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kallend

Predicting the future is always difficult

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Straight up...win or lose and has anyone really thought of the long term consequences of losing?



I have asked this before in other threads, but no one has offered an answer. In your opinion, what would constitute winning and is it even possible to achieve whatever it is that constitutes winning this kind of war?

The Russians couldn't win in Afghanistan, the Americans failed Vietnam, the Rhodesians and the South Africans lost their respective bush wars. In every case, the losers were far superior in equipment and armaments, training, facilities etc.

The closest any nation has come to winning this kind of war was, in my opinion, when the British overcame the Boers. They accomplished this by following a scorched-earth policy, burning farms and destroying crops, killing cattle and horses, and the ultimate disgrace, confining the Boers' wives and children to concentration camps.

When will America know that it has won the war in Iraq?



When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.

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Achieving that would require some sort of intelligent political strategy. That is exactly what has been lacking from day 1 of this war.

Having the world's finest military is not an excuse for going to war with no strategy for the aftermath of the invasion.
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in a + or - 6 month frame :D
scissors beat paper, paper beat rock, rock beat wingsuit - KarlM

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>A few questions with regards to a Vietnam compare and contrast

Why, you are absolutely right! Some more differences:

-Iraq is hot and dry; Vietnam was hot and wet.



Actually the hot and wet was significant. The thick jungles of Vietnam were ideal cover for the guerrillas as they moved about South Vietnam. The US was so obsessed with it that we spent millions trying to defoliate them. I'm sure the Iraq planners were confident that there could be no such mobility in their case. Unfortunately, Iraq has proved that in a war where the insurgents are difficult to recognize, they can cause a lot of damage without sneaking around. It would be a lot harder to mount a full-scale offensive like the 1972 invasion though.

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When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.

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Thanks for a sensible reply.

Do you think there is a 'break-even' point - a point beyond which the cost in lives, money, goodwill, morale etc turns apparent victory into defeat?



Sure, there's alway that. I think that bar is set very high when it comes to Iraq because of the consequences of defeat. Something I think most "cut and runners" haven't thought through.

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www.ft.com/cms/s/5240e35e-5f99-11db-a011-0000779e2340.html

Perceptive people are able to see the similarity.



Gotta love the thinly veiled "you don't understand this like we do, so you're stupid" PA's....



It was only last month that you righties were denying that Iraq has become a quagmire.

You folks have been wrong since before day one of this war, in practically every respect. "They will greet us as liberators". Where are the flowers?
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When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.

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Thanks for a sensible reply.

Do you think there is a 'break-even' point - a point beyond which the cost in lives, money, goodwill, morale etc turns apparent victory into defeat?



Sure, there's alway that. I think that bar is set very high when it comes to Iraq because of the consequences of defeat. Something I think most "cut and runners" haven't thought through.

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The people who didn't think it through are the people that got us into the quagmire in the first place. Your heroes have an almost perfect track record of errors and mistakes, from the pre-war justifications, to the cost, to the size of the military force used, to the handling of the occupation, to the predictions of success. Where are the promised flowers?

The CinC has taken the world's finest military and placed it in a no-win situation that makes it look impotent. This will have negative repercussions for decades, just like Vietnam did.
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www.ft.com/cms/s/5240e35e-5f99-11db-a011-0000779e2340.html

Perceptive people are able to see the similarity.



Gotta love the thinly veiled "you don't understand this like we do, so you're stupid" PA's....



It was only last month that you righties were denying that Iraq has become a quagmire.

You folks have been wrong since before day one of this war, in practically every respect. "They will greet us as liberators". Where are the flowers?



And that has what to do with your post? Does your PHD give you the right to call everyone who disagrees with you, "stupid"?

When the shoe is on the other foot, however, it's a personal attack.

To wit:
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It is quite concerning though, that someone with your self professed smartness seems to have so much difficulty comprehending that lying while in court, during a deposition (mind you a sexual harrassment lawsuit), is not a crime.



How do you reach that conclusion from my post? It's logically absurd to reach that conclusion.

I also consider your post to be a PERSONAL ATTACK.


Mike
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www.ft.com/cms/s/5240e35e-5f99-11db-a011-0000779e2340.html

Perceptive people are able to see the similarity.



Gotta love the thinly veiled "you don't understand this like we do, so you're stupid" PA's....



It was only last month that you righties were denying that Iraq has become a quagmire.

You folks have been wrong since before day one of this war, in practically every respect. "They will greet us as liberators". Where are the flowers?



And that has what to do with your post? Does your PHD give you the right to call everyone who disagrees with you, "stupid"?

When the shoe is on the other foot, however, it's a personal attack.

To wit:
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It is quite concerning though, that someone with your self professed smartness seems to have so much difficulty comprehending that lying while in court, during a deposition (mind you a sexual harrassment lawsuit), is not a crime.



How do you reach that conclusion from my post? It's logically absurd to reach that conclusion.

I also consider your post to be a PERSONAL ATTACK.



You used the word "stupid", I didn't:P
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When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.



I don't buy this. If they democratically elect a very anti-american government, the US will not just go away and say "mission accomplished" (again).

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When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.



I don't buy this. If they democratically elect a very anti-american government, the US will not just go away and say "mission accomplished" (again).



Here's the "progress" he writes about:

34,000: The number of Iraqi physicians registered before the 2003 war.


18,000: The estimated number of Iraqi physicians who have left since the 2003 invasion.


2,000: The estimated number of Iraqi physicians murdered since 2003.


250: The number of Iraqi physicians kidnapped.


34: The number of reconstructive surgeons in Iraq before the 2003 invasion.


20: The number who have either been murdered of fled. 72 per cent of Iraqis needing reconstructive surgery are suffering from gunshot or blast wounds.


164: The number of nurses murdered - 77 wounded.


$243,000,000: The amount of money set aside by US administration to build 142 private health clinics in post-invasion Iraq.


20: The number of such clinics built by April 2006.


$0: The amount of money left over.


$1bn: The amount of money the US administration has spent on Iraq's healthcare system.


$8bn: The amount of money needed over the next 4 years to fund the health care system


70: the percentage of deaths among children caused by "easily treatable conditions" such as diarrhoea and respiratory illnesses.


270,000: The number of children born after 2003 who have had no immunisations.


68 per cent of Iraqis have no access to safe drinking water.

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Do you think the US will leave if a democratically elected government is ant-american? What if an alley to Iran is elected to run government?

If you don't then you originally stated "victory" is false.

What is the strategy to get to that point anyways? Does the US have a states strategy? Does the US have a plan at all?

How do you formulate a plan when you don't have an easily identifyable end-goal?

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Do you think the US will leave if a democratically elected government is ant-american? What if an alley to Iran is elected to run government?



Define anti-American.

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If you don't then you originally stated "victory" is false.



If I don't what?

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What is the strategy to get to that point anyways? Does the US have a states strategy? Does the US have a plan at all?



I think that strategy has been made very clear to those who have bothered to pay attention.

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How do you formulate a plan when you don't have an easily identifyable end-goal?



I've told you what my understanding of the end goal is. The plan is in place and is adjusted as needed. This is clear to those who pay attention. Those who don't just parrot the same regurgitated anti-war themes with no plan of their own. All they know is what they are against, not what they are for or not what they see as a positive step to securing a victory. In short, their plan is that the US lose the war because it will give them some weird self-serving egotistical satisfaction. Heck, I don't understand what motivates these types.

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Define anti-American



Lets just say the democratically elected government decides to immediately allign itself with Iran. Or adopts a Taliban style of government. Would the US call that a victory?

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I think that strategy has been made very clear to those who have bothered to pay attention.



That's the second time I get an evasive answer like that from sone one. Could you point me to a website that clearly spells it out. Preferable a US government website? Or, since you indicate you clearly know, can you explain it to me?

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I've told you what my understanding of the end goal is.



And I asked a question about that, which you have been evading so far.

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The plan is in place and is adjusted as needed. This is clear to those who pay attention. Those who don't just parrot the same regurgitated anti-war themes with no plan of their own. All they know is what they are against, not what they are for or not what they see as a positive step to securing a victory. In short, their plan is that the US lose the war because it will give them some weird self-serving egotistical satisfaction. Heck, I don't understand what motivates these types.



so the two options are:

1) You know
2) If you don't, you are clearly anti-american and unpatriotic.

Interesting view on things.

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Run out of schtick so you've resorted to reposting, I see. :D

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I've learned in 35 years as a teacher that some people need to be told several times before they "get it":P
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How do you formulate a plan when you don't have an easily identifyable end-goal?



I've told you what my understanding of the end goal is. The plan is in place and is adjusted as needed. This is clear to those who pay attention..



Those who pay attention are well aware that the goal has been adjusted as needed to fit with the plan.
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How do you formulate a plan when you don't have an easily identifyable end-goal?



I've told you what my understanding of the end goal is. The plan is in place and is adjusted as needed. This is clear to those who pay attention..



Those who pay attention are well aware that the goal has been adjusted as needed to fit with the plan.



Not in the context of this discussion. The plan was to overthrow Saddam and put a democratic govt. in place. I can repeat that in a few posts if you like. ;)

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How do you formulate a plan when you don't have an easily identifyable end-goal?



I've told you what my understanding of the end goal is. The plan is in place and is adjusted as needed. This is clear to those who pay attention..



Those who pay attention are well aware that the goal has been adjusted as needed to fit with the plan.



Not in the context of this discussion. The plan was to overthrow Saddam and put a democratic govt. in place. I can repeat that in a few posts if you like. ;)



Your context is too narrow. In the context of everything that has happened since Fall 2002 with respect to US foreign policy (sic, just being polite, you understand) my statement is 100% correct.
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How do you formulate a plan when you don't have an easily identifyable end-goal?



I've told you what my understanding of the end goal is. The plan is in place and is adjusted as needed. This is clear to those who pay attention..



Those who pay attention are well aware that the goal has been adjusted as needed to fit with the plan.



Not in the context of this discussion. The plan was to overthrow Saddam and put a democratic govt. in place. I can repeat that in a few posts if you like. ;)



Your context is too narrow. In the context of everything that has happened since Fall 2002 with respect to US foreign policy (sic, just being polite, you understand) my statement is 100% correct.



But, since you are responding to what I said to someone else, my context defines the parameters. Within those parameters, my statement is correct.

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How do you formulate a plan when you don't have an easily identifyable end-goal?



I've told you what my understanding of the end goal is. The plan is in place and is adjusted as needed. This is clear to those who pay attention..



Those who pay attention are well aware that the goal has been adjusted as needed to fit with the plan.



Not in the context of this discussion. The plan was to overthrow Saddam and put a democratic govt. in place. I can repeat that in a few posts if you like. ;)



Your context is too narrow. In the context of everything that has happened since Fall 2002 with respect to US foreign policy (sic, just being polite, you understand) my statement is 100% correct.



But, since you are responding to what I said to someone else, my context defines the parameters. Within those parameters, my statement is correct.

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Well, the Earth is flat if you define the observational parameters narrowly enough.:P
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How do you formulate a plan when you don't have an easily identifyable end-goal?



I've told you what my understanding of the end goal is. The plan is in place and is adjusted as needed. This is clear to those who pay attention..



Those who pay attention are well aware that the goal has been adjusted as needed to fit with the plan.



Not in the context of this discussion. The plan was to overthrow Saddam and put a democratic govt. in place. I can repeat that in a few posts if you like. ;)



Your context is too narrow. In the context of everything that has happened since Fall 2002 with respect to US foreign policy (sic, just being polite, you understand) my statement is 100% correct.



But, since you are responding to what I said to someone else, my context defines the parameters. Within those parameters, my statement is correct.

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Well, the Earth is flat if you define the observational parameters narrowly enough.:P



Aren't you doing exactly what you accuse Bush of? Redefining the argument to fit your outcome. :ph34r:

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Yep, best to ignore anything one might learn by comparing the two wars.



:DI don't think so, and neither do you. There are parallels that may be drawn between any two wars and much may be learned from them.

Nobody wanted to ponder such questions as I presented. Oh darn.

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Nobody wanted to ponder such questions as I presented. Oh darn.



That's okay. I have been asking the same question for weeks now and have gotten two pretty much identical responses.

Both said that those who paid attention knew, but when asked again, neither could actually explain. Wosn't a mundane question either, something prettu important and topical.....

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