Michele 1 #1 June 27, 2006 Over the last few days, from quite a few different sources, I've been hearing some talk about considering the potential launch from N Korea not as a test, but rather a real threat to the US. Some Senators have spoken of it, and lots of "talking heads" as well as military folk have discussed it as well. Japan is very nervous about this, as well. N. Korea is a dying country, no doubt or question. They have little to lose, and are desperate. I have two thoughts on the potential for threat...one, it's real, and as stated, they haven't anything to lose, so the "test" might accidentally "strike" US soil. And the other, and hopefully more real, thought is that it's a desperate attempt to "blackmail" the US into helping them with...dunno. Money, food, talks, something like that. "All options are on the table" apparently, including negotiations as well as a cruise missle strike to take out the NK missle on the pad. I think that a strike like that would be dangerous at best...but I also think that waiting until it's in the sky is *also* very dangerous. I don't think negotiations will work; we've been trying to talk for a long time...sanctions won't work, because there isn't enough time to feel the effects. Then there is the whole Iran connection, as well. NK has sold/given munitions to Iran, according to several sources...not sure if I trust that or not. But if true, an alliance between NK and Iran is exceedingly unattractive. Is it possible that a proxy strike on the US by Iran via NK could happen? Or is NK vying for attention because Iran is stealing their thunder? So many different possibilities, some more likely than others...and some far more dangerous than others, as well. Any predictions from you all? Any ideas? How should this situation be resolved, in your opinion. Yes, I really am curious as to what you all think...this could be a potentially horrendous situation, and right now, I don't have too much hope it will resolve itself. Ciels- Michele ~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek While our hearts lie bleeding?~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
miked10270 0 #2 June 27, 2006 I'll bet that part of the "diplomatic" communication with North Korea is an explanation of exactly how "MAD" & "Flexible-Response" works... Along with a quick count of how many W-80s & MIRVs are still in the American inventory! That further assumes that the test isn't sabotaged doesn't fail for non-specified reasons (like the 500lb bomb dropped from a B-2). Mike. Taking the piss out of the FrenchAmericans since before it was fashionable. Prenait la pisse hors du FrançaisCanadiens méridionaux puisqu'avant lui à la mode. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,121 #3 June 27, 2006 >Any predictions from you all? The missile will be launched at some time in the middle future (not soon) and will not be a threat to the US. They want the international recognition that they have this capability, but do not want to start a war - and attacking another country will start a war they can't win. The missile will likely fail to achieve its test goals, but they will claim that it did achieve them and that it was a 100% success. We'll claim it didn't, and there will be a lot more speeches by US senators. About the worst thing we could do is attack them now, only to find out the missile was nowhere near ready to launch. The worldwide animosity generated by such a move would be _very_ bad for the US, and might well start a cold war between the US and China (which would wreck both our economies.) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,156 #4 June 27, 2006 Quote> The missile will likely fail to achieve its test goals, but they will claim that it did achieve them and that it was a 100% success. We'll claim it didn't, and there will be a lot more speeches by US senators. Ah, but it has already achieved its political goals.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,121 #5 June 27, 2006 >Ah, but it has already achieved its political goals. Some of them. But imagine the following scenario: They rattle their sabers some more. The US says they will shoot down any missile they launch. NK launches a missile on a polar trajectory. Since it's nowhere near the US, our current midcourse kinetic-kill system can't deal with it. Either the US doesn't launch or they launch and fail. Either way it's not coming near the US so it doesn't much matter. But now NK can claim that its missile works and our system doesn't. A politicial coup for them. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StreetScooby 5 #6 June 27, 2006 Quote But now NK can claim that its missile works and our system doesn't. Are the chemical lasers operational, yet? For a hoot, yall should check out the NK's official website: http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm It would be funny, if it wasn't so scary. I remember reading an article on this website many years ago. It claimed Kim Jong Il (the son, whatever his name is) played golf for the first time. Scored 13 holes in one. And they were serious. We are all engines of karma Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,121 #7 June 27, 2006 >Are the chemical lasers operational, yet? They've been tested - but no operational system exists yet AFAIK. Course I've been out of the DoD side of things for a few years. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
champu 1 #8 June 27, 2006 QuoteThe missile will likely fail to achieve its test goals, but they will claim that it did achieve them and that it was a 100% success. We'll claim it didn't, and there will be a lot more speeches by US senators. That sounds pretty likely. They haven't done all that much of this, and it is rocket science after all. Who knows when or if they are ever going to actually launch the thing, but if I was testing it, I wouldn't want to launch it in this nonsense. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skydyvr 0 #9 June 28, 2006 QuoteBut now NK can claim that its missile works and our system doesn't. A politicial coup for them. Exactly. The smart answer to that is to take the thing out where it sits, poste-haste. A major "political coup" for the USA. . . =(_8^(1) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,156 #10 June 28, 2006 Quote>Are the chemical lasers operational, yet? They've been tested - but no operational system exists yet AFAIK. Course I've been out of the DoD side of things for a few years. Seen in a NOTAM today: !FDC 6/1035 ZDC VA.. SPECIAL NOTICE.. EFFECTIVE FROM 0606281630 UTC UNTIL 0606282000 UTC, AIRBORNE LASER OPERATIONS WILL BE CONDUCTED BETWEEN 365330N/ 761200W OR THE ORF VORTAC AND 343636N/790318W OR THE LBT VORTAC AND 385454N/800600W OR THE EKN VORTAC AND 365330N/761200W OR THE ORF VORTAC, FROM 27,000 FEET MSL TO 28,000 FEET MSL. THE LASER BEAM MAY BE INJURIOUS TO PILOTS'/AIRCREWS' AND PASSENGERS' EYES FOR A DISTANCE OF 8,700 FEET BELOW THE AIRCRAFT. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED BY OBSERVERS AND THE LASER BEAM WILL BE TERMINATED IF NON-PARTICIPATING AIRCRAFT ARE DETECTED THAT MAY ENTER THE AFFECTED AREA. OTHER VISUAL EFFECTS (E.G. LASHBLINDNESS, AFTER IMAGE, GLARE, AND DISTRACTION) MAY OCCUR AT GREATER DISTANCES. THE DOMESTIC EVENTS NETWORK (DEN) AT (202) 493-5107, IS THE FAA COORDINATION FACILITY.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
