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kallend

Predicting the future is always difficult

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Then:
www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=731123#731123;);)

Now:
commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/martin_kettle/2006/10/dont_mention_the_war_1.html
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?view=BLOGDETAIL&grid=P30&blog=yourview&xml=/news/2006/10/19/ublview19b.xml

If only Bush read SC he'd have known three years ago that Iraq would become like Vietnam.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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It is easier to predict the future when we know the past.

If you read a history book you would have been able to determine that Iraq would become like Vietnam. Guess not many people read history books (or even watch history shows). [:/]
"That looks dangerous." Leopold Stotch

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Ahh such a blast from the past...



It's funny to read what the Bush supporters were writing in 2003. Remember how our troops were going to be showered with flowers?

Sad, but funny.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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I never found it difficult, neither did you, Billvon or several others here.

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=197415#197415

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=771764#771764

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=463216#463216
When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

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Au contraire in some regards, my dear Kallend. A few questions for you on this subject:

What nation or entity is playing the role of COMINTERN with regards to Iraq?

The North Vietnamese had a capitol. What is the capital of the insurgent government?

Speaking of insurgent gov't, what is its structure? It's leaders?

Compare and contrast the bipolar cold war environs with those of today, please.

How are US budgetary constraints today similar to those of the Vietnam Era?

What religious disparaties existed among the indigenous Vietnamese?

A few questions with regards to a Vietnam compare and contrast you might wish to ponder.

:S
Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

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>A few questions with regards to a Vietnam compare and contrast

Why, you are absolutely right! Some more differences:

-Iraq is hot and dry; Vietnam was hot and wet.
-The Vietnam war was in the 20th century; the Iraq was in the 21st.
-Iraqis look nothing like Vietnamese.

Yep, best to ignore anything one might learn by comparing the two wars.

Now, compare Iraq to World War II - now, those two are EXACTLY the same.

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A few questions with regards to a Vietnam compare and contrast you might wish to ponder.



Nevermind dude. The President didn't even make a comparison to Vietnam. He only acknowledged the speculation made by Thomas Friedman of the NYT, by comparing the upsurge of violence during Ramadan (also on the eve of an election...hmmm).

By simply acknowledging the observation of another, the media has been having an orgasm of epic proportions by screaming, "It's Vietnam! It's Vietnam!"

Now, all of the sudden, it's the turning point. Where's Cronkite? :S
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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The only similarities between Iraq and Vietnam is the enemy is using the tactics they learned from Vietnam about how to use the press and the Lefties against the President. Except then it was Johnson, who declined to run for a second term.

Crank up the violence right before the elections and the lefties will get scared and want to pull out. Same tactic as the Viet Cong used with the Tet Offensive. The left bought it then and are buying it again, now

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Crank up the violence right before the elections and the lefties will get scared and want to pull out. Same tactic as the Viet Cong used with the Tet Offensive. The left bought it then and are buying it again, now



They're buying it wholesale. Even in the article noted above: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/5240e35e-5f99-11db-a011-0000779e2340.html
---they're saying
Quote

Mr Bush on Wednesday made a comparison between Iraq and the Vietnam War when he said Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist, “could be right” in writing that the violent situation in Iraq was the “jihadist equivalent” of the Tet offensive



So, again, for all that are enjoying the ride, acknowledging one's comparison is not the same as making it, or agreeing with it or even advocating it.

Seeing similarities in tactics does not equate the prosecution of the conflict.
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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I'd go a bit further and call them misguided and naive.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0ac7f41a-5f60-11db-a011-0000779e2340,dwp_uuid=f889daf8-3916-11db-a21d-0000779e2340.html

My question is, does the left want the US to succeed or fail in Iraq? Straight up...win or lose and has anyone really thought of the long term consequences of losing? How would losing affect the treaties and promises we have made to countries like Japan? Would the Japanese decide the US is an unreliable ally and feel they needed to arm themselves with nukes? How would China react to that? Etc..etc....:S

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Crank up the violence right before the elections and the lefties will get scared and want to pull out. Same tactic as the Viet Cong used with the Tet Offensive. The left bought it then and are buying it again, now



Do you -seriously- believe the insurgents give a rats ass about the -mid-term elections and are timing their attacks on their own people based on that?

Who is filling your head with such ridiculous ideas?
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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Crank up the violence right before the elections and the lefties will get scared and want to pull out. Same tactic as the Viet Cong used with the Tet Offensive. The left bought it then and are buying it again, now



Do you -seriously- believe the insurgents give a rats ass about the -mid-term elections and are timing their attacks on their own people based on that?

Who is filling your head with such ridiculous ideas?



I believe he is self taught. ;)
-----------------------
"O brave new world that has such people in it".

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Crank up the violence right before the elections and the lefties will get scared and want to pull out. Same tactic as the Viet Cong used with the Tet Offensive. The left bought it then and are buying it again, now



Do you -seriously- believe the insurgents give a rats ass about the -mid-term elections and are timing their attacks on their own people based on that?

Who is filling your head with such ridiculous ideas?



Do you actually believe they aren't? Do you believe, the insurgents are all just a bunch of dumbass Arabs with no knowledge of military history and the inability to wage strategic warfare? I guess next you will be trying to convince us that's not what the Viet Cong were trying to do with the Tet Offensive also? The N. Vietnamese knew they could not defeat the US military so they chose to defeat the US politically by using the press as a propoganda tool. Americans grew weary of the constant images of dead and wounded soldier on TV every night and the will to win was broken. It was a brilliant master strategy by the N. Vietnamese to use the press and the bleeding heart left as a tool and it worked.

