Leaving Iraq

[78RATS 0]

What will happen when we leave in your opinion, assuming the "situation" there is basically the same as now?

Rat for Life - Fly till I die
When them stupid ass bitches ask why

[Amazon 7]

Civil War. and the breakup of Iraq into Kurdistan, Sunnistan and Shiastan aligned with Iran.

[Skyrad 0]

Kurds are Sunni.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[GQ_jumper 4]

Kurds are Sunni.

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Not all Kurdsare sunni.

Amazon is on the right track, IMO. although I don't believe there would be a Sunnistan and Shiastan. the region known as kurdistan is fully prepared to annex itself at any moment, in their minds they already are independant. at the moment they are waiting for the referendum vote to see who gets control of kirkuk, without, they don't stand a chance. As for down south, the sunni's would never be able to pull together the manpower to create their own region. And if you look at the way they've been acting lately, which is basically like the nerdy kid on the playground who used to be friends with the big bully and always got his way but is now on without the big bully, they won't be going very far. The Sunnis screwed themselves over when the government started forming by not taking part in hopes that everything would suddenly go back to the way it was under Saddam and not the way it is now where the government is representative of all the ethnicities with groups getting a number of representatives that reflects their population.

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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[Amazon 7]

But they are a DISTINCT ethnic group... and this is going to break up not only along religious lines but tribal and ethnic lines as well

[Skyrad 0]

True on both counts but just being picky but GQ is also corrrect of course not all Kurds are Sunni but the majority are. Just as no ethnic group are totally one religion.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[Skyrad 0]

Once (I still doubt that it will happen anytime soon) the US leave Iraq, if the Kurds do declare themselves independent I think we will see all out war with them and Turkey and possibly other countries that have greater Kurdistan as part of their land.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[GQ_jumper 4]

But they are a DISTINCT ethnic group... and this is going to break up not only along religious lines but tribal and ethnic lines as well

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The Kurds are fairly well aligned so long as they have a common enemy(Saddam, Arabs, etc.), however when they aren't fighting a common enemy they have two major factions(political), the KDP, and the PUK. Basically their equivalant of our Dems. and Republicans. I have worked with them both and although they are both pro-US they are both justas under-handed as the other when it comes to getting THEIR way and trying to discredit the other.

IMO, the PUK holds the trump card, and that's only because they have the best chinese restraunt I have ever been to in my life in their capitol city no joking I was there last week.

I'm out for the night everyone, it's my night off and I'm going to pick up my girl and have a few libations before I have to head back out into the toasty weather tomorrow

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

[billvon 3,120]

Well:

I suspect we will never "leave" Iraq, as in get out completely. Our egos will not allow it. However, if we do pull back significantly, I see it fragmenting into the above-mentioned Kurdistan, Shia Iraq and Sunni Iraq. Which may not be an altogether bad thing. Why not let them draw their own borders, instead of honoring borders that Europeans laid down a century ago?

Attached is one possibility. In this one we assume that the US has kept control of Baghdad and allowed the rest of Iraq (and the rest of the Middle East really) to do as it sees fit.

[kelpdiver 2]

the Rand McNally war room really needs a break - they can't enlist any new volunteers either.

[GQ_jumper 4]

I suspect we will never "leave" Iraq, as in get out completely. Our egos will not allow it. However, if we do pull back significantly, I see it fragmenting into the above-mentioned Kurdistan, Shia Iraq and Sunni Iraq. Which may not be an altogether bad thing. Why not let them draw their own borders, instead of honoring borders that Europeans laid down a century ago?

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If that were to happen than economically two of those regions would get screwed. There's is a reason that Kirkuk is becoming such a point of controversy at the moment, if any group wants a fighting chance of making it on their own out here they need to control the oil in the north.

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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[billvon 3,120]

>If that were to happen than economically two of those regions would get screwed.

I agree. The question is - are they more screwed now? Is a resource-poor country at (relative) peace better than an oil-rich country with ongoing sectarian violence? I'd think the Iraqis are the best people to make that call.

[GQ_jumper 4]

Is a resource-poor country at (relative) peace better than an oil-rich country with ongoing sectarian violence?

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Good question, I think a lot of the issues that certain African countries would be a good example of what would happen if we split the country up into one rich country and two poor ones. and the Iraqis wouldnt' be able to stop fighting long enough to make a good decision, I'm not saying we need to play puppet master and lay their future out for them, but just look at what's going on in Kirkuk right now. both major ethnic groups are trying to force the other out by seeing who can build the most houses and move the most people in. And before you know it this place is going to explode. If the Kurds want Kirkuk so bad, give it to them, but make them stay on as a part of Iraq and pay part of their oil revenue to the rest of the country. They'll have the land to call their own and the Arabs will get resources in return for giving it to them. Personally I'm sick of seeing the Kurds try and tug at the heartstrings of the US cring about what Saddam did to them, it was far too long ago to keep crying. If you've ever been into Kurdistan you'd realize that they have it pretty damn good up there, ever since the UN took serious action to protect them they've been sitting pretty and now they are trying to play us for their personal gain.

And keeping Kurdistan as part of the government of iraq as a whole will keep Turkey from rolling across the border and settling their score. the kurds need to pull their heads out of their butt's and accept that they don't stand a chance against turkey.

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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