England: Gun Crime still Rising

[Kennedy 0]

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There is one interesting thing to remember. England has a far higher violent crime rate, and a higher overall crime rate than the US. The one place the US far outstrips the UK is in homicides. While far more brits, scots, irish, etc will be victims of a serious crime, the number of Americans killed per population is higher.

1. What do you mean by FAR higher?
2. You have data to PROVE it?
3. If it's true, then the argument that the US has a culture of violence that accounts for its higher homicide rate is clearly false.
4. You need to be less confused about who you are talking about; is it England, Scotland, Ireland, Britain or the UK?

First off I am growing tired of showing you the same statistics over and over kallend. I've shown you in several threads that my statements are true, backing them up with government data from the US and the UK. Second, the UK government's site gets harder and harder to deal with every year, and more and more obfuscation or incompetence is present each time I search for anything there.

For some reason (their site is terrible), I can no longer find population data for any time after 2001 for the UK. 2001 population
England 49,138,831 Wales 2,903,085
England and Wales violent crime: 2,420,000 against adults

Notice that that says against adults. nowhere in dozens of pdfs could I find a simple statement of how many violent crimes were committed, and by this definition and their own statements, they leave out two years worth of those most likely to be victims of violent crimes - 16 and 17 year olds.

That is a population of 52,041,916, which gives a ratio of approximately 4650 violent crimes per 100,000 population in England and Wales, so the real number is even higher once you include the violent crimes against 16 and 17 year olds.

The FBI [url"http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/offenses/violent_crime/index.html"]gives us the following statements,[/url] very clearly, for the year 2005 -

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An estimated 1,390,695 violent crimes occurred nationwide in 2005.
During 2005, there were an estimated 469.2 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.

4650 crimes versus 469 crimes per 100,000 residents. I'd say ten times the number of violent crimes qualifies as Far more, wouldn't you kallend?

Ah ha, here is a post of mine from two years ago

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# In 2002/03, 27% of the population were the victims of some type of crime.

# This has fallen from a high in 1995 of nearly 40% of the population.
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# In 2002/03, 4.1% of people experienced a violent incident, approximately half of which resulted in some injury.

4% of Americans have contact with any crime. That percent of the UK has contact with violent crime.

http://www.crimestatistics.org.uk/output/Page54.asp
http://www.crimestatistics.org.uk/output/Page63.asp

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[Scoop 0]

Firstly violent crime ISN'T gun crime.

Secondly, a quote from the Home Office crime statistics webpage.

Offences of violence...

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Common assault (includes some minor injury);
Common assault (no injury)
Assaulting another person where the victim receives a minor injury or, as of 2002/03, no injury.

So as of 2003 we started recording common assault which includes no injury (ie pushing and shoving) as a violent crime. As a result parents have been ridiculously requesting police involvment after playground incidents. Could this explain the hike? I assure you this is more common that the likes of murder, GBH etc

[NCclimber 0]

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Second, the UK government's site gets harder and harder to deal with every year, and more and more obfuscation or incompetence is present each time I search for anything there.

LOL - Too True!!!

It seems like about 1/2 of the information in those reports is dedicated to explaining how the surveys were conducted and 1/3rd is about victims of multiple crimes. That leaves about 1/6th for reporting on crime for the overall population. Looking for per capita figures? Fagedaboudit!!!

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Your commentary and stats are completely useless without a definition of violent crime for both the UK and the US.

Unless the definition is identical, the comparison of stats means absolutely nothing.

[DZJ 0]

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For some reason (their site is terrible), I can no longer find population data for any time after 2001 for the UK. 2001 population

Simple reason for that, 2001 was when the last census was taken.

Without a detailed definition of what is taken to be a 'violent crime' in those statistics, the ratio you calculated is neither here nor there. [Ah, I see SkyDekker has beaten me to it]

[NCclimber 0]

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Without a detailed definition of what is taken to be a 'violent crime' in those statistics, the ratio you calculated is neither here nor there. [Ah, I see SkyDekker has beaten me to it]

Considering you and skydekker have been participating in this thread for over a week, your johnny-come-lately point seems like semantic hair splitting.

[DZJ 0]

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Considering you and skydekker have been participating in this thread for over a week, your johnny-come-lately point seems like semantic hair splitting.

Pardon? My recent posts in this thread have mostly been requests for details and statistics, and questions about American law. I haven't taken a position on either side of your or kallend's lengthy and unproductive argument.

If my pointing out an obvious and fundamental question about statistics is 'semantic hair-splitting', then I think you should be reexamining your attitude to data.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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your johnny-come-lately point seems like semantic hair splitting.

Unless the statistics he provided can be compared as apples to apples, they are rather useless. That isn't semantic hair splitting, it is somewhat common sense.

[kallend 2,150]

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There is one interesting thing to remember. England has a far higher violent crime rate, and a higher overall crime rate than the US. The one place the US far outstrips the UK is in homicides. While far more brits, scots, irish, etc will be victims of a serious crime, the number of Americans killed per population is higher.

1. What do you mean by FAR higher?
2. You have data to PROVE it?
3. If it's true, then the argument that the US has a culture of violence that accounts for its higher homicide rate is clearly false.
4. You need to be less confused about who you are talking about; is it England, Scotland, Ireland, Britain or the UK?

First off I am growing tired of showing you the same statistics over and over kallend.

Now you know how I feel about NCclimber's stupid repeated requests.

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I've shown you in several threads that my statements are true, backing them up with government data from the US and the UK. Second, the UK government's site gets harder and harder to deal with every year, and more and more obfuscation or incompetence is present each time I search for anything there.

The UK has a UCR report just like the FBI and Canada.

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4650 crimes versus 469 crimes per 100,000 residents. I'd say ten times the number of violent crimes qualifies as Far more, wouldn't you kallend?

Funny that the UK UCR data is quite at variance with your numbers. Funny that a US Department of Justice Report explicitly states that the rate of violent crime in the US is much the same as in the UK. (and I've already given the link to that report).

Maybe you need to look for a better source.



Even if, just for the sake of argument, we consider your numbers accurate (which I dispute). What does that do for the oft repeated "explanation" of the US homicide rate as being due to the US having a culture of violence compared with the UK?

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[NCclimber 0]

Your point about the data is a valid one. I was just point out that its timing is a bit suspect.

[DZJ 0]

Afraid I don't see how. My post was entirely consistent with my recent posts to this thread.

[kallend 2,150]

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Afraid I don't see how. My post was entirely consistent with my recent posts to this thread.

Your post is 100% relevant. From Kennedy's source:
For a variety of reasons, people do not always report crimes to the police - which means they don't get reflected in police recorded crime figures.


The British Crime Survey (BCS) asks people about their actual experiences - and so gives us a more accurate picture of crime levels and trends across England & Wales.

So he's comparing a UK survey that adds in unreported crimes, with FBI data that includes only US crimes actually reported to the police.

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[NCclimber 0]

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Afraid I don't see how. My post was entirely consistent with my recent posts to this thread.

Your post is 100% relevant.

I guess it would invalidate your points ,too.

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The "violence culture" explanation for the high US homicide rate is not supported by comparative data on violent crime rates between the US, Canada, England and Wales. UCR data from the US, Canada and the UK show this, and the US DoJ BJS report in 2004 mentions explicitly that overall rates of violent crimes are essentially the same.

[kallend 2,150]

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Afraid I don't see how. My post was entirely consistent with my recent posts to this thread.

Your post is 100% relevant.

I guess it would invalidate your points ,too.

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The "violence culture" explanation for the high US homicide rate is not supported by comparative data on violent crime rates between the US, Canada, England and Wales. UCR data from the US, Canada and the UK show this, and the US DoJ BJS report in 2004 mentions explicitly that overall rates of violent crimes are essentially the same.

I think you misinterpreted something there.

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[ExAFO 0]

Poop.

Illinois needs a CCW Law. NOW.

[NCclimber 0]

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I think you misinterpreted something there.

Oops.

[kelpdiver 2]

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Your commentary and stats are completely useless without a definition of violent crime for both the UK and the US.

Unless the definition is identical, the comparison of stats means absolutely nothing.

1 in 25 being victimized every year seems like a rather dreadful rate. I don't think any of my friends are, so perhaps it's the people I don't know in America that are taking it on the chin all the time.

[kallend 2,150]

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Your commentary and stats are completely useless without a definition of violent crime for both the UK and the US.

Unless the definition is identical, the comparison of stats means absolutely nothing.

1 in 25 being victimized every year seems like a rather dreadful rate. I don't think any of my friends are, so perhaps it's the people I don't know in America that are taking it on the chin all the time.

I suspect you'll find rates at least that high in many US inner cities, and very low rates in rural North Dakota.

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[kelpdiver 2]

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I suspect you'll find rates at least that high in many US inner cities, and very low rates in rural North Dakota.

I live in San Francisco. About the Bay, the distance between the inner city and the posh is rarely more than 2 or 3 miles. Sometimes it's just 2 or 3 city blocks.

[kallend 2,150]

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I suspect you'll find rates at least that high in many US inner cities, and very low rates in rural North Dakota.

I live in San Francisco. About the Bay, the distance between the inner city and the posh is rarely more than 2 or 3 miles. Sometimes it's just 2 or 3 city blocks.

Tried walking through Oakland at night? (I used to live in Berzerkely).

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Kennedy 0]

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The "violence culture" explanation for the high US homicide rate is not supported by comparative data on violent crime rates between the US, Canada, England and Wales. UCR data from the US, Canada and the UK show this, and the US DoJ BJS report in 2004 mentions explicitly that overall rates of violent crimes are essentially the same.

What in the heck are you talking about. Crime rates between the US and UK are about as different as day and night. What is it that you think is the same? Crime in the UK far outpaces crime in the US. Violent crime in the UK far outpaces violent crime in the US. Homcides in the US far outweight homicides in the UK per population. Not exactly similar pictures if you ask me.

You are talking about an interpretation, not simple facts. Please expound on your "culture of violence" theory.

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The US homicide rate is some 2.5 times higher than in similar countries. Only in homicides is the US way out of line.

What countries do you consider "similar?" From what country do we have a 250% higher homicide rate? And since one rate hardly proves anything, what is that country's violent crime rate and overal crime rate compared to those of the US?

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Handguns are by far the predominant homicide weapon in the US.

So what? Would you prefer to be murdered by some other implement? The method of murder does not have a significant effect on the number of murders.

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Over 340,000 guns get into the hands of criminals each year from legal US gun owners.

What does this number come from. Would you care to compare that to the number ofguns sold each year and the number of guns owned in the US?

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"NO CARRY" states have lower rates of violent crime and homicides than the US national average.

I'm going to throw the brown flag at this one. Prove it.

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The US DoJ data on rate of defensive gun use shows far smaller numbers than frequently quoted on pro-gun web sites.

Actualy just about any impartial statistian will tell you that the Kleck study is the most reliable, but even if you choose to ignore peer reviewed journals, your "far smaller" numbers are so significant that even if they are true then they don't diminish the self defense arguments for gun ownership in the slightest.

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Decreases in violent crime in the US from 1995 - 2004 occurred both in "carry" and "no carry" states. The US Department of Justice attributes this decrease to factors other than CCW laws.

Even if we ignore that sudden drops in states that passed concealed carry laws were not correlated with similar drops in other areas, you make one very important argument for CCW supporters. That is: CCW laws do no increase crime - long term trends in carry states and no carry states were both downwards, and the rate of drop in the carry states was equal to or better than no carry states.

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Homicide rates and violent crime rates have been increasing in the US since 2004.

Peaks and valleys happen. The rate of change is not unheard of, or alltogether unexpected.

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[Kennedy 0]

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The UK has a UCR report just like the FBI and Canada.

I'd love to see a copy of it, but I sure as heck can't find one. If you could provide a link I'd be grateful.

As yes, I used BCS numbers because that's all I could find that'd be somewhat useful. A better comparison to them would the the USA's NCVS, and that would show similar, though slightl smaller, differences.

Also, I really would like to see this statement that says the US and the UK have similar crime rates. If you could repost the link or link back to your post that included it, I'd appreciate it.

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Guard your honor, let your reputation fall where it will, and outlast the bastards.
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[kallend 2,150]

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The UK has a UCR report just like the FBI and Canada.

I'd love to see a copy of it, but I sure as heck can't find one. If you could provide a link I'd be grateful.

As yes, I used BCS numbers because that's all I could find that'd be somewhat useful. A better comparison to them would the the USA's NCVS, and that would show similar, though slightl smaller, differences.

Also, I really would like to see this statement that says the US and the UK have similar crime rates. If you could repost the link or link back to your post that included it, I'd appreciate it.

“Cross-National Studies in Crime and Justice,” US Dept. of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2004:

Be careful to compare like with like. Crimes reported to the police and crimes claimed in surveys give VERY different numbers see, for example, www.cambridge.org/uk/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521680417



Both the US and the UK do both. Canada reports crimes reported to the police in the CCSJ but I'm not sure of any surveys.

Try www.crimestatistics.org.uk/tool/Default.asp?region=0&force=0&cdrp=0&l1=6&l2=0&l3=0&sub=0&v=36 for reported violent crimes in England and Wales. Averages in the high 400s per 100,000 pop., very similar to the US figure from the FBI.

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[kelpdiver 2]

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I suspect you'll find rates at least that high in many US inner cities, and very low rates in rural North Dakota.

I live in San Francisco. About the Bay, the distance between the inner city and the posh is rarely more than 2 or 3 miles. Sometimes it's just 2 or 3 city blocks.

Tried walking through Oakland at night? (I used to live in Berzerkely).

So did I, and I still claim my perm address in Oakland. You have neighborhoods like Rockridge, Crocker, Piedmont, Jack London Square, and nearby Alameda just miles off the less lovely parts. Instead of the railroad track, we have the 880 and 580 sometimes representing a very big difference in class.

Come on, you're better off with 1994 data. I live here. Right now. I only purchased my guns to beat Sacramento to a ban. They've never been used or brought out for a perceived fear.

[kallend 2,150]

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I suspect you'll find rates at least that high in many US inner cities, and very low rates in rural North Dakota.

I live in San Francisco. About the Bay, the distance between the inner city and the posh is rarely more than 2 or 3 miles. Sometimes it's just 2 or 3 city blocks.

Tried walking through Oakland at night? (I used to live in Berzerkely).

So did I, and I still claim my perm address in Oakland. You have neighborhoods like Rockridge, Crocker, Piedmont, Jack London Square, and nearby Alameda just miles off the less lovely parts. Instead of the railroad track, we have the 880 and 580 sometimes representing a very big difference in class.

Come on, you're better off with 1994 data. I live here. Right now. I only purchased my guns to beat Sacramento to a ban. They've never been used or brought out for a perceived fear.

I walk unarmed through Chicago at night. Doesn't mean I'd recommend a stranger to walk through Chicago at night.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.