Wagging the dog?

[ReBirth 0]

No...nice stretch though. I'm talking about Bush's plan to use the military to restrict domestic travel. As in road blocks, etc.

And as far as Bush planning for this possibility, that's a good thing. I never said there was anything wrong with it. My comments were regarding the focus this seems to be getting, the amount of press, and the amount of speaking time from the president. He should prepare for this possible problem. But does he need to constantly talk it up as if it's an imminent threat? Or is it possible that it is being publicized so much to distract us from other matters?

[JohnRich 4]

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I'm talking about Bush's plan to use the military to restrict domestic travel. As in road blocks, etc. And as far as Bush planning for this possibility, that's a good thing. I never said there was anything wrong with it. My comments were regarding the focus this seems to be getting, the amount of press... Or is it possible that it is being publicized so much to distract us from other matters?

It's possible it's being publicized so much simply because the liberal media loves to make Pres. Bush look like a big bad bully by spouting sensationalist and alarmist propoganda.

Likewise in my example with air travel from an infected country, if an outbreak occurs in a small town in America, that town should be quarantined to prevent the spread of the deadly disease. I'm glad that you agree with that. It's drastic, yes, but with a 50% fatality rate, drastic measures would be called for.

China has already called in their military:

China mobilises military to fight bird flu

China has mobilised its armed forces and allocated emergency funds and vaccines to fight bird flu as a mass cull of poultry and birds continued... The People's Armed Police has been dispatched to Heishan county to help experts carry out the slaughter... Covered head to toe in hooded army outfits and latex gloves, the soldiers were shown in newspapers grabbing chickens by the neck one at a time from rows of cages in the farms and stuffing them into bags... Soldiers also sealed off the affected areas while disinfecting pedestrians and vehicles leaving the premises. More than 30 roadside checkpoints have been set up and some 50 tons of disinfectants were used...

Source: China Daily News

Coming soon, to a city near you.

[ReBirth 0]

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with a 50% fatality rate

That's such a bogus figure. How many rural South East Asians were infected, thought it nothing more than the normal flu or a cold, and never went to a doctor? I'm thinking they don't have HMO in Cambodia. 50% of those that were so sick that people though it could be bird flu in the first place died. How many never got that sick and were therefore not diagnosed?

And as far as the liberal media, I see that it's much more likely in your mind that instead of the whitehouse trying to spin a story, the different media groups got together in a conspiracy to report on the presidents words

Actually, you're right though. It probably is a conspiracy by the press.

[JohnRich 4]

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with a 50% fatality rate

That's such a bogus figure.

News:

A three-day council of war on avian influenza opened here to warnings that a flu pandemic was inevitable, could kill millions and inflict up to 800 billion dollars in economic damage if the world failed to defend itself.

An influenza pandemic, potentially unleashed by a mutation of the H5N1 bird flu virus, "is only a matter of time," World Health Organisation (WHO) Director General Lee Jong-Wook said Monday.

"We don't know when this will happen, but we know it will happen," Lee said...

Lee said that 63 deaths, out of 124 known cases of human infection, had been reported to the WHO...

Source: Breitbart

Let's see, 63 deaths out of 124 cases, equals: 51% mortality!

Do you now care to re-assess your appraisal of this "bogus" figure?

[ReBirth 0]

No...you just proved my point..check out the last two words you bolded. KNOWN CASES. My point is that there have probably been a lot more cases that no one knows about because the people didn't get that sick and din't REPORT THEM TO THE WHO.

Did you call the WHO last time you got a cold?

Do you now care to re-word your claim of a "50% fatality rate" to a "51% mortality in KNOWN CASES REPORTED TO THE WHO".

I just saw your edit about China. So now we're supposed to use China as a guide on when to mobilize armed forces for domestic problems? Are you for real? Ever hear of Tienneman Square?

[JohnRich 4]

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Do you now care to re-word your claim of a "50% fatality rate" to a "51% mortality in KNOWN CASES REPORTED TO THE WHO".

I just saw your edit about China. So now we're supposed to use China as a guide on when to mobilize armed forces for domestic problems? Are you for real? Ever hear of Tienneman Square?

It's just info on the subject. Geez. Chill out.

Known cases are all we've got to go on. We can't compute a rate for possible cases we don't know about.

Where did I say that the U.S. should adopt China's military involvement strategy? I didn't. It's just an example of how the military can come into play on this problem. And that's something we are likely to be facing soon.

What the heck does Tienneman Square have to do with the bird flu? (And isn't it ironic that you're wondering if I'm the one "for real"...) If you read the article, you would have seen that the Chinese military isn't using tanks to suppress students, but rather, using soldiers to round up chickens in infected areas for slaughter. Sorry to disappoint you.

How about you stay focused on this subject, don't put words in my mouth for straw-man arguments, and avoid the personal insults.

[SudsyFist 0]

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Known cases are all we've got to go on. We can't compute a rate for possible cases we don't know about.

I love you, John. *smooches*

[kelpdiver 2]

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Known cases are all we've got to go on. We can't compute a rate for possible cases we don't know about.

Sure you can. It becomes an 'estimate,' but it's a hell of a lot more accurate than changing 'deaths/cases bad enough to require hospitalization' into 'mortality rate.'

You do it by ballparking how many sick people in 10 go to the doctor, and multiply.

[ReBirth 0]

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nown cases are all we've got to go on. We can't compute a rate for possible cases we don't know about.

But we don't need to claim that statistics based on imcomplete data are accurate either.

100% of the women I've dated have been completely nuts. Does that mean that all women are nuts? Wait...bad example....

[Michele 1]

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100% of the women I've dated have been completely nuts. Does that mean that all women are nuts? Wait...bad example....

And I could say that about the men I've been seriously involved with...

I see your point, Rebirth, but I also think that we need to work with the data we have. If the data shows that there are 10 confirmed cases of avian flu, and 5 people die, then the fatality stats on what is known is pretty clear. You can read it the way you do, and again, I see your point. But without testing everyone on the planet for DNA markers, we will never know the exact stats. So we work with what we have.

BTW, 50% is pretty bad. I mean, if you and I get sick, one of us will die. But in thinking about it, 40% is bad, too. And 30%. And 25%. At 25%, in my immediate family, there will be a death. At 20%, there will be a death in my brother's family. Statistically, even if you lower the stats to 1/2 what they are right now (i.e. 50% down to 25%), that's still one gigantic number of people.

So what then is an acceptable rate of fatality to you, that you think should be known prior to taking steps, and planning for the worst case scenario? At what fatality rate would you think, "hey, maybe something should be done..." ? At what point do you think one should start the planning, and the forethought?

As for the other doom and gloom things I've mentioned, we took steps to ameliorate the Y2K thing. We did a good enough job (we as in humans, not a specific country...) that there were no serious problems. We can't really plan for earthquakes - not in terms of government mobility, et cetera. Nor can we plan for other unknown events (i.e. tsunamis, tornados, hurricanes, and so forth). But we can plan for this, and I think it's potentially a far worse problem then lots of people give it credit for being.

I also am willing to place money on some of the same things being in place for a potential outbreak of Ebola, Marburg, smallpox, anthrax, and on and on. And I'm also willing to bet that in all cases, it's a "worst case scenario" that is being discussed, not things less than that.

Ciels-
Michele

~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

[ReBirth 0]

How about you take the fact that the disease is present in a large portion of Asia. So, that's what, about a billion and a half people in the regions where the disease is present? Then you've got what, about 25 deaths. There you go, base your stats on that. Not quite as scary that way, but I guess that's the point.

[EricTheRed 0]

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How about you take the fact that the disease is present in a large portion of Asia. So, that's what, about a billion and a half people in the regions where the disease is present? Then you've got what, about 25 deaths. There you go, base your stats on that. Not quite as scary that way, but I guess that's the point.

The disease that could cause the pandemic doesn't even exist yet. Some people just don't get that little fact.

The virus is evolving. If it evolves into something that is capable of being transmitted easily between humans, all bets are off. The probability of this happening are very high at this time.
The probability of the current H5N1 evolving into something capable of being transmitted between people is greater since the current H5N1 is so wide spread.

To state it simply. The disease that is now infecting birds is not of concern. What is of concern is what it is likely to evolve into. Viri swap genetic code with other viri when they infect the same host, this is one way that they evolve. When an H5N1 virus infects a host already infected with an easily transmitted form of "human flu", it will swap genetic code.

The result of this swapping is tough to predict, and may result in a virus with a 1% fatality rate, or one with a 80% fatality rate. Given enough 'opportunities' there will be a pandemic virus.

illegible usually

[mnealtx 0]

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How about you take the fact that the disease is present in a large portion of Asia. So, that's what, about a billion and a half people in the regions where the disease is present? Then you've got what, about 25 deaths. There you go, base your stats on that. Not quite as scary that way, but I guess that's the point.

While it may be present over a wide geographical area, that does not mean that every person living in that area is infected...

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[ReBirth 0]

I agree. But you can't say that every person that has been infected has been tracked by the WHO. All I'm saying is that claiming a 50% mortality rate is bogus. And as to the post above, same thing. Maybe when it mutates so it can go person to person, it's also less severe.

The only claim I'm making is that those saying there's an imminent chance of a pandemic that will cause a 50% fatality rate are propagating baseless scare tactics.

[EricTheRed 0]

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I agree. But you can't say that every person that has been infected has been tracked by the WHO. All I'm saying is that claiming a 50% mortality rate is bogus. And as to the post above, same thing. Maybe when it mutates so it can go person to person, it's also less severe.

The only claim I'm making is that those saying there's an imminent chance of a pandemic that will cause a 50% fatality rate are propagating baseless scare tactics.

Agreed. You also can't assume that every death is properly recorded. There are a lot of people that die from flu like symptoms that are not tested.
I also agree that claiming a 50% fatality rate is scare tactic. The actual fatality rate could be higher OR lower.

illegible usually

[kallend 2,148]

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The virus is evolving. If it evolves into something that is capable of being transmitted easily between humans, all bets are off. The probability of this happening are very high at this time.

Only if you believe in evolution, which is only a theory!

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[JohnRich 4]

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I love you, John. *smooches*

That's getting a little too friendly. How about we go back to arguing with each other again?

[JohnRich 4]

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nown cases are all we've got to go on. We can't compute a rate for possible cases we don't know about.

But we don't need to claim that statistics based on imcomplete data are accurate either.

Well, I would say it's as "accurate" as we can get with what we know.

And the unknowns here fall into two categories; 1) those who caught bird flu and survived, and; 2) those who caught bird flu and died.

We can't presume that the 50% mortality rate will be lower because there might be some people who got sick and recovered, and didn't bother to report it. There might also be some who died from it, and it wasn't reported. So those unknowns would cut both ways.

But whatever the real number is, this bird flu is a dangerous sum-beech, and not something to take lightly. I think we can all agree on that.

[JohnRich 4]

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The virus is evolving...

Only if you believe in evolution, which is only a theory!

There are also plenty of people who believe that natural disasters which produce mass casualties are the work of god, punishing us for our sins.

[kallend 2,148]

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The virus is evolving...

Only if you believe in evolution, which is only a theory!

There are also plenty of people who believe that natural disasters which produce mass casualties are the work of god, punishing us for our sins.

So far (60 years) I have been very good, then.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[JohnRich 4]

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There are also plenty of people who believe that natural disasters which produce mass casualties are the work of god, punishing us for our sins.

So far (60 years) I have been very good, then.

Ah, if only it were so simple. The problem is that many devoted Christians also get caught-up in those mass casualties. So that doesn't seem to be any kind of guarantee that you'll be safe. When god gets in a good punishing mood, he doesn't seem to care who he affects.

[kelpdiver 2]

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There are also plenty of people who believe that natural disasters which produce mass casualties are the work of god, punishing us for our sins.

So far (60 years) I have been very good, then.

It's been 19 years since I last felt a significant earthquake, and I've lived somewhere in California since then.

[kallend 2,148]

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There are also plenty of people who believe that natural disasters which produce mass casualties are the work of god, punishing us for our sins.

So far (60 years) I have been very good, then.

Ah, if only it were so simple. The problem is that many devoted Christians also get caught-up in those mass casualties. So that doesn't seem to be any kind of guarantee that you'll be safe. When god gets in a good punishing mood, he doesn't seem to care who he affects.

Strange behavior for an omnipotent omniscient being, doncha think? More like my ex wife for one week every month.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[JohnRich 4]

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The problem is that many devoted Christians also get caught-up in those mass casualties. So that doesn't seem to be any kind of guarantee that you'll be safe. When god gets in a good punishing mood, he doesn't seem to care who he affects.

Strange behavior for an omnipotent omniscient being, doncha think? More like my ex wife for one week every month.

It certainly seems so to me. But I'm always told by the faithful that "god works in mysterious ways", and that I should just accept the idea that there is some bigger mysterious purpose to senseless deaths of devoted Christians and others. So I guess there is no such thing as an accident.