"The next six months . . ."

[billvon 3,132]

Something in another post made me think of the "six month" thing. For some reason, most predictions/promises about Iraq are made in a six-month timeframe. Perhaps it's close enough to seem to be in the near future, but far enough away that it can safely be forgotten if it doesn't come to pass. Take just one pundit on the subject, Tom Friedman:


"The next six months in Iraq—which will determine the prospects for democracy-building there—are the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy in a long, long time."
(11/30/03)


"What I absolutely don't understand is just at the moment when we finally have a UN-approved Iraqi-caretaker government made up of—I know a lot of these guys—reasonably decent people and more than reasonably decent people, everyone wants to declare it's over. I don't get it. It might be over in a week, it might be over in a month, it might be over in six months, but what's the rush? Can we let this play out, please?"
(6/3/04)


"What we're gonna find out, Bob, in the next six to nine months is whether we have liberated a country or uncorked a civil war."
(10/3/04)


"Improv time is over. This is crunch time. Iraq will be won or lost in the next few months. But it won't be won with high rhetoric. It will be won on the ground in a war over the last mile."
(11/28/04)


"I think we're in the end game now…. I think we're in a six-month window here where it's going to become very clear and this is all going to pre-empt I think the next congressional election—that's my own feeling— let alone the presidential one."
(9/25/05)


"Maybe the cynical Europeans were right. Maybe this neighborhood is just beyond transformation. That will become clear in the next few months as we see just what kind of minority the Sunnis in Iraq intend to be. If they come around, a decent outcome in Iraq is still possible, and we should stay to help build it. If they won't, then we are wasting our time."
(9/28/05)


"We've teed up this situation for Iraqis, and I think the next six months really are going to determine whether this country is going to collapse into three parts or more or whether it's going to come together."
(12/18/05)


"We're at the beginning of I think the decisive I would say six months in Iraq, OK, because I feel like this election—you know, I felt from the beginning Iraq was going to be ultimately, Charlie, what Iraqis make of it."
(12/20/05)


"The only thing I am certain of is that in the wake of this election, Iraq will be what Iraqis make of it—and the next six months will tell us a lot. I remain guardedly hopeful."
(12/21/05)


"I think that we're going to know after six to nine months whether this project has any chance of succeeding. In which case, I think the American people as a whole will want to play it out or whether it really is a fool's errand."
(1/23/06)


"I think we're in the end game there, in the next three to six months, Bob. We've got for the first time an Iraqi government elected on the basis of an Iraqi constitution. Either they're going to produce the kind of inclusive consensual government that we aspire to in the near term, in which case America will stick with it, or they're not, in which case I think the bottom's going to fall out."
(1/31/06)


"I think we are in the end game. The next six to nine months are going to tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq."
(3/2/06)


"Can Iraqis get this government together? If they do, I think the American public will continue to want to support the effort there to try to produce a decent, stable Iraq. But if they don't, then I think the bottom is going to fall out of public support here for the whole Iraq endeavor. So one way or another, I think we're in the end game in the sense it's going to be decided in the next weeks or months whether there's an Iraq there worth investing in. And that is something only Iraqis can tell us."
(CNN, 4/23/06)


"Well, I think that we're going to find out, Chris, in the next year to six months—probably sooner—whether a decent outcome is possible there, and I think we're going to have to just let this play out."
(MSNBC's Hardball, 5/11/06)

-----------------------------------------------

A few other six-monthers chime in:

"This is a decisive period for everyone and everyone knows it. The next six months will determine the future of Iraq." - Tony Blair, 1/6/04

"The next six months will be very critical. Not just the constitution writing, referendum, the election, but also within that six months' period we are going to see whether the Iraqis are really going to be capable of defending themselves." - Chuck Hagel, August 2005

"The next six months are going to tell the story." - Joe Biden, Dec 2005

"This is a decisive period for everyone and everyone knows it. The next six months will determine the future of Iraq" - Gen George Casey, 10/8/06

"The next six months will be critical in terms of reining in the danger of civil war. If the government fails to achieve this, it will have lost its opportunity." - Zalmay Khalilzad, 6/7/06

[Tonto 1]

Good post Bill. The next six months will tell us if you're right or not.
t

It's the year of the Pig.

[jakee 1,610]

I like the way that these two fit together

***"I think we're in the end game there, in the next three to six months, Bob. We've got for the first time an Iraqi government elected on the basis of an Iraqi constitution. Either they're going to produce the kind of inclusive consensual government that we aspire to in the near term, in which case America will stick with it, or they're not, in which case I think the bottom's going to fall out."
(1/31/06)


"I think we are in the end game. The next six to nine months are going to tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq."
(3/2/06)

Quote

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

• Quote

[steveorino 7]

Just goes to show NO ONE holds NO ONE accountable anymore. Everything said in DC is just a sound bite regardless of party. I'm sick of it!

steveOrino

[idrankwhat 0]

There certainly seems to be a pattern here. It's got me wondering, exactly how long do "last throes" last? Hmmmm....wait a minute.....I think Rummy gave us a clue here. He said "It is unknowable how long that conflict will last. It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months."
Six...Six...Six.........mmmmmwwwwwaaaaaaahahahahahahhahaaa!!!!

