Islamic War?

[SpeedRacer 1]

It seems to me that the vast majority of the NON-Kurdish Iraqis do NOT want Iraq to be geographically partitioned into a Sunni section and a Shia section.

Right now many Iraqis are fleeing from violent gangs who are targeting one or the other, but Iraqis as a whole do not want seperate regions.

Speed Racer
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[Michele 1]

Hi, Jamile!

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I think this is simply fantasy. Its a nonsense. If you are getting your information from programmes like Obsession then I can understand why you fear that this might be the case but its a non starter.

Nope, that's not where I'm getting my information from - or shall I say, more honestly and accurately, not the sole source. I tend to see something, it piques my interest, and then I proceed to read about it quite a bit. Then I form an opinion, or hold a position. And that opinion and/or position is subject to change, as new information comes to the fore. I rarely rely on one source for anything.

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For a start although there are Islamic extremists who would love to see this happen they are massivly in the minority.

Perhaps they are in a minority; with 2.5 billion muslims in the world, even a small minority - say 10% - is 250 million people. That's a lot of extremists, you know? A lot. Even 5% is 175 million, and that's a lot of people - just about half of the population of the US. A lot of people. And some estimates I've read put it as high as 15-20% of muslims are extremists, although I don't know if they're accurate (thus the smaller percentage I am using above).

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The film has taken clips out of context and fused them together to produce a propergander scare film.

Not necessarily. While heavily edited, the film Obsession is not too far off; I've seen some scary, amazing tapes out there, detailing the same sort of thing. Those clips/tapes were not used (one, which I can't recall the name of, is a 15 minute video of a training camp...not the one where what'shisname is wearing tennis shoes, but another one...). I've seen video of children who dress like suicide bombers; people interviewing children about jews and christians, calling them "kuffir". I haven't even watched the complete Obsession film...but I see tapes and indications - and have read websites - which confirm that this "propaganda" is being spewed in the Arab worlds. That concerns me...

Additionally, consider the rioting over the Prophet's cartoon issue...the amazing vitriol and hatred for those who "dared" draw a cartoon of a person. The violence over a cartoon is startling, misplaced, and whipped into being by ummahs who do nothing more than drive the whole issue to a frenzy.

It is that sort of manipulation that brings me to the question in my poll...that sort of intrinsically disproportunate reaction to a cartoon, the inbred hatred of jews, and the fierce opposition to anything western which creates the very real potential for a clash.

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Islamic extremists are being fought against by Islamic countries all over the Muslim world. They can't even suceed in taking on a Muslim country on the scale that you're worrying about let alone go to war in a conventional manner against the west.(With maybe the exception of Afghanistan which is a failed state)

I'd include Iran in that, and perhaps the SAE. Some of the African states are being decimated, slowly but surely, and "converted on the point of a sword" to militant islam, city by city. I'm not sure that in the next 5 years we won't see something that is "country" based, similar to how AQ operated from Afghanistan in the late 90's-2002 or so.

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Also you make the mistake of lumping all Muslims (Or even all extremists togather) Islamic extremists have different goals and not that many of them are seriouly interested in a global take over of Islam. They are more interested in regional issues. ie:GIA in Algeria, Hamaz and Hezbollah in Israel and in the Lebanon.

I'm not trying to lump all Muslims together, Skyrad. Rather, I am trying to see the whole picture, the grand scheme of things. Sometimes, it might appear that I am lumping everyone together, but again, I go back to the above; 10% or so are extremists, and that 10% is fractioned into different groups. However, most groups will admit to admiring AQ, OBL, and model their organizations off AQ. They plan and plot like AQ. Is it a matter of time before they realize the only chance they might have to successfully attack would be to band together?

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There are also differet sects of Islam and of Islamic extremists. Just look at the secatarian war that is developing in Iraq between Muslims.

Recognized; once one side is determinate, what will happen with the direction? Will it go away, or will it become redirected? Not sure, frankly...

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The war between Iraq and Iran was a good example of the fractured nature of the extremists. Understanding of the issue has been muddied further by the President and the media using the generic term Al Quieda for Islamic extremist groups regardless of thier cause, belifes or motivation.

Agreed. However, perhaps I see this a bit differently than you. I see AQ as synonymous with islamic terrorists, and see them setting an example and raising a goal for others to go after. Consider the recent Israel/Lebanon conflict; there is very little doubt that Lebanon was backed by Syria...which is an example of the redirection I was mentioning above. Mutual support. Mutual aid. It's an odd situation, to be sure, and definitely unconventional, inasmuch as other "threats" we've faced in the West. However, to think it can't happen is the height of arrogance; it has happened. It will continue to happen. The only question is where, and how...not if anymore.

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Al Quieda doesn't exist in the form that is popularly touted, it is now more of an ideology. The Terrorist threat is real but it is just that, a Terrorist Threat. It needs to be countered by Intelligence led Policing operations and by use of Special Forces in Intelligence led operations. Not by Aircraft carriers and tanks on the streets.

Not sure I agree with you. Clinton chased AQ for years via the police method. The premise to effective policing is reasonable cause; because of that, Clinton did not take proactive action because policing is a reactive process - only once a crime has been committed can they act. So Clinton, in holding that position, missed opportunities to handle the problem because there wasn't enough "reasonable cause". That, imho, is the inherent difficulty in the policing/law enforcement angle.

At the time of this posting, 50% of the people who voted think it's at least somewhat likely that there will be an Islamic war. That's a lot of people.

It's interesting, to say the least, that so many folks believe that. My vote was somewhat likely, not very likely. There are friends I have who are certain that within 5 years there will be an armed conflict which will touch our lives on a daily basis. I'm not sure...but I think it's a bit more likely than not. One friend of mine thinks that a dirty bomb will be the instigation...another friend believes it will be some sort of repeat of 9/11 (perhaps not with planes, but that sort of ambush attack).

I can't see a significant conflict *not* happening without some significant changes, not in the US, but in the Muslim community itself. And I don't think that's going to happen.

It's interesting, to say the least.

Ciels-
Michele

~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

[billvon 3,121]

> It seems to me that the vast majority of the NON-Kurdish Iraqis do
>NOT want Iraq to be geographically partitioned into a Sunni section and a
>Shia section.

Right, but what the Iraqis want doesn't often enter into our planning. I mean, they don't want us there at all right now, but we continue to "stay the course."

[Skyrad 0]

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Personally I wonder how much they TRUELY are working with us...but behind the scenes that support is truely non existent because of what has gone on since early 2003.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061108/ap_on_re_as/pakistan_army_blast_10

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[Amazon 7]

Well it looks like the terrorists.. are not doing such a good job of staying in thier sanctuary...time will tell how the Pakistani's react...

[SpeedRacer 1]

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>Despite the good intentions and hard work of the troops, I also wonder if
>we just need to disengage until the Iraqi people decide they "really" want
>to live in a peaceful culture on their own.

Perhaps - but not a workable solution in today's political climate.

I'm thinking more and more that we pull all US troops into Bagdad, make the whole city a fortified "green zone." With 140,000 troops in Baghdad, it's likely that we'll be able to pacify at least most of it. That will give us our 'victory', give us the PNAC goal of a stable US-friendly government in the Middle East, and save a lot of US lives.

Outside Baghdad, some good and some bad. Kurdistan will do fine; it's doing fine now with minimal intervention, and they'd be happy to be on their own. The Sunni and Shi'a towns will likely see some "ethnic cleansing" but when that's over you'll have two (or three) regions where everyone is either Sunni or Shi'a. There will be intense fighting at the borders, but overall the larger cities will be more peaceful once the sectarian division is removed.

And if one of those cities asks us to come back? Then at least we're there because they wanted us there.

Iran will likely take over some parts of what is currently Iraq, but I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. Having Iran deal with this sort of violence would not be the end of the world.

At this point there are no good solutions, just compromises that are better than others.

One problem with this plan is that there are reconstruction and constructions projects going on all over Iraq, and some of the troops are necessary to support & protect these projects.

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[SkyDekker 1,465]

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One problem with this plan is that there are reconstruction and constructions projects going on all over Iraq, and some of the troops are necessary to support & protect these projects.

And American companies are making great money doing it. Wouldn't want their "lobby money" to got o waist.

[jcd11235 0]

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Wouldn't want their "lobby money" to got o waist.

Have you seen some of the fatties in Congress? the lobby money has definitely gone to waist, at least in some cases.

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