Stock Market - Summer 2007

[NCclimber 0]

What are your thoughts on the recent selloff of the major stock indices?

[idrankwhat 0]

Probably just a short dip. But it's hard to say exactly how the mortgage lending problems are going to eventually pan out. I actually made money yesterday so I'll be jumping out of planes instead of windows.

edited to add while watching the market near today's close:
Ok, maybe not that many times

[kelpdiver 2]

Virtually all of my money is long term (retirement), so I don't really think about it at all. Since I'm putting money in every 2 weeks, dips work fine for me.

for short term it's puzzling, and I'm fleeing towards high dividend payers. The retail customers are stampeding all over the place and bond prices are now back to where they were at the beginning of summer.

[skydvr808 0]

I think its Short-term and am adding long positions in (certain) equities.

[kallend 2,114]

To mix some metaphors, a mountain of debt is not a firm foundation on which to build a sound economy.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Misternatural 0]

Currently, I am very bearish about this market, I think it has not yet fully corrected for the housing/mortgage slump and higher fuel prices.
Look at the all bank stocks, they are down as a result of over zealous risky lending to folks who got caught in the real estate drain.
I say sell and hold for a few more months, if you look at the charts over the past 5 years this is the beginning of the summer slump anyway- it's late this year , Dec - Feb should be time to buy again.

5% online bank accounts are a good place to put your cash for now so it is on hand when things turn around during the holidays.

*investment advice not insured, may loose value.

Beware of the collateralizing and monetization of your desires.
D S #3.1415

[NCclimber 0]

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To mix some metaphors, a mountain of debt is not a firm foundation on which to build a sound economy.

It's always nice to read how you directly address a given topic and succintly state your position.

[pirana 0]

Very temporary; part of the cycles we have endured and will continue to endure. Look at the market over the long term. Even 9/11 didn't keep it down for long, nor did it tank anywhere nearly as bad as many of the doomsayers predicted (including some of the so-called experts). There were some who were calling for a bottom of 6000. The fools vastly underestimated profit motive.

Thru 9/11, Katrina, Iraq, and whatever else comes at us; the markets force competition and the channeling of funds (long term) where they will do the most. We are seeing a correction for funds being chanelled uncompetitively into underproductive activities. Free markets fix themselves - you just gotta be in for more than the weekend.

Something like the Great Depression is still a possibility, but it would take a catastrophe of biblical proportions - much more than terrorists taking out a couple skyscrapers and a few thousand people. It would have to be an event effecting multiple industries to the point of bringing them to their knees. A relatively small chunk of the population finding creative ways to finance OSB and vinyl-sided McMansions on ridiculously thin margins that don't even allow them to weather a modest economic storm is hardly a biblical catastrophe.

We may however see a glut of Junior Executives moving into double-wides and taking jobs at Home Crepo.

" . . . the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging them and kicking them into obedience." -- Aldous Huxley

[NCclimber 0]

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What are your thoughts on the recent selloff of the major stock indices?

How about now?

[idrankwhat 0]

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What are your thoughts on the recent selloff of the major stock indices?

How about now?

I'll stick by what I said earlier. Except for the "I actually made money yesterday" part.

[Zipp0 1]

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What are your thoughts on the recent selloff of the major stock indices?

How about now?

I know I'm glad I moved the majority of my money to bonds a few weeks ago.

As far as the big picture goes, we are seeing some of the warning signs the preceded the great depression. I don't think it will necessarily head that low, but many investors have forgot that the markets do involve risk. If anyone starts to believe that their bank may not have the cash to pay their balance, things will get real ugly, real fast.

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Chuck Norris doesn't do push-ups, he pushes the Earth down.

[kallend 2,114]

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What are your thoughts on the recent selloff of the major stock indices?

How about now?

www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=2900411#2900411

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Jib 0]

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Very temporary; part of the cycles we have endured and will continue to endure. Look at the market over the long term. Even 9/11 didn't keep it down for long, nor did it tank anywhere nearly as bad as many of the doomsayers predicted (including some of the so-called experts). There were some who were calling for a bottom of 6000. The fools vastly underestimated profit motive.

Thru 9/11, Katrina, Iraq, and whatever else comes at us; the markets force competition and the channeling of funds (long term) where they will do the most. We are seeing a correction for funds being chanelled uncompetitively into underproductive activities. Free markets fix themselves - you just gotta be in for more than the weekend.

Something like the Great Depression is still a possibility, but it would take a catastrophe of biblical proportions - much more than terrorists taking out a couple skyscrapers and a few thousand people. It would have to be an event effecting multiple industries to the point of bringing them to their knees. A relatively small chunk of the population finding creative ways to finance OSB and vinyl-sided McMansions on ridiculously thin margins that don't even allow them to weather a modest economic storm is hardly a biblical catastrophe.

We may however see a glut of Junior Executives moving into double-wides and taking jobs at Home Crepo.

I think Greenspan only patched the dot.com bust with lower interest rates. The dollar is in the shitter against the Euro. If we used euros instead of dollars, the market would have a 1/3 lower value in the past six years. Instead, we had low interest rates and risky (100%) home loans (underwritten based upon those low rates and not historical ones) fueling the economy (combined with strong exports because of euro buying power). Now, we have higher fuel costs and a scared market. It's not just the subprime borrowers who are screwed. When the fed lowers rates 1/4 and then 1/2 point in an effort to loosen up capital, we'll see the dollar continue to slide and gas continue to climb, people will be forced to spend less and the economy will slow down. Finally, when the French yell loudly enough about euro policy (which they've been doing), we may see some turn around for the dollar and the economy.

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the depth of his depravity sickens me.
-- Jerry Falwell, People v. Larry Flynt

[pirana 0]

Yeah, you gotta throw the French a bone once in a while; kind of like a pity-fuck. Then they'll bask in that glow for a bit, lying about drinking fabulous whine and smoking shitty cigarettes and ignoring everyone else so we can get back to fixing things up - yet again.

" . . . the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging them and kicking them into obedience." -- Aldous Huxley

[kelpdiver 2]

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How about now?

I know I'm glad I moved the majority of my money to bonds a few weeks ago.

Bad bonds are the crux of the problem right now.

And market timing is always a game of luck. And we have a silly market right now. (If the issue is US debt, why are foreign indexes also plunging?) Historically retail customers have an especially bad record of selling low, buying high.

[idrankwhat 0]

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(If the issue is US debt, why are foreign indexes also plunging?)

Many were investing in our booming housing market.

[Remster 30]

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(If the issue is US debt, why are foreign indexes also plunging?)

Many were investing in our booming housing market.

The US housing market is nothging but a bip on the global scale right now.

For the first time ever, a US reserve adjustment was made in response to what China and then Europe did with theirs a couple weeks ago. Tradtionally, its been the US Fed reserve who has initiated release of funds, with Europe following up to trim the adjustments. This time, China initiated it, with the Eu and the the US following the lead.

Its a different world guys. Do you know why China made such a large adjustment last month: inflition in China was 5% last month. That a Monthly figure, not yearly.

Remster

[Zipp0 1]

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And market timing is always a game of luck. And we have a silly market right now. (If the issue is US debt, why are foreign indexes also plunging?) Historically retail customers have an especially bad record of selling low, buying high.

I hear that all the time. And yet, I've avoided losing a boatload of money recently. I made about 23% over the last year, so moving it to safety when it seems obvious that a correction is coming is a no-brainer.

I mean, did anyone with any sense NOT see this coming? The hard part will be knowing whan to jump back in. At this point, I'm out for at least a few more days.

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Chuck Norris doesn't do push-ups, he pushes the Earth down.

[kelpdiver 2]

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And market timing is always a game of luck. And we have a silly market right now. (If the issue is US debt, why are foreign indexes also plunging?) Historically retail customers have an especially bad record of selling low, buying high.

I hear that all the time. And yet, I've avoided losing a boatload of money recently.

As determined by hindsight. A lot of people sold out after the February disturbance and watched the markets storm on until this month. Nevermind all the people who bought in during 2000 and left at the trough in 2002.

And if you wait too long to return, will you lose that savings? Or if you picked a high growth bond fund that founders...

[Gawain 0]

Well, I won't say that it's going to be a cake-walk, but nor do I believe that the sky is falling either.

I do think the Fed has waited too long to adjust rates down. It's akin to pushing on the gas pedal when going up a hill to maintain speed.

The most recent dips or corrections or whatever have all resulted in us learning from it. The sub-prime risk was calculated, but perhaps over-extended.

No one is jumping from their offices in the skyscrapers over this. The financial institutions have an opportunity to redraw their plans and make a solid, less sexy, slower recovery. As a whole, things will come out stronger, and with the coverage this is getting, the average consumer will know a whole lot more (whether a first time home buyer or not).

The markets will end the year in the green (they still are).

edit to add: the daily news is not the way to gauge an investment strategy. The blue light specials are on.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[kelpdiver 2]

Yow - the end of the day was something. I had looked at 11 or so (Pacific) and was down another 1200 on the day, and was debating bargain hunting now versus tomorrow or next week, and then the buyers flooded in. JPM up 5.74% on the day. BAC up 3.3%. Lots of big company/indexes up a lot.

We'll see tomorrow if that's sustained, of course.

[Casurf1978 0]

Like another posted stated it would take a catastrophic event for our economy to enter a great depression. What happened to the markets the last week or two is simply a correction. The whole Country Wide debacle spooked a lot of investors.

Our economy survived the junk bonds of the 1980's, the dot com of the 1990's, 9/11, now its the sub-prime mortgage loans. God only knows what the major financial event of the 2010's will be.

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If anyone starts to believe that their bank may not have the cash to pay their balance, things will get real ugly, real fast.

I'm not worried nor should anyone with less than 100K in the bank. All bank accounts are protected under the FDIC. Even some IRA and Keoghs accounts are insured up to 250K.

[wmw999 2,556]

Most of these run-ups have followed times when people were giddy with profits that didn't follow a real product; stuff. Real estate flipping is only marginally productive (in that it requires ever-richer people). Many of the dot-coms pretty clearly had no real product. Likewise the junk bonds, and the recent sub-prime mortgages, as well as all the Enron wheeling and dealing.

Real assets are kind of nice. Not as glamorous, but, well, they're real.

Wendy W.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[Zipp0 1]

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I'm not worried nor should anyone with less than 100K in the bank. All bank accounts are protected under the FDIC. Even some IRA and Keoghs accounts are insured up to 250K.

I was told that the FDIC has 100 YEARS to pay you back in the event of a crash. So, you are dead and never collect. What is the value in that?

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Chuck Norris doesn't do push-ups, he pushes the Earth down.

[Casurf1978 0]

I've never heard that before. Check the FDIC's website I didnt find anything stating that they had 100 year window to pay you off. Usually what happens if your bank becomes insolvent is that either the FDIC will pay off all deposits or an open bank will purchase all the assets of the failed entity and assume your deposit.