[freethefly 6]

Quote

There certainly seems to be a pattern here. It's got me wondering, exactly how long do "last throes" last? Hmmmm....wait a minute.....I think Rummy gave us a clue here. He said "It is unknowable how long that conflict will last. It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months."
Six...Six...Six.........mmmmmwwwwwaaaaaaahahahahahahhahaaa!!!!

Has anyone checked Rumsfelds scalp yet for the mark of the beast?

"...And once you're gone, you can't come back
When you're out of the blue and into the black."
Neil Young

[billvon 3,132]

>"I think we're in the end game there, in the next three to six months, Bob." (1/31/06)
>"The next six to nine months are going to tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq." (3/2/06)

Update! The inestimable Mr. Friedman has a NEW estimate!

"Given this, we need to face our real choices in Iraq, which are: 10 months or 10 years. Either we just get out of Iraq in a phased withdrawal over 10 months, and try to stabilize it some other way, or we accept the fact that the only way it will not be a failed state is if we start over and rebuild it from the ground up, which would take 10 years. This would require reinvading Iraq, with at least 150,000 more troops, crushing the Sunni and Shiite militias, controlling borders, and building Iraq's institutions and political culture from scratch . . . If we're not ready to do what is necessary to crush the dark forces in Iraq and properly rebuild it, then we need to leave."

So in Jan it was 3-6 months. In March it was 6-9 months. Now it's 10 months. Any predictions for when he will hit 12 months?

And dark forces . . . first I've heard of that. Why didn't we realize that three years ago? A few Jedis and we'd have this thing licked.

[livetofall 0]

sure glad i didnt invest in the Dinar

www.911missinglinks.com the definitive truth of 9/11..the who and why, not how

You can handle the TRUTH www.theforbiddentruth.net

[StreetScooby 5]

Quote

A few Jedis and we'd have this thing licked.

Sounds like an Air Force project...

We are all engines of karma

[jakee 1,610]

Quote

>"I think we're in the end game there, in the next three to six months, Bob." (1/31/06)
>"The next six to nine months are going to tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq." (3/2/06)

Update! The inestimable Mr. Friedman has a NEW estimate!

"Given this, we need to face our real choices in Iraq, which are: 10 months or 10 years. Either we just get out of Iraq in a phased withdrawal over 10 months, and try to stabilize it some other way, or we accept the fact that the only way it will not be a failed state is if we start over and rebuild it from the ground up, which would take 10 years. This would require reinvading Iraq, with at least 150,000 more troops, crushing the Sunni and Shiite militias, controlling borders, and building Iraq's institutions and political culture from scratch . . . If we're not ready to do what is necessary to crush the dark forces in Iraq and properly rebuild it, then we need to leave."

So in Jan it was 3-6 months. In March it was 6-9 months. Now it's 10 months. Any predictions for when he will hit 12 months?

Actually I think he's on schedule for once. Its a shade under 9 months from the 2nd of March and he's decided that we can't produce a decent outcome! It seems now that 10 months is what it'll take to bodge it just enough to be able to leave.

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[Andy9o8 3]

Quote

Update! The inestimable Mr. Friedman has a NEW estimate!

I like Tom Friedman's writing a lot; but let's face it: he's basically earned his living over the past 4 years by being a pundit on Iraq. So why does he keep extending the "deadline"? Hmm.

It reminds me of the joke:

Doctor: You've got 3 months to live. Oh - on your way out, give the girl your new insurance information - you've racked up quite a bill with us

Patient: My insurance company dropped me. I can't possibly pay this all at once.

Doctor: Fine – I'll give you another 3 months.

[kallend 2,182]

Quote

>"I think we're in the end game there, in the next three to six months, Bob." (1/31/06)
>"The next six to nine months are going to tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq." (3/2/06)

Update! The inestimable Mr. Friedman has a NEW estimate!

"Given this, we need to face our real choices in Iraq, which are: 10 months or 10 years. Either we just get out of Iraq in a phased withdrawal over 10 months, and try to stabilize it some other way, or we accept the fact that the only way it will not be a failed state is if we start over and rebuild it from the ground up, which would take 10 years. This would require reinvading Iraq, with at least 150,000 more troops, crushing the Sunni and Shiite militias, controlling borders, and building Iraq's institutions and political culture from scratch . . . If we're not ready to do what is necessary to crush the dark forces in Iraq and properly rebuild it, then we need to leave."

So in Jan it was 3-6 months. In March it was 6-9 months. Now it's 10 months. Any predictions for when he will hit 12 months?

And dark forces . . . first I've heard of that. Why didn't we realize that three years ago? A few Jedis and we'd have this thing licked.

looks like a logarithmic time series to me.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[billvon 3,132]

Today's six-monther (seven, actually) comes from none other than the Iraqi Prime Minister himself:

--------------
Maliki: Iraqis could assume security by June 2007
By Reuters
November 30, 2006

WASHINGTON --Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said Thursday that his country's forces would be able to assume security command by June 2007 -- which could allow the United States to start withdrawing its troops.

Maliki was replying to a question about whether U.S. troops could start withdrawing at that time. ABC released a transcript of the interview ahead of its broadcast later on Thursday.
--------------