Guest #1 February 1, 2007 From the Strategy Page: The Quest for Kosovo's "Final Status" by Austin Bay - January 23, 2007 After 16 years of war and peacekeeping, the Great Yugoslav War of Devolution has entered a new, promising phase. But don't call it finished, and don't call it peace -- at least not quite yet. A substantial slice of Serbia's electorate remains angry and unpacified. In last Sunday's Serbian election, the "ultra-nationalist" Serbian Radical Party (SRP) took the largest number of party-line votes. The SRP opposes the creation of an independent Kosovo and lays claim to parts of Bosnia and Croatia. Though disdaining former Serb dictator Slobodan Milosevic (who died while being tried for genocide), the SRP has no intention of compromising over Kosovo. Nor have SRP voters forgiven Western Europe and the United States for the 1999 "NATO war" on Serbia, a war fought without U.N. authorization. Yet Western European diplomats are delighted with the election results. The SRP did not get enough votes to form a government. Initial results indicate a patchwork collection of "pro-European" democratic parties took over 60 percent of the vote. Political and economic aid from the European Union should cobble together a coalition "reform government" that may control a two-thirds majority Serbia's parliament. That doesn't immediately translate into a peaceful resolution of what to do about Kosovo (the "final status" decision in diplo-speak), but it does bode well for continuing the slow integration of Yugoslavia's leftovers into the European Union. Given time, European diplomats are betting that the Balkan integration project will slowly decompress the historical, ethnic and religious antagonisms that afflict the region. The Balkans in 2007 are different, and far better off, than the Balkans in 1999. Macedonia and Albania have stabilized (and remember, Macedonia was fighting a civil war in 2001). Croatia has made economic and political progress. However, a small EU-led peacekeeping contingent remains in Bosnia, with good reason. Bosnia's "split state," with Bosnian Muslims and Croats balancing Bosnian Serbs, just manages to creak along. NATO troops also remain in Kosovo, some 16,500 as of Jan. 1. That is a long-term occupation. Over the last eight years, the United Nations and European Union have played a careful diplomatic game regarding Kosovo's final status. The Serbs, however, aren't stupid and can read the diplomatic body language. That wiggling semaphore suggests the European Union will recommend Kosovar independence -- though likely an independence with limitations. What that might look like in political and organizational terms remains intentionally vague. There is also talk of "autonomy" within a "democratic Serbia," though Albanian Kosovars (who now control Kosovo) reject this option. Still, a democratic Serbia does exist, and Serbia just conducted a clean, honest election. Last year, the European Union and United Nations said a decision on Kosovo would take place shortly after the Serbian elections. Now, the United States says all parties should take "more time." Certainly, Serbia's reform parties have earned the opportunity to form a government and establish its bona fides without the disruption of a U.N. decision. "More time" also gives European politicians time to coax Russia. The Russians have objected to Kosovar independence from Serbia, and Russia wields a U.N. Security Council veto, which could block a pro-independence U.N. policy. Kosovo's government has approached Moscow on its own, trying to assure the Kremlin that Kosovar independence won't set a precedent for other independence and separatist movements in Europe. That's a tough sell, but Moscow might agree in return for future political considerations. What might those include? Concessions regarding the status of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and Transdniestr are possibilities. Advocates of partition in Iraq should approach "the Yugoslav analogy" with extreme caution. Syria, Iran and Turkey thoroughly oppose an independent Kurdistan, carved from Iraq. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait oppose an independent Shia Arab state in southern Iraq. Both do provide rough analogs to Serbian and Russian opposition to Kosovar independence. However, the Middle East's dysfunctional neighborhood lacks a European Union -- a stable, supra-national "reuniter" that rewards peace and democracy with economic and political benefits. The missing "Middle Eastern EU" is a major difference. ---------------------------- mh ."The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
warpedskydiver 0 #2 February 1, 2007 Where are all the usual far left screamers on this one? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #3 February 1, 2007 QuoteWhere are all the usual far left screamers on this one? Oh my god. Nobody posted in this thread between 5am and 7am? It must be a conspiracy! First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
warpedskydiver 0 #4 February 1, 2007 Contribute or move on.... Now back in your trunk! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jakee 1,611 #5 February 1, 2007 QuoteContribute or move on.... Well I would, but it's taking me a while to digest your own stimulating, well thought out, multifaceted response. I'll get back to you when I have a comprehensive answer for each of your discussion points.Do you want to have an ideagasm? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,465 #6 February 1, 2007 This is the same Strategy Page as the one that came up with the "Top 10 Myths about the war in Iraq"? Maybe many haven't responded to it, cause it should be filed with the National Enquirer? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,132 #7 February 1, 2007 >Where are all the usual far left screamers on this one? Killing babies, supporting child molesters, trying to force people to be gay, shoving vile lies down people's throats. You know, all the usual stuff. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
warpedskydiver 0 #8 February 2, 2007 It's ok, I understand, things to see, people to do. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rmsmith 1 #9 February 3, 2007 When was the last time you bought something produced in this part of the world? Download any software from there? Recently vacation there? Simply put, the Balkans are living on western welfare, and they will be for decades too since there isn't anything going on to support themselves. Oh, don't forget the alcoholism, aids, low birth weight, lung cancer, etc., which are abundant qualities of these religiously divided people. Future status? As a consumer and investor I'd likely short 'em until things change. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest #10 February 3, 2007 "Interim" or "tentative" independence will open the way to foreign investment. This place has a lot of problems, it's true, but it also has a lot of potential. The biggest problem, IMO is that the Kosovars aren't particularly civic-minded. It's a very tribal, every-man-for-himself and to-heck-with-everyone-else attitude that's hurting them the most. Until they're able to put the needs of their fellow citizens somewhat on a par with their own, they'll never be anything but a client state, utterly dependent upon the welfare provided by wealthier nations. Some of the discussions I've had with people at somewhat high levels here (UNMIK staffers, etc.) have centered around a "kick 'em out of the nest" approach, where all the welfare is slowly phased out, forcing the Kosovars to rely more upon themselves. They want independence, but they don't seem to want the responsibility that comes with it. They can't have it both ways, and they're slow to come to terms with that. m ."The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyChimp 0 #11 February 4, 2007 Quote>Where are all the usual far left screamers on this one? Killing babies, supporting child molesters, trying to force people to be gay, shoving vile lies down people's throats. You know, all the usual stuff. You forgot holding "peace" rallies in D.C. .on behalf of Jihad Does anyone else find it funny that we made a SPORT out of an EMERGENCY PROCEDURE?!?! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ExAFO 0 #12 February 4, 2007 I am concerned about Manx Cats.Illinois needs a CCW Law. NOW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #13 February 4, 2007 QuoteQuote>Where are all the usual far left screamers on this one? Killing babies, supporting child molesters, trying to force people to be gay, shoving vile lies down people's throats. You know, all the usual stuff. You forgot holding "peace" rallies in D.C. .on behalf of Jihad Oh dear. I think the term "***WHOOOSH***" is appropriate here. First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyChimp 0 #14 February 4, 2007 Narcimund, are you implying that "spin" may be present? Does anyone else find it funny that we made a SPORT out of an EMERGENCY PROCEDURE?!?! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #15 February 4, 2007 QuoteNarcimund, are you implying that "spin" may be present? No, that's not what I was implying. First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
