly continental.

Thank you. Keeps me employed.

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The routes in the evenings from EWR to TPA are a disaster.

Between 7-10pm is really busy. Not just us trying to leave. I have not looked up that exact flight but system wide this month so far we are at 84% ontime. Not bad considering the weather and stuff. Hope your future flights are a little more on schedule.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[nerdgirl 0]

Single data point:

I flew ATL to COS (Colorado Springs) on Wednesday. Frankly kudos to TSA & ATL staff. I was through screening and security (main concourse) faster than I think I ever have been (
Hope it will be as smooth on the way back!
/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying