They didn't even know where these nukes were, yet, we were in no danger?!?

[peckerhead 0]

It wouldn't be the first time a nuke flew over our country. Where do you think they come from? And spend most of their time?

[billvon 3,118]

>You know as well as I that an unarmed nuke is impossible to set off.

That has been shown not to be true. They accidentally dropped two unarmed nuclear weapons on January 24, 1961, over Goldsboro, North Carolina. One one weapon, the recovery system worked correctly; it deployed a parachute and landed safely. The other weapon struck the ground without benefit of deceleration, broke into pieces and scattered plutonium over a wide area.

Afterwards, two physicists examining the destroyed device said that it had come very close to detonating. Five of the six safety devices had failed, and "a single switch" had prevented a detonation.

In that case, although we were fortunate it did not detonate, radiation was spread over a fairly wide area. The core was never recovered, and is still out there in the North Carolina countryside.

(BTW side note - this incident was one of the inspirations for the permissive action link (PAL) which adds another layer of protection against nuclear devices detonating accidentally.)

In most nuclear weapons, it is fairly easy for the weapon to go critical. In a polonium-triggered plutonium implosion weapon, accidental detonation of a few implosion charges can force the core to go critical, although since it will not compress uniformly the yield will be minuscule (i.e. nothing like kilotons.) In a gun-type weapon, all it takes is a sufficient impact to dislodge either the pit or the bullet - and if they then get near each other, you get criticality.

Again, in both cases the yield is tiny in comparison to the actual yield of the device; a true nuclear detonation is quite difficult to initiate by accident. But even very low yields would do a good job of spreading radioactive material around.

Note that had they been transported without their cores (which is common) there would have been almost zero risk of contamination as the result of an accident.

Also note that some designs are more resistant to detonation than others; implosion weapons with a separate neutron source are harder to set off by accident since they require synchronization of the neutron emitter and implosion.

>But it was a HUGE fuck-up!!!

Yep. Hopefully we fix the problems that led to this.

[willard 0]

Right you are. I should have been more specific and stated that it is nearly impossible.

[quade 4]

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It wouldn't be the first time a nuke flew over our country. Where do you think they come from? And spend most of their time?

You've missed the point entirely.

For several hours, enough material to set off 5 rather large nuclear explosions was completely unaccounted for. They had no idea where the material was and in fact, they didn't even know it was missing. The story isn't that the material was on the plane, the story is that it WASN'T in Minot!

That's huge.

Let's suppose this had not been an accident but intentional. To wipe Minot off the face of the earth would have been trivial; gather all the material together in one spot and wait a nano-second.

Minot isn't really all that great a target though and it certainly could be put off as an accidental detonation; not very impressive and as a terrorist tool, therefore not too desirable, but certianly usable as a back up plan in case my next scenario goes awry.

Which is . . .

Take the material and drive it across the Canadian border.

Since, at any time the plot could be discovered, the back up remains available. Trouble getting off the base? Boom. Trouble crossing the border? Boom.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[grue 1]

Why does it not leaving the US mean it's not a risk? Maybe I'm not seeing something here, but I think the idea of it being in a warehouse, set up, and used in the US is a bit more disturbing that it being taken to some other country and needing to be smuggled back in.

cavete terrae.

[mnealtx 0]

These things were either on a rotary launcher in the bomb bay or pylons on the wing of a B-52, not laying in the trash dump, fer cryin out loud... a bit of hyperbole going on here...

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[kallend 2,148]

Quote

These things were either on a rotary launcher in the bomb bay or pylons on the wing of a B-52, not laying in the trash dump, fer cryin out loud... a bit of hyperbole going on here...

So errors in handling nukes are acceptable to you, then. OK.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[mnealtx 0]

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Quote

These things were either on a rotary launcher in the bomb bay or pylons on the wing of a B-52, not laying in the trash dump, fer cryin out loud... a bit of hyperbole going on here...

So errors in handling nukes are acceptable to you, then. OK.

Don't put words in my mouth. You can see in my posts at the start of the thread that I'm NOT ok with it. I'm only making the point that the weapons weren't exactly 'laying around' like several of you are making it sound.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[billvon 3,118]

>Maybe I'm not seeing something here, but I think the idea of it being in a
>warehouse, set up, and used in the US is a bit more disturbing that it
>being taken to some other country and needing to be smuggled back in.

Indeed. What's even more worrisome is that nuclear weapon cores HAVE gone missing (even right here in the US) and have still not been accounted for. Hopefully they are just plain lost and _not_ sitting in that warehouse somewhere.

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

These things were either on a rotary launcher in the bomb bay or pylons on the wing of a B-52, not laying in the trash dump, fer cryin out loud... a bit of hyperbole going on here...

Just a little. Compared to the real fuckups we've had in handling nukes over the decades, sounds like a quiet news day. Hell, it came off a military newspaper.

[ryoder 1,590]

What has me curious: Don't the weapons controls systems have the ability to identify exactly what kind of weapon is installed on the a/c report that to the weapons officer?

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[1969912 0]

Quote

>Maybe I'm not seeing something here, but I think the idea of it being in a
>warehouse, set up, and used in the US is a bit more disturbing that it
>being taken to some other country and needing to be smuggled back in.

Indeed. What's even more worrisome is that nuclear weapon cores HAVE gone missing (even right here in the US) and have still not been accounted for. Hopefully they are just plain lost and _not_ sitting in that warehouse somewhere.

Probably true, but I'd like to read about it. Any references?

"Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ."
-NickDG

[quade 4]

Quote

What has me curious: Don't the weapons controls systems have the ability to identify exactly what kind of weapon is installed on the a/c report that to the weapons officer?

