Guest #1 June 16, 2007 Some noteworthy pieces today from the Strategy Page. They point out how the weaknesses of the islamo-fascists can be used against them, and make for interesting reading - mh ------------------ Al-Qaida Fails Sexual Politics by Austin Bay June 13, 2007 The U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College in Quantico, Va., now has a cultural anthropologist on its faculty. Welcome to 21st century warfare, where knowing your enemy includes knowing his myths and marriage mores, as well as his political goals and military capabilities. Given al-Qaida's recent defeats in western Iraq's Al Anbar province, and the underlying reasons for armed conflict with its former allies in the region, the terror cartel ought to hire a cultural anthropologist and perhaps a sex therapist. Let's hope they don't recruit either. The "Anbar Awakening," as the split between the Anbar's Sunni tribes and al-Qaida is called, may prove to be a case study in aligning political and cultural considerations with combat security operations. It is certainly an object lesson in al-Qaida's cultural and religious imperialism, as well as outright social clumsiness -- in other words, an example of how al-Qaida does make critical mistakes and how we capitalize on its errors. The Chicago Tribune reported in May that a blood feud led to the split. The Tribune identified the key leader as a young sheik "bent on avenging the murder of his father" by al-Qaida. The sheik said, "We started remembering what had happened (with al-Qaida) and how things went, and we decided to fight (al-Qaida)." The tribes are now participating in "salvation councils," which serve a local security function. They are also becoming platforms for political development and integration. But back to sex -- that tantalus plopped in the second paragraph. Dr. David Kilcullen serves as Gen. David Petraeus' chief adviser on counter-insurgency warfare. A former Australian infantry officer thoroughly versed in the cultural and historical contexts that shape people's perceptions and influence their opinions, Kilcullen assesses the cultural implications of Coalition military operations. Kilcullen appeared this week on PajamasMedia.com's "Blog Week in Review" Internet program. (Full disclosure: I host the show.) In Anbar, al-Qaida botched it big-time. "It boiled down to a conflict over women, as so many of these things do," Kilcullen told me. "Al-Qaida basically went to their tribal allies and said, 'Give us your daughter, or give us your sister in marriage.' ... In tribal custom, you don't allow outsiders ... to marry your daughter, I mean not on a regular basis ... they just don't willy-nilly give their women away to outsiders." Al-Qaida, Kilcullen said, told the tribes: "The Koran says that sort of behavior is ignorant and ungodly. You will give us your daughters to marry them." The tribes refused, and al-Qaida killed a tribal leader, which led to the blood feud. "The whole thing snowballed from there," Kilcullen said. In Kilcullen's analysis, al-Qaida failed to distinguish between tribal custom and religious doctrinal interpretations. Kilcullen said al-Qaida had "pitched" the tribes a "narrative" (a political appeal) that said: "We are Sunni, you're Sunni, the Americans are helping the Shia. Let's fight them together." The tribes initially cooperated, but al-Qaida's brand of religious absolutism (not to mention overweening arrogance) shredded the "we're in it together" propaganda. Al-Qaida has now trotted out a new "pitch" to the tribes. "It's more of a threat narrative," Kilcullen said. "The Americans are coming, and we're going to have to leave this district, but if you support the Americans we'll know about it. When we come back, we're going to kill you. ... This American thing is temporary. We're coming back. The future belongs to us, and we are going to take you back." Kilcullen pointed out that this is where the "gap" between what is said by al-Qaida and what it does creates a vulnerability for the terrorists. The coalition counters it "by proving to the people that we actually can protect them. And we're also proving to them that although the United States is not going to stay in Iraq forever, we are handing over to an Iraqi government that has their best interests at heart and can protect them from the terrorists." The coalition and Iraq political strategy, Kilcullen said, is "about proving the lie against al-Qaida." That's a strategic goal America set out to accomplish on Sept. 12, 2001. -------------------------- ------------------ Why The Most Important Stuff Is Not Reported June 13, 2007: The terrorists have changed tactics, and so has the United States, and that says much about where the battle for Iraq is going. There are fewer bombs going off in Baghdad, so the bombers are trying to make each one count more. Thus, in the last week, three truck bombs took out bridges and overpasses, seeking to make life miserable for a many Iraqis as possible. This is because despite all the dismal news from Iraq, what doesn't get reported is that most of the country is quiet, and there has been 4-5 percent growth in the overall economy for the past four years. Actually, there was a huge jump in economic growth, about 40 percent, in the year after Saddam fell. That has now settled down. Anyone who has been to Iraq, particularly American soldiers, can't help but notice the traffic jams, shops full of goods, and all those Iraqis walking around with their new cell phones. Yes, it's a war zone, but it's also a growing economy. The terrorists are also trying to get through to Shia religious shrines, as part of the al Qaeda strategy to enrage the Shia enough to cause a civil war in Iraq. To that end, a second successful attack was made on the Shia Golden Mosque was made, bringing down the two minarets (which are a distance from the golden dome of the mosque itself.) This has enraged Shia, but that is not making much difference. The Iraqi army and police are mostly Shia, with a Kurdish minority. The Shia security forces regularly terrorize Sunni Arab civilians, and encourage them to leave mixed (with Shia or Kurds) neighborhoods, and either leave the country, or move back to wholly Sunni Arab areas, like the Baghdad suburbs, or western Iraq. Iraqis Sunni Arab neighbors have already told the terrorists, publicly and privately, that they will not come to their aid. At least not as long as the Americans are there. The Arabs can count, and note that for each American soldier killed, at least ten of the attackers die. Another new terrorist tactic, which is already backfiring, is the threat to execute soldiers and police that have been captured. This would mean videos on the web of Iraqi soldiers and cops getting their heads cut off. That goes over real well with Iraqi civilians. who are already very anti-terrorist. Even most Sunni Arabs are fed up with the pointless (it hasn't accomplished anything in four years) terrorism. As a result, most Sunni Arab tribal and religious leaders have made, or are negotiating, deals with the government, or American combat commanders directly. In Sunni Arab areas, it's become quite common to see tribal gunmen fighting it out with terrorist gangs, especially foreign ones allies to al Qaeda. The Shia take if for granted that they are now in charge, and are maneuvering among themselves to see who will have the most power, and loot. Corruption and lack of civic spirit continue to be the biggest problems in Iraq. This sort of thing does not make loud noises, so does not get into the mass media much. But what is done about corruption, will have more to do with Iraqs future, than the battle with terrorists. ----------------------- The Islamic Persecution Paradox June 15, 2007: There is a fundamental lack of understanding between many Moslems and non-Moslems over the place of Islam in the world, and the reasons behind Islamic terrorism. The problem is that in Islam "tolerance" means "we're the dominant religion, and you practice yours according to our rules; special taxes, restrictions on symbols, music, etc., and, by-the-way, we can change our minds." While the Christian world has largely overcome these supremacist attitudes, many Moslems have not. Thus we have a situation where, in most countries where the population is split between Moslems and non-Moslems, it is the Moslems who are doing most of the attacking and persecuting. At the same time, these violent Islamic radicals insist they are doing it in self-defense. This makes no sense, especially to their many victims. The intolerance and terrorism doesn't end there. In countries like Malaysia, it's government policy to give Islamic law an edge over the civil law. In countries like Saudi Arabia, there is no civil law, only religious law, and a religious police force, paid for by the government, to enforce proper Islamic behavior on locals and foreigners alike. It's widely accepted in the Islamic world that the Christian West is on the rampage, and everything the West does is solely for the purpose of securing the oil supplies of Moslem countries, and ensuring the survival of Israel. These two items make cooperation with Moslems difficult, although Moslem countries are willing to work with the West to go after Islamic terrorists, especially if these Islamic radicals are carrying out attacks in Moslem nations. Note that, if an Islamic terrorist organization is not making attacks in a particular Moslem country, they will often find refuge there. This was how Syria, Libya, Iraq (before 2003) and Iran became safe havens for so many Islamic terrorist organizations. Of course, the West buys oil from Islamic nations, and the sellers need the buyers. Without the Western nations, what are the Moslem oil producing nations going to do with their oil? But that's typical Western logic, which is dismissed as wrongheaded by many Moslems, for reasons that are beyond the comprehension of most Westerners (and a lot of Moslems, but that's another story.) Same deal with Israel. Like many Arab nations, Israel was created out of bits and pieces of the old Ottoman empire. But because the Jews were not Moslems (although many are, at least according to their DNA, "Arabs."), it became official policy in most Moslem nations to deny that Israel exists or, failing that, to deny that it had a right to exist. This is a unique situation in world history, and even normally pro-Moslem officials at the UN point out that, well, Israel exists and everyone should get used to it. Moslems will ignore their religious, economic and anti-Semitic beliefs when it suits their purposes, but many will not abandon them, and that is a permanent problem in the global effort to contain Islamic terrorism. ----------------------- Terrorists Smell a Rat June 15, 2007: For good reason, little is heard of the role paid informants are playing in the war on terror. Not just the big rewards, but the many twenty and hundred dollar bills that are quietly passed out for of tips every day. The CIA and the U.S. military had to reeducated on the usefulness of this sort of thing, because the military usually doesn't do it, and the CIA has been discouraged from using human agents (HUMINT) since Congress cracked down on it three decades ago (Church Commission - ed). But in Iraq, Israeli advisors, and reservists who were cops and detectives in civilian life, brought some practical experience on how to make the practice work. The role of U.S. cops, on reserve duty, is worth several books length treatments. Some day. But these probably won't be written any time soon, because of security considerations. The bottom line is that police rely heavily on "confidential informants" (CIs), and most large departments have budgets for paying them. The FBI also has a lot of practical experience with CIs, and they sometimes contributed practical experience to the troops, and the CIA. The Israelis added their experience using other forms of enticements (favors from the government, in criminal and administrative matters, as well as the use of blackmail, and other forms of coercion), to get CIs to work for you. The use of CIs is now a common practice in the war on terror. Not just in Iraq, but in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan and many other nations. New York City cops, many of whom are in the reserves, brought another element to the table, and that was the use of computer database software to make the most of even the most innocuous bits of information. New York City continues to drive down its crime rate, because of the use of these data mining efforts. Such techniques have been used to locate many terrorist leaders. In some cases, this didn't result in capturing or killing someone, but in recruiting them, or getting them to publicly switch sides. In many Moslem nations, the leaders are more interested in trading information with the United States. Islamic terrorists are often heroes in nations where there is not much Islamic terrorism, and the local police know the best way to keep the terrorists out is to know who they are, where they are, and where they are planning to go next. Thus there are deals to be made even with nations that are, as far as the rest of the world knows, your enemy. That's why Iran, Sudan and Syria are often a good source of information, if you have something to trade. Actually, if you reach the right guy, a briefcase full of hundred dollar bills will do the trick. All you need to know is who is approachable, and that's where CIs can be vital. The terrorists know of this danger, and are being increasingly theatrical in how they execute CIs. Some of the guys getting their throats slit on camera, are innocent. The terrorists are often quite terrorized themselves when a CI gives up the location of a senior leader, who suddenly explodes when a Predator finds him. There is then an outcry to find the spy. In desperation, the Taliban, al Qaeda or whatever, will sometimes grab a likely suspect, kill him, and declare the problem solved. That leaves the CI alive, a bit shaken, but often still operational. HUMINT is a nasty business, but if often gets information all the spy satellites, listening posts and UAVs cannot. -------------- mh ."The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
