North Korea Says It Will Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test

[Gawain 0]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061003/ts_nm/korea_north_nuclear_dc
I love this quote:

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"The U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war and sanctions and pressure compel the DPRK (North Korea) to conduct a nuclear test, an essential process for bolstering nuclear deterrent, as a corresponding measure for defense," the statement said.

But it added that North Korea would never use nuclear weapons first and would "do its utmost to realize the denuclearization of the peninsula and give impetus to the worldwide nuclear disarmament and the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons."

We hate nukes and want our land to be free of them, please excuse me while I push the button.

How should the US respond? How should ROK and Japan respond? How should China respond? How should the world respond?

Personally, I believe this would force China to get off the fence and pick a side, once an for all. They like having a buffer their south between them and South Korea. They don't like the idea of a destabilized DPRK as they don't want the refugees, nor do they want the possibility of a unified, "free", Korean peninsula.

A response not involving direct action would seem weak, in my opinion. Thus the importance of really knowing where China stands.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Frenchy68 0]

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Personally, I believe this would force China to get off the fence and pick a side, once an for all.

Not quite sure it would be good for anyone. China has access to the DPRK's leadership, and the US and Europe et al need this.

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They don't like the idea of a destabilized DPRK as they don't want the refugees

You're definitely right.

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nor do they want the possibility of a unified, "free", Korean peninsula.

I think actually China wouldn't care much. They would benefit from a wealthier North Korea much more than they do with the current situation. China is about as close to the DPRK ideologically as is the US. Which means pretty damn far...

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Thus the importance of really knowing where China stands.

If China can prevent it, it will. I thnk they would be as pissed off as anyone else if the DPRK has nuclear power.

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

[Andy9o8 3]

I know many Righties hate Clinton, but during that round of interview shows he recently did, when asked about what might happen if Iran used a nuke against anyone in anger, he said, very bluntly: "Their very best day would be the day before they did that."

I'm sure every past, and the current, POTUS agrees with that 100%.

Hopefully the leadership of N. Korea realizes that the same applies to them.

[Gawain 0]

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China is about as close to the DPRK ideologically as is the US. Which means pretty damn far...

Here we disagree. China, despite its market reforms, is an authoritarian communist state. Its currency is tightly controlled, as is information control.

Let us not forget Tiananmen Square. PRC is not benevolent in this.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Gawain 0]

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I know many Righties hate Clinton, but during that round of interview shows he recently did, when asked about what might happen if Iran used a nuke against anyone in anger, he said, very bluntly: "Their very best day would be the day before they did that."

I'm sure every past, and the current, POTUS agrees with that 100%.

Hopefully the leadership of N. Korea realizes that the same applies to them.

Indeed, I don't think there is any doubt in the world as to the US resolve to use such weapons.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[BillyVance 35]

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I know many Righties hate Clinton, but during that round of interview shows he recently did, when asked about what might happen if Iran used a nuke against anyone in anger, he said, very bluntly: "Their very best day would be the day before they did that."

I'm sure every past, and the current, POTUS agrees with that 100%.

Hopefully the leadership of N. Korea realizes that the same applies to them.

Indeed, I don't think there is any doubt in the world as to the US resolve to use such weapons.

Not so sure about that. While we are the only nation in history to use nukes in warfare (1945 against Japan), we decided it was better than sacrificing maybe a few hundred thousand more US troops in an invasion of the Japanese home islands.

Moreover, I don't think North Korea has the capability to even build a nuclear bomb small enough to put on a missile, and they can't launch any of their long-range missiles successfully (so far).

However, if they want to contaminate their own land with a nuke test, let them. They'll only be digging their own graves. Who knows, the bomb might blow prematurely and kill all of their nuke scientists, and then they are dead in the water.

All that notwithstanding, they have enough of a military capability that they will attack and destroy South Korea to the best of their ability and they won't care if they get destroyed themselves, so we've got to be careful.

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[Gawain 0]

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Moreover, I don't think North Korea has the capability to even build a nuclear bomb small enough to put on a missile, and they can't launch any of their long-range missiles successfully (so far).

I don't know the answer to that, but if I were Japan, I wouldn't be assuming a best-case scenario.

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All that notwithstanding, they have enough of a military capability that they will attack and destroy South Korea to the best of their ability and they won't care if they get destroyed themselves, so we've got to be careful.

That's assuming that they'd walk all over the ROK and US army positions (they wouldn't). There are many assessments that DPRK may be able to start, but not sustain an assault for any significant length of time...not that I want to find that out either.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[ryoder 1,590]

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How should the US respond?

They shouldn't. Leaders of every belligerent state including Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, etc, have learned that every time they rattle their sabres, (even if the sabres are non-existent), Washington will get it's panties in a wad and throw shit-fits. So by doing nothing but empty rhetoric, these tin-horn wannabes look like they are standing up to the US, and therefore make themselves look more powerful in the eyes of the world.

"Speak softly and carry a big stick" is still a good principle.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[BillyVance 35]

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How should the US respond?

They shouldn't. Leaders of every belligerent state including Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, etc, have learned that every time they rattle their sabres, (even if the sabres are non-existent), Washington will get it's panties in a wad and throw shit-fits. So by doing nothing but empty rhetoric, these tin-horn wannabes look like they are standing up to the US, and therefore make themselves look more powerful in the eyes of the world.

"Speak softly and carry a big stick" is still a good principle.

I wonder what kind of reaction North Korea would have if China's premier scolded them in an annoyed state with "Would you shut the fuck up and sit down, or we'll beat your ass with a stick?!?"

wishful thinking, I know...

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[ryoder 1,590]

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[
I wonder what kind of reaction North Korea would have if China's premier scolded them in an annoyed state with "Would you shut the fuck up and sit down, or we'll beat your ass with a stick?!?"

If NK actually tested a nuke, it would be a far bigger problem for China than for the US. I suspect China already has plans to squash that nitwit like a bug if necessary. Likely part of the reason they haven't already done so is because it is just so entertaining for them to watch Washington constantly over-reacting to that little clown.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[Amazon 7]

DPRK has almost zero resources...

They should be quite safe from other nations.

[sundevil777 102]

What should we do?

Maybe nothing. Maybe promise to destroy their test site with cruise missles if we think they are close to doing their test.

Maybe send Jesse Jackson and Jimmy Carter.

Maybe get him a role in a Hollywood movie, that might make him happy, if he had a singing part!

Team America, fuck yeah, coming again to save the mother fucking day yeah!

People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am

[StreetScooby 5]

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How should the US respond?

My take on this is Sir Jong is not getting media attention right now. The Iranian guy's getting all of the attention. He's set the stage. Let's see if he walks the walk. God help him if he does...

We are all engines of karma

[BillyVance 35]

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Maybe get him a role in a Hollywood movie, that might make him happy, if he had a singing part!

Team America, fuck yeah, coming again to save the mother fucking day yeah!

Or.... "I'm so ronely..."

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[Michele 1]

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My take on this is Sir Jong is not getting media attention right now. The Iranian guy's getting all of the attention. He's set the stage. Let's see if he walks the walk. God help him if he does...

Bingo...I think that's what's going on.

I'm really bad at predictions, but I'm thinking that it will go off (if it's there to go off) on or about Election Tuesday...failing that, at Thanksgiving.

Gonna get interesting...and I'm sincerely hoping they don't decide to sell a nuke to one of the terrorist groups hanging around; that would be a serious, serious problem.

Ciels-
Michele

~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

[Gawain 0]

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My take on this is Sir Jong is not getting media attention right now. The Iranian guy's getting all of the attention. He's set the stage. Let's see if he walks the walk. God help him if he does...

Bingo...I think that's what's going on.

I'm really bad at predictions, but I'm thinking that it will go off (if it's there to go off) on or about Election Tuesday...failing that, at Thanksgiving.

Gonna get interesting...and I'm sincerely hoping they don't decide to sell a nuke to one of the terrorist groups hanging around; that would be a serious, serious problem.

The thing is though, that they do tend to do what they say, and some things they don't, like the missile tests this past July.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[kallend 2,182]

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Gonna get interesting...and I'm sincerely hoping they don't decide to sell a nuke to one of the terrorist groups hanging around; that would be a serious, serious problem.

Ciels-
Michele

They already did, to this guy.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[nathaniel 0]

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Its currency is tightly controlled

Hah, that's backwards. If you mean China's currency is controlled by foreign states then OK.

China basically links its currency to foreign currency. Fluctuations in value are thus driven by foreign currency policy. Which due to various economic factors results in friction that, due to the way that China's economy has been performing, has acted as a subsidy to local Chinese businesses recently. But the effect in the long run will be costlier to maintain than to abandon.

To say that the Chinese gov't "controls" the currency is inaccurate. China has an on/off switch for their present currency snafu, and the off switch would be to actually start to exert traditional monetarist controls on their currency. Which the Communist party is gradually starting to do, but just gradually for now.

My advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir. The bums will always lose. Do you hear me, Lebowski?

[Gawain 0]

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Hah, that's backwards. If you mean China's currency is controlled by foreign states then OK

Sorry dude, you're wrong. China "pegs" its currency directly to the US Dollar. On the "free" market, the yuan would actually fall at least 26%.

Congress has been mulling over a 27.5% tariff on Chinese goods. China is still considered a "nonmarket" economy in that respect.

China literally distorts the world market by these currency controls.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nathaniel 0]

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China "pegs" its currency directly to the US Dollar.

Go ahead and read what you wrote. It means that when the dollar goes up in real value, so does the yuan. (It so happens they changed this year from pegging to the dollar to a formula that's not much different but allows a little play) The only "control" China exerts is to let fluctuations in other currencies determine theirs. In effect, China's currency is floating on a formula determined by foreign currency policies. The problem is that China's economy is growing very rapidly and their currency needs to adjust to reflect this.

IOW China's currency is not "tightly controlled" except in nominal terms. In real terms it's uncontrolled and loosely manipulated by pegging to foreign currency due to the fact that China's economy is growing (which, in turn, was caused by increasing deregulation since the 70s). Nominal terms being useless.

edited for grammar

My advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir. The bums will always lose. Do you hear me, Lebowski?

[billvon 3,132]

>>Hah, that's backwards. If you mean China's currency is controlled by foreign states then OK

>Sorry dude, you're wrong. China "pegs" its currency directly to the US Dollar.

?? That's what he just said. China's currency is controlled by the dollar.

[Gawain 0]

Okay, now I'll say, "read what you wrote".

I'm saying China's Yuan is pegged, you're saying it floats. The US currency is not regulated by anything other than the market environment.

China does not allow a free market exchange of its currency. For all intents and purposes it manipulates the value of the Yuan versus the dollar for competitive gain. This gives China an artificial "discount" of about 25-30%. In July 2005, China revalued the Yuan by a mere 2% against the dollar and added a "reference" basket of other currencies. That's why it's so "cheap" to outsource manufacturing to China.

If China were to actually allow market forces to value its currency, the exchange rate would fall from the current 1.00 USD = 7.90 CNY to about 1.00 = 5.50. That's huge, and suddenly, China's economy isn't so rosy is it.

If we really had a control over the value of the Yuan, we wouldn't have a tariff ready to roll in Congress.

Here's some stuff I referenced:
http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/pm116
www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32165.pdf

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nathaniel 0]

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I'm saying China's Yuan is pegged

nominally

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you're saying it floats

in real value based on foreign currency.

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China does not allow a free market exchange of its currency.

China cannot stop the world market. They cannot prevent you from buying yuan from me. All they can do is buy or sell yuan themselves.

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For all intents and purposes it manipulates the value of the Yuan

Yep. Manipulates by failing to establish proper controls tho, not manipulates by actually manipulating the market.

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versus the dollar for competitive gain.

Versus a formula that is not too far off from the dollar.

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If China were to actually allow market forces to value its currency

Modern central banks use monetary (ie currency) policy to shape market forces, not vice versa. All that stuff you tune out about the Federal Reserve changing interest rates is express market manipulation (if indirect), and it's done for the common good of each country's (or administrative domain's, since some currencies like the Euro span countries) interest subject to fair trade agreements.

The issue with China is that by failing to control their currency they are essentially trading unfairly.

The fair, or neutral position for currency is actually active manipulation by a central bank.

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If we really had a control over the value of the Yuan, we wouldn't have a tariff ready to roll in Congress.

You wrote it yourself, it's pegged to the dollar. Rather, a formula that's close to the dollar. The problem is when Bernanke and the Fed control the dollar they simultaneously control the yuan, and vice versa. China has no control, and Bernanke has all the control, just he doesn't want to exert it because it would tank both economies.

My advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir. The bums will always lose. Do you hear me, Lebowski?

[Gawain 0]

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China does not allow a free market exchange of its currency.

China cannot stop the world market. They cannot prevent you from buying yuan from me. All they can do is buy or sell yuan themselves.

Let me clarify -- the market cannot determine its own valuation of the Yuan. It is always 7.90:1.00. Whereas, the Japanese Yen is 119.00:1.00, and tomorrow, that will change. I'm not saying the Yuan isn't on the market, I'm saying its value is not based on the Chinese economy. It is forced by Chinese economic controls.

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For all intents and purposes it manipulates the value of the Yuan

Yep. Manipulates by failing to establish proper controls tho, not manipulates by actually manipulating the market.

Incorrect. This is not a "failing" of China, it is a deliberate policy to artificially deflate Yuan valuation, keeping Sino-based services attrative for direct foreign investment.

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If China were to actually allow market forces to value its currency

Modern central banks use monetary (ie currency) policy to shape market forces, not vice versa. All that stuff you tune out about the Federal Reserve changing interest rates is express market manipulation (if indirect), and it's done for the common good of each country's (or administrative domain's, since some currencies like the Euro span countries) interest subject to fair trade agreements.

My comment about "market forces" was meant in the context of a nation's treasury's monetary policy.

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The issue with China is that by failing to control their currency they are essentially trading unfairly.

You're saying it's a Chinese "failure" to control the currency, I'm saying this is not a failure, it is deliberate Chinese action that makes this so.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nathaniel 0]

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Let me clarify -- the market cannot determine its own valuation of the Yuan. It is always 7.90:1.00.

The word nominal is what you don't understand. The nominal value of the yuan is pegged at the dollar. The nominal value has no other meaning. The dollar is not a fixed quantity. It goes up and down, mainly down, in real value (aka inflation).

The value of one dollar floats on a market that the Fed interferes with on a regular basis.
7.9 yuan == 1 dollar
Remember algebraic substitution?
The value of 7.9 yuan floats on a market that the Fed interferes with on a regular basis.

You've also failed to grasp that the strict peg has been removed in favor of a formula, which is not too far off from a strict peg.

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You're saying it's a Chinese "failure" to control the currency, I'm saying this is not a failure, it is deliberate Chinese action that makes this so.

Their "deliberate action" is failure to exert any control over their currency, and instead to hand over control of their currency to other central banks who do not want the burden.

Nobody is demanding China abandon their currency to the free market, only that they take control of the yuan back from foreign central banks and exert a suitable set of deliberate actions in accordance with the empirical behavior of the Chinese economy and established policies of fair trade.

Fair trade is contingent on all participating central banks to use their monetary policies actively and in cooperation.

It is simply wrong

My advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir. The bums will always lose. Do you hear me, Lebowski?