I do know the weapons officer gets to tell the warhead what yield he would like (which is pretty cool), but I'm not certain of the "grainularity" of the information that gets passed back up. It may report type, but not type + core installed - detonator installed, ect. I would assume it does, but then again, I can't imagine the weapons officer caring to look when he thinks he's simply transporting stuff destined to be destroyed. That's what the whole flight was about; these weapons were being transported to be decommissioned.

More about the actual missle and the warhead.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[willard 0]

Seems our country has a hard time keeping track of this stuff. Bill Clinton would lose the top secret nuclear weapon launch codes on occasion. Not quite as scary as missing nukes, but darn close.

[mnealtx 0]

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Seems our country has a hard time keeping track of this stuff. Bill Clinton would lose the top secret nuclear weapon launch codes on occasion. Not quite as scary as missing nukes, but darn close.

Seems rather difficult to do, since the President *doesn't* carry them around.... unless you mean leaving behind the poor bastard carrying the 'football'?

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[freethefly 6]

Quote

Bill Clinton would lose the top secret nuclear weapon launch codes on occasion

Cite, please.
I have no proof but I've heard Bush keeps losing his Top Secret Spy Decoder Ring.

"...And once you're gone, you can't come back
When you're out of the blue and into the black."
Neil Young

[willard 0]

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Quote

Bill Clinton would lose the top secret nuclear weapon launch codes on occasion

Cite, please.
I have no proof but I've heard Bush keeps losing his Top Secret Spy Decoder Ring.

"Dereliction of Duty" by Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Robert "Buzz" Patterson.

[quade 4]

Quote

"Dereliction of Duty" by Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Robert "Buzz" Patterson.

And who is he? Hmmm, wasn't he the guy that should have had it?

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[willard 0]

Quote

Quote

"Dereliction of Duty" by Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Robert "Buzz" Patterson.

And who is he? Hmmm, wasn't he the guy that should have had it?

I could tell you to just read the book but I won't.
The President’s authorization codes are on a small card he carries with him. The detailed attack messages—the SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan) are in the “football”. It was the card with his authorization codes that Clinton hard trouble hanging onto.

[nerdgirl 0]

Update: For anyone else who's wonkish on bugs, gas, and pointy things with fins - turns out the warheads were W80s (... that lack FRPs/flame resistant pits). So no, still wouldn't get nuclear detonation or widespread Pu distribution, but the Air Force has agreed that the W80s are enough of a risk that they are not supposed to fly in routine operations.

Sid Drell's (Stanford Hoover Institute; he started the JASONs) Congressional testimony from 1992 talks about FRPs starting page 4. http://www.plrc.org/docs/Drell_Testimony_1992.pdf
(Smiled at reference to ATSD(AE) - doesn't exist anymore; it's ATSD(NCB))

Pics:http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/W80.html

VR/
Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Coreece 190]

Update:

Apparently some people doubt this was an isolated incident. Let's hope the new guys know what they're doing...

70 punished in accidental B-52 flight

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/N/NUCLEAR_MISTAKE?SITE=NCKIN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

EDIT

Here's another link to the story if you're having trouble with the other.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071019/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/nuclear_mistake

Your secrets are the true reflection of who you really are...

[Gawain 0]

Quote

Update:

Apparently some people doubt this was an isolated incident. Let's hope the new guys know what they're doing...

70 punished in accidental B-52 flight

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/N/NUCLEAR_MISTAKE?SITE=NCKIN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

EDIT

Here's another link to the story if you're having trouble with the other.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071019/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/nuclear_mistake

I was reading this too. The crews up there were apparently not following the "established" series of checks that must be performed in the tracking and movement of the warheads and the vehicles themselves. These jokers created their own "version" of the procedures.

Now, we have an entire bomber wing taken off status and decertified from its combat mission.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[kschilk 0]

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>This is one huge FUBAR but really now. The system worked . . .

Well, no. The system failed; a live warhead was flown over populated areas of the US. The failure did not cause any problems (fortunately.) Hopefully, the next thing to happen is that the failure will be analyzed so it doesn't happen again.

No Bill, system one failed, the back up, system did not. That is what I refer to

No, actually....the media failed. There's no such thing as a "live" nuke. They can be "armed" but anymore, that happens after deployment. Even in a crash, they won't go off but unfortunately, truth doesn't sell newspapers or ad time.

"T'was ever thus."

[mnealtx 0]

Quote

Now, we have an entire bomber wing taken off status and decertified from its combat mission.

And rightly so, after this type of incident (at least IMO).

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[nerdgirl 0]

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Quote

No Bill, system one failed, the back up, system did not. That is what I refer to

No, actually....the media failed. There's no such thing as a "live" nuke. They can be "armed" but anymore, that happens after deployment. Even in a crash, they won't go off but unfortunately, truth doesn't sell newspapers or ad time.

Agree - that the commercial media perhaps did not portray with technical accuracy the sophistication of US nuclear weapons systems. The use of a single word was not technically precise.

Does that excuse or how is that relevant to the failure to follow SOPs?

Should we ever lose accountability of our nuclear weapons?

I wrote earlier of the importance of transparency: http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=2940747;#2940747

---

Coreece -

Thanks for the update to the thread. Back in Sept (referenced post above) one of my purely speculative concerns was that this not as isolated incident, i.e., were the officers who leaked the story concerned regarding a re-occuring pattern? Which should not in any way be taken to assert/infer/whatever that such an incident occured previously - I don't have any evidence to suggest so -- but other concern regarding changes in attention to SOPs.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying