Gas Prices

[TheBachelor 5]

http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2007/04/04/opinion/guest/50-will.txt

George Will: America's gas price woes highly over-reported

WASHINGTON - They come with metronomic regularity, these media stories about "soaring" gasoline prices and the causes thereof, news stories that always identify the same two culprits, supply and demand. The stories always give various reasons for supplies being tight - more often, why prices include a risk premium based on fears that supplies might become tight - or why demand is higher than it is "should" be, given supposedly high prices.

Today, as the price of a gallon of regular ($2.70 nationally on Monday) "soars" almost to where it was (measured in constant dollars) in 1982, the "news" is: "Drivers Offer a Collective Ho-Hum as Gasoline Prices Soar" (the New York Times, last Friday). People are not changing their behavior because the real, inflation-adjusted cost of that behavior has not changed significantly, and neither has the cost of the commodity in question, relative to disposable income.

The next wave of stories about "soaring" gas prices will predictably trigger some politicians' indignation about oil companies' profits. The day after Exxon Mobil's announcement that it earned $39.5 billion in 2006, Hillary Clinton said: "I want to take those profits, and I want to put them into a strategic energy fund that will begin to fund alternative smart energy, alternatives and technologies that will begin to actually move us toward the direction of independence."

Confiscatory itch

Clinton's "take" reveals her confiscatory itch. Her clunky "toward the direction of" suggests that she actually knows that independence is as chimeric a goal as Soviet grain production goals were.

President Bush proposes reducing gasoline usage 20 percent in 10 years. Perhaps: After the oil shocks of the late 1970s, gasoline consumption fell 12 percent and did not again reach 1978 levels until 1993. This decline was produced by an abrupt and substantial increase in the price of gasoline, which no politician, least of all the president, is proposing. And we actually could get lower prices because the president and various presidential candidates have become such enthusiasts for federal subsidies for ethanol and other alternative fuels. If these fuels threaten seriously to dampen demand for oil, the Saudis might increase production enough to drive down oil prices, in order to make investments - investors beware - in alternative fuels even more uneconomic than they already are.

In the 20 years from 1987 to 2006, Exxon Mobil invested more ($279 billion) than it earned ($266 billion). Five weeks after the company announced its 2006 earnings, it said it will invest $60 billion in oil and gas projects over the next three years. It will, unless a President Clinton and a Democratic-controlled Congress "take" Big Oil's profits, which are much smaller than Big Government's revenue from gasoline consumption.

Oil companies make about 13 cents on a gallon gas. Government makes much more. The federal tax is 18.4 cents per gallon. Mrs. Clinton's New York collects 42.4 cents a gallon. Forty-nine states - all but Alaska - make more than the oil companies do on every gallon.

Lots of oil in reserve

In 1971, according to M.A. Adelman, an MIT economist, non-OPEC countries had remaining proven reserves of 200 billion barrels. After the next 33 years of global economic growth, Adelman says, those countries had produced 460 billion barrels and had 209 billion remaining. As for OPEC countries, in 1971 they had 412 billion in proven reserves; by 2004 they had produced 307 billion and had 819 billion remaining.

Note the adjective "proven." In 1930, U.S. proven reserves were 13 billion barrels. Then we fought a global war, fueled the largest, most sustained economic expansion in human history, and achieved today's electricity-powered "information economy." Today, America's proven reserves are about 30 billion barrels - not counting the perhaps 15 billion in the field discovered last year in deep water 175 miles off Louisiana's coast.

America produces about one-quarter of the 20.6 million barrels of oil it uses a day. Unfortunately, just as liberals love employees but not employers, they want energy independence but do not want to drill in the "pristine" (read: desolate) Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (potential yield: 10.4 billion barrels) and are reluctant to countenance drilling offshore.

Well, then, what can be done immediately about the gasoline "crisis" du jour? Americans could save 1.2 billion of the 130 billion gallons of gasoline they use a year if they would properly inflate their tires. And they might do that if ever "soaring" prices actually make gasoline unusually expensive.

There are battered women? I've been eating 'em plain all of these years...

[akarunway 1]

look for 4 bucks in ca this yr

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

[billvon 3,116]

> look for 4 bucks in ca this yr . . .

See below; picture taken in San Francisco.

[Zipp0 1]

He wrote all of that just to have a chance to take a jab at Clinton. Amazing.

--------------------------
Chuck Norris doesn't do push-ups, he pushes the Earth down.

[billvon 3,116]

> He wrote all of that just to have a chance to take a jab at Clinton.

There are organizations spending millions to do just that; a mention in an article hardly qualifies as a serious "jab" nowadays. I'd say it's just the usual hatred.

[ExAFO 0]

SOP for oil/gas thread:

1: Someone bitches.
2: Euros remind us that their prices are higher.
3: Billvon's customary doomsday post, with self-congratulatory bits about his electric bike, solar panels, hybrid cars, and house located 1 nanometer from his workplace (all great, if you have the $ in the first place).
4: Someone calls Peak Oil junk science.
5: We all go skydiving on the weekend, burning x Gal/hr, depending on what the jumpship is.
6: This dead horse carcass of a thread gets put back into the stable until gas prices go up a quarter or two, after a 30-cent drop.

Illinois needs a CCW Law. NOW.

[billvon 3,116]

>SOP for oil/gas thread:

Nonsense! It's already taken a sudden turn into Hillary-bashing. Perhaps we can even get a "why do you hate the troops?" by the end of the day.

[kelpdiver 2]

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> look for 4 bucks in ca this yr . . .

See below; picture taken in San Francisco.

where/when?

Unless it's one of the notorious overchargers near the commuter routes, it seems less likely it was SF rather than some gouger in the South during Katrina.

[billvon 3,116]

>where/when?

It was from a news story. AFAICT it was Monday near an airport. (SFO?)

[rehmwa 2]

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> near an airport. (SFO?)

near an airport = proof it was gouging

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[akarunway 1]

Quote

Quote

> near an airport. (SFO?)

near an airport = proof it was gouging

And I just paid $7 for a pack of cigs. Bastards. Time to quit smoking. And 8$ BUCKS for a bottle of Zinfandale. Time to quit drinking and and driving and smokin. My friend does have some really good sinnsy bud he just homegrew. . Stop on by8

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

[livetofall 0]

What I've allways felt to be total bullshit is how the west coast oil companies allways follow problems whether its their neck of the woods or not. 4 yrs (or was it 3?) ago when gas got over 2.00 on the west coast due to the usuall OPEC and Alaska production game, gas was 1.50 in Minnesota. The crude coming from Canada there ofcourse. Now 5 months ago(west coast) gas was "affordable" then now the media brings up the bullshit about Katrina and the fire at the Texas refinery and WOOMPA our prices go up! WE DONT GET OUR FUCKING CRUDE FROM THERE!!! No matter where the crisis is , the west coast always jumps on the bandwagon where as the others states dont viceversa. Just for once I would like to see us have the lower prices. I dont like government control, but when it comes to neccessities, which petroleum has become in our society, it needs be

As far as that asslicking media, they allways fail to mention the amount of miles the average an American has to drive to work a week compared to a european when they go on and on with their price comparison. Really..you gotta wonder just how much the media is getting paid off by the oil companies. Fuck Europe! apples and oranges

www.911missinglinks.com the definitive truth of 9/11..the who and why, not how

You can handle the TRUTH www.theforbiddentruth.net

[billvon 3,116]

>WE DONT GET OUR FUCKING CRUDE FROM THERE!!! No matter where the
> crisis is , the west coast always jumps on the bandwagon where as the
>others states dont viceversa.

Well, there's a lot more to west coast gas prices than crude prices. There's the winter/summer formulation switch, which always causes some supply problems during the switchover. And west coast gas will always be about 5 cents more expensive anyway because they use cleaner-burning mixtures. Also, California in particular is a lot more car-based than many other areas (longer commutes, non-pedestrian city layouts, not much mass transit) so demand here is almost always higher.

>Just for once I would like to see us have the lower prices.

Get a flex-fuel car and get E85 instead of gasoline. Running about 80 cents cheaper than gas out here.

>I dont like government control, but when it comes to neccessities, which
> petroleum has become in our society, it needs be

Results of that: Rationing and/or closure of gas stations. The choice is really as much expensive gas as you want, or cheap gas that's hard to get. The question is - do you want the government to decide how much gas you are allowed to buy, or would you rather make the decision yourself based on gas prices?

>As far as that asslicking media, they allways fail to mention the amount
>of miles the average an American has to drive to work a week compared to
>a european when they go on and on with their price comparison.

Depends where you are. In Manhattan, most people commute by train. I did it for a year and it was pretty easy. We have to start putting more of these sorts of good mass transit systems so people do have the option if gas gets expensive.

[DrewEckhardt 0]

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As far as that asslicking media, they allways fail to mention the amount of miles the average an American has to drive to work a week compared to a european when they go on and on with their price comparison.

The average American _chooses_ to drive that far because it lets them own a detached single family home with twice a European's square footage and stay there when they change employers.

Except for the six months I spent as a contractor with clients in nearby towns, I haven't driven to work in fifteen years. In a less urban setting that meant a town home for what I'd have paid for a nice house elsewhere; down town it's a studio apartment and parking space (more money gets me a separate artist's loft for wood working and storage unit for toys I don't use that often).

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Really..you gotta wonder just how much the media is getting paid off by the oil companies. Fuck Europe! apples and oranges

It's global supply and demand and a distraction from real financial problems like the cost of housing or taxes.

The average American drove 13,657 miles in 2005. Average new car gas mileage has varied from 23.1 MPG in 1980 to 24.7 in 2004 or about 590 gallons of gasoline which would cost $1770 at $3 a gallon.

Many places you're going to be spending at least ten times that on the house the car lets you commute to. In places with high property values $30K a year in mortgage payments barely covers a $500K fixed upper (assuming you put a full $100K down).

[livetofall 0]

DEE-DEE-DEE...
And your point was????
Sound to me your just upset with the growth in Seattle and trying to put that picture to ALL of america. So your a software engineer turned "contractor". Well the rest of us tradesman that have to actually build large scale projects and maintain like powerhouses and refineries and those that have different careers have to travel. And America was set up alot different then Europe (its also called the Old Country) which is set more to villages where we set ours far apart. The average american has to drive 50 miles a day RT to work to say their max avg of 10..15? Move out of fucked up Seattle if you dont like the fact that outside the city is for the elite. America does go beyond east of Bellevue

www.911missinglinks.com the definitive truth of 9/11..the who and why, not how

You can handle the TRUTH www.theforbiddentruth.net

[billvon 3,116]

>The average american has to drive 50 miles a day RT to work . . .

Right, but again, their choice. Most people do this to get a house they like in an area they like, even if it's far from work. People could certainly choose to live closer and/or choose a place of work nearby. (Most americans do work in fixed locations.)

Let's take San Diego. If you work downtown, you can get an apartment in Chula Vista quite cheaply and take the trolley into work. Or you could get a house in Oceanside, pay more for it, and take the Coaster in. Or you could get a big house in Vista with some land for less money and have to drive 35 miles (about 90 minutes) every day. Your choice - but don't expect any sympathy when you choose the long commute and then gas prices go up. They always do.

[livetofall 0]

Did you just move to san diego from colorado? I though you lived in the highlands. I will accept your arguememnt becuase it does have a base...but that is California. That E85 is bringing the trades alot of work making ethanol plants but it still is more expensive because you dont get as many mpg as gas. Popular Mechanics had a great article around 6 months ago or so. The whole point is that oil products should not be based on a "supply and demand" this is a necessity not a fucking PS3 , as we have not a gross alternative too it. Its been pretty much a trust thing between the american people and the oil companies bieng that alternatives were shut down earty like the electric cars GM put out(damn what was the name of that movie?)
A great fact for you bill now that your in California. You do know of all the mass transit tunnels in LA that were never used? Well.... good ole shell oil made a deal to buy the city their busses and dump the project so they would buy their deisel. Can you see my point? We have been made form partners to slaves with the oil companies...allof a sudden oil had became a stock to please the investors rather than a regular commodity. Not right until other sources (such as E85, electric, and hydrogen) are a feasable option. As far as Opec goes, they shouldnt slow down production and other methods to raise it...staying away from the Iraq issue, we have loked over those countries for YEARS. ALL their asses would have been run over by Red China or USSR if it wasnt for our protection of nations. I think they owe us soem reasonability and thanks with cheaper oil. As far as im concerned CHARGE CHINA $200 per barrel, but we should be discounted to 30. Kinda like the rich punk kid in school you protected in school, to forget you after he makes big success. He would have got his ass beat every day if it wasnt for you but then forgets you.

www.911missinglinks.com the definitive truth of 9/11..the who and why, not how

You can handle the TRUTH www.theforbiddentruth.net

[BikerBabe 0]

Quote

Today, as the price of a gallon of regular ($2.70 nationally on Monday) "soars" almost to where it was (measured in constant dollars) in 1982, the "news" is: "Drivers Offer a Collective Ho-Hum as Gasoline Prices Soar" (the New York Times, last Friday). People are not changing their behavior because the real, inflation-adjusted cost of that behavior has not changed significantly, and neither has the cost of the commodity in question, relative to disposable income.

But people ARE changing...look at the sheer popularity of hybrid cars. Now, i'm not saying that hybrids are the answer, and their impact is probably overhyped...but it's what the average Joe sees, that hybrids are gonna cut his gas cost, and hey! maybe help the air quality, too...so he goes and starts to think of a hybrid as a legitimate choice for a new car. On a personal note...you will now find my husband riding a bicycle to work 2-3 days a week. and it's not that we live next door to his office. it's about 15 miles away. But he found that not only do we save money...he LIKES IT! *gasp*

What i don't understand about pedants like George Will is why they are so ADAMANTLY against lessening our dependency on oil. Unless he's a paid shill for the oil companies...what the HELL is so wrong with lessening that dependency?

