nerdgirl 0 #1 April 22, 2007 The subject line study was released last Monday. “A blue-ribbon panel of eleven retired three-star and four-star admirals and generals will release a report in Washington on Monday (April 16) looking at how changing global climate may present serious threats to U.S. national security and to American armed forces at home and abroad. "This Military Advisory Board and the CNA Corporation are unveiling the report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. The eight-month study examines how potential climate change may impact our military and recommends steps the Pentagon and national security community should take to prepare for any changes and to help mitigate damage. The military board members come from all branches of the U.S. armed forces. "The military advisiory board consisted of senior retired military leaders including: Gen. Gordon Sullivan, U.S. Army (ret), former Army Chief of Staff and current president of the Association of the United States Army (board chair) Adm. Joseph Prueher, U.S. Navy (ret), former Commander in Chief of all U.S. forces in the Pacific (Pacific Command) and former U.S. ambassador to the People's Republic of China Gen. Chuck Wald, U.S. Air Force (ret), former Deputy Commander of all U.S. forces in Europe and Africa (European Command) and former Director of Strategic Planning and Policy at Air Force Headquarters VAdm. Richard Truly, U.S. Navy (ret), former NASA Administrator, shuttle astronaut and the first commander of the Naval Space Command Lt. Gen. Larry Farrell, Jr., U.S. Air Force (ret), former Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs at Air Force Headquarters." Full report available at http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/. --- The study hardly represents the DoD first recognition of the connections between climate change & national security. In Feb 2005, the DoD Under Secretary for Acquisitions, Technology, and Logistics (AT&L), Ken Kreig (former VP International Paper, Inc, http://www.defenselink.mil/bios/biographydetail.aspx?biographyid=73) and the former Office of Force Transformation (OFT) launched a monthly series on Energy: A Conversation About Our National Addiction on “the central role energy plays in achieving national and program goals.” http://www.nps.edu/cebrowski/conversation.html (RIP Adm Cebrowski) and http://www.energyconversation.org/cms// I've been able to attend a little less than half - fascinating discussions in a context that one might not expect. Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nerdgirl 0 #2 April 22, 2007 In response to the DoD study, the Washington Times published a related opinion piece (http://www.washingtontimes.com/commentary/20070421-103141-6343r.htm) Climate of subtle conflict By Bryan K. Mignone/Mark D. Drapeau April 22, 2007 In the segregated world of Washington politics, environmentalists rarely cross paths with four-star generals. It's not that these groups avoid each other deliberately; there has never been a compelling reason to seek each other out. In light of this, last week's release of a report by the CNA Corp. titled "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change" seems especially significant. It just might indicate the start of a new era of cooperation between military planners and environmental advocates. The report, backed by a panel of 11 retired three-star and four-star admirals and generals, summarizes the results of an eight-month study on the implications of climate change for the U.S. military and for the national security community more generally. This is not the first time the Defense Department has grappled with the uncertain threat of global warming. In 2003, the Pentagon made headlines by commissioning a study on the security implications of abrupt climate change. But the authors of that assessment -- including Peter Schwartz, a former head of planning for Shell Oil -- found themselves the subject of some ridicule when they delivered a report that resembled a Hollywood thriller. This report is more significant, more pragmatic and much timelier. By coincidence or not, the report was released only a week after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- an international body of professional scientists and researchers -- released a report in which it concluded many consequences of climate change, once only speculative, have begun to emerge around the globe in subtle -- and in some cases, not so subtle -- ways. Whatever scientific uncertainties remain, two conclusions -- highlighted in both reports -- seem virtually inescapable. First, current trends in temperature and water availability will continue in the near future, leading to a greater incidence of heat-related illness, severe drought and infectious disease. Because some additional warming is unavoidable -- even if policies can be put in place soon to limit the atmospheric build-up of heat-trapping gases -- these outcomes can no longer be wished away. Secondly, modest changes in temperature and water availability will be far more disruptive in poorer communities, where adaptive capacity is weak, than in more prosperous ones where adaptive capacity is reasonably robust. In Africa, for example, between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to experience an increase in water stress due to climate change by 2020. In addition, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent in some regions over the same period. In other regions, and especially in Asia, even moderate sea level rise -- a robust prediction of climate models -- could threaten millions of coastal inhabitants. By focusing on near-term probable outcomes, rather than on those that