Nightingale 0 #26 November 9, 2006 Yep. I had to take the afternoon off so I could go vote, because my polling place is on the other side of the county from my job. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DrewEckhardt 0 #27 November 10, 2006 Quote Note that the US and the UK are long-standing stable democracies, where the integrity of the rule of law and the democratic process can, justifiably, be taken for granted by their respective citizens. I imagine that leads to some complacency in the electorate. By contrast, Germans and Italians recall a fairly recent history of Nazism and Fascism, so participation in the democratic process is probably held more dear, and not taken for granted, by their citizens. Similarly, plenty of Spaniards voted when their democracy was young and fresh; but complacency had set in 30 years later. The US and UK elect our legislative bodies using a first-past-the-post system where a simple plurality within that district elects all its representatives. Two dominant political parties are the natural result of such a system. Your vote doesn't directly count in such a system if - You favor a third party, since your candidate can't be elected - You favor the other major party from that which holds the plurality in your district since your cancidate can't be elected - You favor the major party in your district which holds a strong plurality, since you'll get the same number of representative votes for your party regardless of whether you personally cast a ballot. Germany and Italy have proportional representation in at least one legislative chamber. Under such a system, your vote always counts. Minority parties get a few candidates in, and a larger plurality by a big party nets more seats. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pubwoof 0 #28 November 10, 2006 Futility. People of all political stripes perceive that their vote won't actually change anything for the better. Populists see two corporate parties, libertarians see two big-goverment parties, fundamentalists see two heathen parties, NAMBLAites (or whatever the hell they are) see two oppressor parties, and middle-of-the-road people see two parties of politicians. Just an opinion that might make some sense. The glass isn't always half-full OR half-empty. Sometimes, the glass is just too damn big. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andy9o8 2 #29 November 10, 2006 Good analysis of why Germans and Italians are motivated to vote in higher numbers than US & UK. Thanks. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lauras 0 #30 November 10, 2006 Thanks, everyone, for your thoughts. Voter apathy & disgust with "politics as usual" is an across the board problem. I honestly wish our nation's citizens would take a more active interest in what's going on in their own communities, if not nationally or even globally. Gives me agita. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
crwtom 0 #31 November 10, 2006 Quote The US and UK elect our legislative bodies using a first-past-the-post system where a simple plurality within that district elects all its representatives. Two dominant political parties are the natural result of such a system. Your vote doesn't directly count in such a system if - You favor a third party, since your candidate can't be elected - You favor the other major party from that which holds the plurality in your district since your cancidate can't be elected - You favor the major party in your district which holds a strong plurality, since you'll get the same number of representative votes for your party regardless of whether you personally cast a ballot. Germany and Italy have proportional representation in at least one legislative chamber. Under such a system, your vote always counts. Minority parties get a few candidates in, and a larger plurality by a big party nets more seats. very plausible hypothesis - so I couldn't help testing it with the 33 votes in the 2006 Senate elections. See the plots in the attached images. The first shows how voter turn out depends on margin of victory of the winner. In a deep red or deep blue state you would expect the margin to be high and in a purple state to be low. By hypothesis high margin would therefore mean low voter turn out. In fact you find negative correlation (see regression line) but it is a rather mild one. What seems to have a stronger effect on voter turn out is the size of the state (population of eligible voters). The second plot measures how the turn out depends on population is logarithmic scale. There is a notably stronger correlation. That is, turn out in smaller states is likely to be higher. Obviously in a small state a single vote for a senator counts more. People may consciously think that way and, as a result, feel stronger about voting. Or parties may see it as more cost effective to focus their "get out the vote" campaigns in smaller states. Fewer people and events to pay for for the same vote in the Senate. Also true that in Germany and other European countries the decision whether to vote or not was for a long time after the war considered equivalent to a decision for or against democracy and democratic process. People who didn't vote were suspect of being fascists or communists. More than two generation after the war this view has faded quite a bit though. So much for the causes. Not uninteresting also consequences of low voter turn out which is essentially what people like Rove thrive(d) on. The "get out the vote" campaigns, and "mobilizing the base" are virtually unknown campaign tactics in democracies with voter turn outs in the 80%-90% range. Simply because everyone is already "out" to vote and is already "mobilized" whether in the base or not. Preaching to the base is not anywhere as effective there as in a 40-50% turn out democracy as the US is. There is no big reservoir of 50-60% democratically lazy people to tab into. As a result the focus in much more on getting moderate swing voters rather than radicalizing you party to get some base out - at least for the big parties. Competition on the far ends arises in the form of small new parties which often either disappear as quickly as they the appeared, or they get absorbed into the main stream such as the green parties. In any case the likes of Rove would be quite lost on this turf. Cheers, T ******************************************************************* Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