Quote

"We were not strong enough to drive out a half-million American troops, but that wasn't our aim. Our intention was to break the will of the American government to continue the war."

--North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap, in a 1990 interview with historian Stanley Karnow.



Why do you find it so inconceivable the insurgents aren't employing the same strategy?

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Let's tell the future
Let's see how it's been done.
By numbers. By mirrors. By water.
By dots made at random on paper.

By salt. By dice.
By meal. By mice.
By dough of cakes.
By sacrificial fire.

By fountains. By fishes.
Writing in ashes.
Birds. Herbs.
Smoke from the altar.

A suspended ring or the mode of laughing
Pebbles drawn from a heap
One of these things
Will tell you something.

Let's tell the future
Let's see how it's been done.
By dreams. By the features. By letters.
By dropping hot was into water.

By nails reflecting the rays of the sun.
By waling in a circle.
By red hot iron.
By passages in books.
A balanced hatchet.

A suspended ring or the mode of laughing
Pebbles drawn from a heap
One of these things
Will tell you something.

Let's tell the future
Let's see how it's been done.
How it's been done.

mh
"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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Straight up...win or lose and has anyone really thought of the long term consequences of losing?



I have asked this before in other threads, but no one has offered an answer. In your opinion, what would constitute winning and is it even possible to achieve whatever it is that constitutes winning this kind of war?

The Russians couldn't win in Afghanistan, the Americans failed Vietnam, the Rhodesians and the South Africans lost their respective bush wars. In every case, the losers were far superior in equipment and armaments, training, facilities etc.

The closest any nation has come to winning this kind of war was, in my opinion, when the British overcame the Boers. They accomplished this by following a scorched-earth policy, burning farms and destroying crops, killing cattle and horses, and the ultimate disgrace, confining the Boers' wives and children to concentration camps.

When will America know that it has won the war in Iraq?



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Straight up...win or lose and has anyone really thought of the long term consequences of losing?



I have asked this before in other threads, but no one has offered an answer. In your opinion, what would constitute winning and is it even possible to achieve whatever it is that constitutes winning this kind of war?

The Russians couldn't win in Afghanistan, the Americans failed Vietnam, the Rhodesians and the South Africans lost their respective bush wars. In every case, the losers were far superior in equipment and armaments, training, facilities etc.

The closest any nation has come to winning this kind of war was, in my opinion, when the British overcame the Boers. They accomplished this by following a scorched-earth policy, burning farms and destroying crops, killing cattle and horses, and the ultimate disgrace, confining the Boers' wives and children to concentration camps.

When will America know that it has won the war in Iraq?



When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.

-

-

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When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.


I truly hope you are right, but am a lot less optimistic. I would tend to believe that in the case of Iraq, democracy is not feasible as a viable political system, and that forcing it upon them is not helping the case. There are too many minorities with conflicting agendas, and establishing a democracy would be a typical case of the dictatorship of the dominant group. Iraq is a country, but hardly a nation. It was drawn on a flat map, encompassing different ethnies which never had much intention to associate themselves with others.
The intervention in Iraq, in my opinion, was a typical case of mis-diagnosis by some. Trying to cure a disease by using the wrongs means. Much like trying to treat herpes with chemotherapy. Sometimes, containment is more fruitful than surgery.

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

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When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.


I truly hope you are right, but am a lot less optimistic. I would tend to believe that in the case of Iraq, democracy is not feasible as a viable political system, and that forcing it upon them is not helping the case. There are too many minorities with conflicting agendas, and establishing a democracy would be a typical case of the dictatorship of the dominant group. Iraq is a country, but hardly a nation. It was drawn on a flat map, encompassing different ethnies which never had much intention to associate themselves with others.
The intervention in Iraq, in my opinion, was a typical case of mis-diagnosis by some. Trying to cure a disease by using the wrongs means. Much like trying to treat herpes with chemotherapy. Sometimes, containment is more fruitful than surgery.



Perhaps. It may also be that the best solution is to divide Iraq into states governed by a central govt. much the same way the US is structured. This would give the warring factions an equal say in how the country is governed and also allow all to share in Iraq's oil wealth and other resources. only time will tell. I do think the worst possible outcome would be withdrawl, leaving the insurgency to undertake a Coup d'etat and leave them in control of $Billions in oil revenues.

-

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I wholeheartedly agree that the future of what we know as Iraq goes through at least a federated state, if not some kind of partition into sovereign states (which I don't see happening, at least not in the near future). Whether democracy is the best regime for them though, is still to be determined. And yes, bailing out would not make things go any better in the short term. But it may be a good idea to learn from this event, so as not to step into the exact same situation when the next opportunity to screw up arises.

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

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When Iraq has a democratic govt. that can provide reasonable security for it's people without the assistance of the US. That's the goal Bush is working towards. It's slow going and there are always set backs, but we are making progress and i believe we will achieve our goals.

-



Thanks for a sensible reply.

Do you think there is a 'break-even' point - a point beyond which the cost in lives, money, goodwill, morale etc turns apparent victory into defeat?



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