are more dangerous but less likely to occur in the next several decades, the CNA report provides a foundation upon which practical policies can be built. In fact, the report advocates several policies that could be pursued today at limited cost. One example is a technology program that would make our military more agile and efficient but more resilient to changes in climate. More challenging are the panel's proposals to improve how our intelligence community anticipates emerging threats and our military responds to disruptive impacts in vulnerable regions. Successfully implementing such programs will require an unprecedented cooperation among subject experts, military personnel and indigenous professionals and a sophisticated appreciation for the ways in which climate, resources and culture interact. There are some encouraging signs that our national security community understands the need for transformation. For example, the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review concluded that future military operations would require enhanced capability to understand "social and cultural terrains" as well as various dimensions of human behavior. Programs of this sort -- if they could be expanded to include "environmental terrains" -- might be employed in a dual-use capacity, supporting the global war on terror and preventing or mitigating environmentally induced conflict. Ultimately, indigenous cultural and environmental knowledge could be integrated into a global early warning system, detecting subtle changes that might signal instability and a need for intervention. Such a program will require understanding and transforming our own military culture. The institutional barriers may be great, but what we have to lose is even greater. A posture of complacency only increases the likelihood of state failure and the possibility that our military -- already stretched thin -- could be thrust into the center of violent civil wars, costing billions of dollars and hundreds or thousands of American lives. Paradoxically, the stability of fragile cultures may depend on the flexibility of ours. Bryan K. Mignone is a Science & Technology Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. Mark D. Drapeau is an AAAS Science & Technology Policy Fellow at the Center for Technology and National Security Policy of the National Defense University. These views are their own and not the official views of the National Defense University, the U.S. Defense Department or the U.S. government. Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gawain 0 #3 April 22, 2007 I saw a news report about this last week. It was a directive from Congress if I recall, Sen. Hagel being one of the proponents of the initiation of the study. It's actually interesting how they may have discussed about how conflicts could erupt over water resources, fertile agricultural land resources, etc.So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright 'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life Make light! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amazon 7 #4 April 22, 2007 QuoteIt's actually interesting how they may have discussed about how conflicts could erupt over water resources, fertile agricultural land resources, etc. Not so surprising...hungry people have always had a propensity for going after resources they do not have. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nerdgirl 0 #5 April 22, 2007 QuoteI saw a news report about this last week. It was a directive from Congress if I recall, Sen. Hagel being one of the proponents of the initiation of the study.Quote Do you have the link to the Appropriations Bill? I have not heard that. There is discussion of Congressional hearings in response. And furthermore, if it was requested by Congress, it was requested by a Republican-controlled Congress. The DoD got their FY07 funding on time; they weren't on continuing resolutions this year. (The study would have been initiated with FY06 or FY05 funds in all liklihood.) Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Gawain 0 #6 April 22, 2007 QuoteQuoteI saw a news report about this last week. It was a directive from Congress if I recall, Sen. Hagel being one of the proponents of the initiation of the study.Quote Do you have the link to the Appropriations Bill? I have not heard that. There is discussion of Congressional hearings in response. And furthermore, if it was requested by Congress, it was requested by a Republican-controlled Congress. The DoD got their FY07 funding on time; they weren't on continuing resolutions this year. (The study would have been initiated with FY06 or FY05 funds in all liklihood.) Marg I saw the report in passing, but found several links when I googled "DOD study security threat climate change": http://www.desmogblog.com/u-s-senators-eye-spies-for-new-phase-in-climate-change-battle This bill may overlap the study you've noted.So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright 'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life Make light! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites nerdgirl 0 #7 April 22, 2007 QuoteI saw the report in passing, but found several links when I googled "DOD study security threat climate change": http://www.desmogblog.com/u-s-senators-eye-spies-for-new-phase-in-climate-change-battle This bill may overlap the study you've noted. Thanks for the link. That's a different effort. That's being discussed in the current Congress and is a call for a National Intelligence Estimates (NIE), which would be executed by the Intelligence Community (i.e., CIA) rather than an FFRDC for the DoD. "Senators of both parties are pushing for U.S. intelligence agencies to assess the danger to the nation's security posed by global warming." "Sens. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., Wednesday [28March07] introduced legislation that would 'require a National Intelligence Estimate to assess the security challenges presented by the world's changing climate,' according to a statement from their offices." http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/us_spies_urged_to_assess_global_warming/20070328-071343-7456r/ The proposed bill "also funds additional research (beyond the study mentioned in my first post) by the Department of Defense to examine the impact of climate change on military operations" - which likely means that it was part of the DoD's FY08 budget request. Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Join the conversation You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account. Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible. Reply to this topic... × Pasted as rich text. Paste as plain text instead Only 75 emoji are allowed. × Your link has been automatically embedded. Display as a link instead × Your previous content has been restored. Clear editor × You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL. Insert image from URL × Desktop Tablet Phone Submit Reply 0 Go To Topic Listing
Gawain 0 #6 April 22, 2007 QuoteQuoteI saw a news report about this last week. It was a directive from Congress if I recall, Sen. Hagel being one of the proponents of the initiation of the study.Quote Do you have the link to the Appropriations Bill? I have not heard that. There is discussion of Congressional hearings in response. And furthermore, if it was requested by Congress, it was requested by a Republican-controlled Congress. The DoD got their FY07 funding on time; they weren't on continuing resolutions this year. (The study would have been initiated with FY06 or FY05 funds in all liklihood.) Marg I saw the report in passing, but found several links when I googled "DOD study security threat climate change": http://www.desmogblog.com/u-s-senators-eye-spies-for-new-phase-in-climate-change-battle This bill may overlap the study you've noted.So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright 'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life Make light! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites nerdgirl 0 #7 April 22, 2007 QuoteI saw the report in passing, but found several links when I googled "DOD study security threat climate change": http://www.desmogblog.com/u-s-senators-eye-spies-for-new-phase-in-climate-change-battle This bill may overlap the study you've noted. Thanks for the link. That's a different effort. That's being discussed in the current Congress and is a call for a National Intelligence Estimates (NIE), which would be executed by the Intelligence Community (i.e., CIA) rather than an FFRDC for the DoD. "Senators of both parties are pushing for U.S. intelligence agencies to assess the danger to the nation's security posed by global warming." "Sens. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., Wednesday [28March07] introduced legislation that would 'require a National Intelligence Estimate to assess the security challenges presented by the world's changing climate,' according to a statement from their offices." http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/us_spies_urged_to_assess_global_warming/20070328-071343-7456r/ The proposed bill "also funds additional research (beyond the study mentioned in my first post) by the Department of Defense to examine the impact of climate change on military operations" - which likely means that it was part of the DoD's FY08 budget request. Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Join the conversation You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account. Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible. Reply to this topic... × Pasted as rich text. Paste as plain text instead Only 75 emoji are allowed. × Your link has been automatically embedded. Display as a link instead × Your previous content has been restored. Clear editor × You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL. Insert image from URL × Desktop Tablet Phone Submit Reply 0 Go To Topic Listing
nerdgirl 0 #7 April 22, 2007 QuoteI saw the report in passing, but found several links when I googled "DOD study security threat climate change": http://www.desmogblog.com/u-s-senators-eye-spies-for-new-phase-in-climate-change-battle This bill may overlap the study you've noted. Thanks for the link. That's a different effort. That's being discussed in the current Congress and is a call for a National Intelligence Estimates (NIE), which would be executed by the Intelligence Community (i.e., CIA) rather than an FFRDC for the DoD. "Senators of both parties are pushing for U.S. intelligence agencies to assess the danger to the nation's security posed by global warming." "Sens. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., and Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., Wednesday [28March07] introduced legislation that would 'require a National Intelligence Estimate to assess the security challenges presented by the world's changing climate,' according to a statement from their offices." http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/us_spies_urged_to_assess_global_warming/20070328-071343-7456r/ The proposed bill "also funds additional research (beyond the study mentioned in my first post) by the Department of Defense to examine the impact of climate change on military operations" - which likely means that it was part of the DoD's FY08 budget request. Marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