I'd love to hear a GOOD argument as to why we shouldn't promote fuel efficiency, and less dependence on oil (note i didn't specify where it comes from). "Quality of life" is not a good argument. I think there have been countless examples of how we can still maintain a decent standard of living being less dependent on oil. Think of him what you will, but Billvon is an excellent example of that.

If anything...i would love to save a lot of that petroleum that we're pumping into our Hummers for things that WILL degrade our quality of life if lost...such as plastics.

What is so wrong with needing oil less?

Never meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!

[Gene03 0]

Quote

SOP for oil/gas thread:

1: Someone bitches.
2: Euros remind us that their prices are higher.
3: Billvon's customary doomsday post, with self-congratulatory bits about his electric bike, solar panels, hybrid cars, and house located 1 nanometer from his workplace (all great, if you have the $ in the first place).
4: Someone calls Peak Oil junk science.
5: We all go skydiving on the weekend, burning x Gal/hr, depending on what the jumpship is.
6: This dead horse carcass of a thread gets put back into the stable until gas prices go up a quarter or two, after a 30-cent drop.

Congrats, your first coherent post in a long time.
I forget, do you like cats?

“The only fool bigger than the person who knows it all is the person who argues with him.

Stanislaw Jerzy Lec quotes (Polish writer, poet and satirist 1906-1966)

[billvon 3,116]

>That E85 is bringing the trades alot of work making ethanol plants but
>it still is more expensive because you dont get as many mpg as gas.

Right, your gas mileage goes down by about 20%. But out here it's 24% cheaper, so it's still a better deal. And while they're not making any more crude (which means it will get more expensive as time goes on) they _are_ making more ethanol - and it comes from US farmers, not arab monarchies.

E85 from corn isn't going to work in the long run, but it is a first step. The next step is cellulosic ethanol, which is ethanol from cornstalks, woodchips etc. For now I hope we get more flex-fuel cars out there so we are ready to make the switch.

>You do know of all the mass transit tunnels in LA that were never used?
>Well.... good ole shell oil made a deal to buy the city their busses and
>dump the project so they would buy their deisel. Can you see my point?

Yep. But that's nothing new; oil companies are out to make money, not improve anyone's life.

>We have been made form partners to slaves with the oil
>companies...

I don't think we've really ever been "partners."

>As far as Opec goes, they shouldnt slow down production and other
> methods to raise it...

I hope they keep slowing down production. As you've mentioned, we very much need E85, biodiesel, PHEV's, pure electrics etc to wean us from oil. The _only_ way that will happen is if gas is so expensive that those things are cheaper options. We're close now. But if gas gets cheaper again, we'll drop all those fancy new ideas faster than you can say "Cadillac Escalade" and run right back into the arms of big oil.

>Kinda like the rich punk kid in school you protected in school, to forget
> you after he makes big success. He would have got his ass beat every
>day if it wasnt for you but then forgets you.

I think we've done about an equal share of protecting and pounding the crap out of the schoolyard kids. Sure, most of the ones we pounded were the bad ones. But they're grown up now, and are selling us oil, and aren't going to forget what we did to them in school.

[kelpdiver 2]

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The average american has to drive 50 miles a day RT to work

Seems unlikely if the yearly average is under 14,000. 10k for commuting, 4k for all else?

I was averaging 14,000/year while driving my car to work 2-3 days a *year*.

[shropshire 0]

#2 : O.K Yanks

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[rehmwa 2]

Quote

>That E85 is bringing the trades alot of work making ethanol plants but
>it still is more expensive because you dont get as many mpg as gas.

Right, your gas mileage goes down by about 20%. But out here it's 24% cheaper, so it's still a better deal. And while they're not making any more crude (which means it will get more expensive as time goes on) they _are_ making more ethanol - and it comes from US farmers, not arab monarchies.

It's not nearly that discounted anywhere else.

It a balancing act - that's why people should try pricing out gas as $$$/mile, rather than $$$/gallon - it's trickier, but it does expose scams like E85. Also give you the true value of your fuel - you don't purchase gallons of gas, you purchase gas to drive miles. You are buying miles.

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[ExAFO 0]

Quote

Congrats, your first coherent post in a long time.
I forget, do you like cats?

Hit yourself in the forehead with a claw hammer. Hard. Several Times.

Illinois needs a CCW Law. NOW.

[rushmc 23]

Quote

> look for 4 bucks in ca this yr . . .

See below; picture taken in San Francisco.

that is what $2 plus worth of state taxes will get ya

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln