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kallend

Strong Storms Increasing

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You know, that is something I have never thought of...until today of course.

I wonder what the tonnage of CO2 we(humans) expel annually into the atmosphere.
Something to the effect of:
Take the average Adult lung capasity. Figure the world population is 75% fully grown, so you need to figure out an average lung capasity of chidren and use that for 25% of the 6 Billion on earth. Figure out the density of our exhaled gasses and what percentage of that is CO2. Multiply it by the molecular weight (or mole weight..can't remember) and come up with some figure.

Anyone up for it?

This much I know...
I exhale an average of 20 times per minute = 1200 times/ hour = 28,800 per day = 10,519,200 times per year.

it is a start.



But plants turn it back into oxygen and sugar or starch during photosynthesis. Good job we're not destroying the rain forests.
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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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There is a shitload more going on in the atmosphere other than CO2,



Exactly. To model the atmosphere via PDE's and Navier-Stokes is a very computationally difficult task. How small are the grids, what are the boundary conditions, and how are you measuring that?
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Point one: Hurricanes are a means of energy transport in the atmosphere. Extra energy (heat in the tropics) would most likely fuel stronger hurricanes.

Point two: If global temperatures were to rise due to a build up of greenhouse gasses, over time there would also be a build up of upper amd mid level clouds. The Albedo of clouds is very high, and would therefore reflect a great ammount of solar radiation back out into space before being absorbed by the surface.
This reflection and lackk of sunlight would cause the earth to radiate in the Infrared more than it absorbed, and therefore would lead to global cooling.



Sounds like a nice, long time-constant phase-shift oscillator to me. Let's hope there's no strangeness about its attractor.
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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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Kallend, I agree with you, but if you look at the world population of both people and of Plants in say the year 1000AD, you will notice there were pobably a lot more plant and a lot less people.

So, I am curious to know how much the human population breaths. From that we can determine the necessary plant life to sustain a balance.

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>How about the cows, though?

Don't laugh! Cows produce a lot of methane, and methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2. All studies of the effect, though, have been proxmired.

>Has anyone ever looked at the ratio of H2O vapor to CO2 in the
>atmosphere?

That's a big factor - but water vapor is much more mobile than CO2. It enters easily (evaporation) and exits easily (precipitation.)

>my gut tells me there's much more going on than just CO2 in the atmosphere.

Definitely true. Just a few of the factors -

Methane is a huge factor. And melting clathrates and melting permafrost will release methane.

Water vapor is another factor. It has a greater greenhouse effect than CO2. However, it also serves as an albedo-increaser in the form of clouds. So some water vapor makes the planet warmer, more may well cool it.

General albedo is yet another factor. As the earth warms, snow melts and albedo drops, which tends to warm the earth even faster.

And all these are interrelated. Warmer ocean temps mean more water vapor, which means more greenhouse effect. But it can also mean more clouds, which means higher albedo and more snow. But the snow thing doesn't work unless it's already cold.

Plus, they're nonlinear. There is a very sharp break in albedo that happens at a surface temp of 0C due to snow changing to rain, and a pretty sharp break in albedo that happens during cloud formation.

All of this means that we're kidding ourselves if we say we know exactly what will happen with the climate when we add massive amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere. Taken alone, that will warm the planet - but there is far more to it than that. Some effects may mitigate the additional heating. Some effects may greatly accelerate it. We don't know enough to say which will win out in the end.

That being said, it is a mistake to ignore the problem. We didn't know exactly where Katrina would hit, or even if we would get massive hurricanes this year. That doesn't mean we should do nothing about it. Two days before landfall is too late to start trying to fix the levees - and we've seen the results of waiting. Let's hope it doesn't take a few disasters of the scale of Katrina before we start worrying about climate change.

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Point one: Hurricanes are a means of energy transport in the atmosphere. Extra energy (heat in the tropics) would most likely fuel stronger hurricanes.

Point two: If global temperatures were to rise due to a build up of greenhouse gasses, over time there would also be a build up of upper amd mid level clouds. The Albedo of clouds is very high, and would therefore reflect a great ammount of solar radiation back out into space before being absorbed by the surface.
This reflection and lackk of sunlight would cause the earth to radiate in the Infrared more than it absorbed, and therefore would lead to global cooling.



Sounds like a nice, long time-constant phase-shift oscillator to me. Let's hope there's no strangeness about its attractor.



Well, we all know it is a perfectly balanced system, but I do NOT think we will ever be able to understand it entirely... The whole Butterfly effect.

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We didn't know exactly where Katrina would hit, or even if we would get massive hurricanes this year.



I would argue that one point.
We pretty much knew we would get large hurrices this year. We of course didn't know if they would strike land, but we did know they would happen with some reasonable certainty.

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Let's hope there's no strangeness about its attractor...



I will never again be able to read the word attractor without seeing your avatar in my mind's eye. I'm calling my therapist now... ;)



You're attracted to bald green guys?

Here's some more attractors:

mathworld.wolfram.com/StrangeAttractor.html
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Point one: Hurricanes are a means of energy transport in the atmosphere. Extra energy (heat in the tropics) would most likely fuel stronger hurricanes.

Point two: If global temperatures were to rise due to a build up of greenhouse gasses, over time there would also be a build up of upper amd mid level clouds. The Albedo of clouds is very high, and would therefore reflect a great ammount of solar radiation back out into space before being absorbed by the surface.
This reflection and lackk of sunlight would cause the earth to radiate in the Infrared more than it absorbed, and therefore would lead to global cooling.



Sounds like a nice, long time-constant phase-shift oscillator to me. Let's hope there's no strangeness about its attractor.



Well, we all know it is a perfectly balanced system, but I do NOT think we will ever be able to understand it entirely... The whole Butterfly effect.



I thought there was a lot of evidence from ice cores, isotope ratios, etc. that climate behaves at least pseudo chaotically with long periods of apparent stability interspersed with periods of rapid change.

Given our inability to model such a complex non-linear system, it seems to me that the prudent thing would be to avoid forcing it. Rather like not disturbing a sleeping dragon.
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Don't laugh! Cows produce a lot of methane, and methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2. All studies of the effect, though, have been proxmired.



So global warming is actually caused by farting cows?:P



Mostly it'sburping cows.

Can't you tell one end of a cow from the other?
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Don't laugh! Cows produce a lot of methane, and methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2. All studies of the effect, though, have been proxmired.



So global warming is actually caused by farting cows?:P



Mostly it'sburping cows.

Can't you tell one end of a cow from the other?



Yep, but I'm not around cows enough to know which end produces the most methane... :P

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This is a bit off topic but, somebody mentioned in a thread on the Bonfire about using C-5's to drop loads of dry ice into a hurricane to collapse it...

Could this actually work? Would the C-5 hold up structurally to the forces of the hurricane?

I am pretty sure that the military or weather geniuses would have thought of this already and put it to use if it was doable... I dunno...
"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

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This is a bit off topic but, somebody mentioned in a thread on the Bonfire about using C-5's to drop loads of dry ice into a hurricane to collapse it...

Could this actually work? Would the C-5 hold up structurally to the forces of the hurricane?

I am pretty sure that the military or weather geniuses would have thought of this already and put it to use if it was doable... I dunno...



I'll defer to storm77 on this, since it's his profession, but from www.weatherquestions.com/What_is_cloud_seeding.htm

"REDUCING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANES THROUGH SEEDING? In the early 1960's, the National Hurricane Center began a series of experiments in seeding of hurricanes to reduce their intensity. Since the most destructive hurricane winds are produced from hurricanes with the smallest diameter eyes, STORMFURY seeding flights tried to stimulate the growth of a new eyewall of convection outside the inner, more destructive eyewall. Unfortunately, the project failed. It has since been determined that there are already an abundance of ice crystals in hurricane rain systems, so the production of new ice particles through cloud seeding probably has little if any effect. "
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Came across this website today:
"Global warming 'past the point of no return'"
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article312997.ece

Paints a frightening picture. The Brits take global warming as a fact. If ocean currents change dramatically, Britain could start looking like the middle of Canada. They may have to learn hockey ;)
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