Strong Storms Increasing

[kallend 2,175]

msnbc.msn.com/id/9359358/

Just in case you hadn't noticed.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[SpeedRacer 1]

...and as we all know, global warming is caused by the decline in the number of pirates (see proof)

(don't forget: Talk Like a Pirate day is this coming Monday, sep 19. Do your part to protect the environment!)

Speed Racer
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[kallend 2,175]

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...and as we all know, global warming is caused by the decline in the number of pirates

(don't forget: Talk Like a Pirate day is this coming Monday, sep 19. Do your part to protect the environment!)

Aaaaargh

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[storm1977 0]

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Some researchers, however, question the connection with more severe hurricanes and cyclones. Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the rise in strong hurricanes reflects a natural weather pattern spanning several decades. Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean were more powerful in the 1950s and '60s, weakened in the 1970s, '80s and early '90s, and have strengthened again since 1995.

"It's not linked to global warming or anything like that," Bell said. "This is normal climate variability. It's just that this trend lasts for decades."

I know your in the field Kallend, but so am I.
I am in research meteorology with MIT, and I don't think at this point it is possible to Link GW with our current Hurricane situation as Robert Kennedy Jr. did two weeks ago.
All the data point to long term cycles which span times well before the Industrial revolution. It is hard for me and many in my field to think that man made GW was occurring in the mid 1800's.

I am not going to get going on the GW discussion again, but there are a few things to point out.

1) this is a hot topic that sells well right now... a little media sensationalism. Much like the shark attacks a few years ago in FLA. Shit you would have thought it was the worst shark attack season ever in FL turns out...it was slightly below average, but the media picked up on it.
2) We (the earth) is still coming out of the last Ice Age... not shit the Earth is warming slightly whether we were here or not it would be.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[Shotgun 1]

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...and as we all know, global warming is caused by the decline in the number of pirates (see proof)

Ok, I have to call BS on your proof, because I am pretty sure that there are more than 17 pirates around today.

And of course now we have all the internet pirates and such.

[StreetScooby 5]

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I am in research meteorology with MIT,

What do you think of this website:
www.iceagenow.com?

Somewhere on the website, I read an article about under water volcanic activity (...it was pointed out to me by a friend). Made sense at the time. What else could warm ocean waters? I still don't buy into gases (e.g. CO2) heating up water (...I know Billvon, you made an excellent point with this argument regarading how else can the earth cool itself, but I'm just not there yet).

We are all engines of karma

[StreetScooby 5]

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...and as we all know, global warming is caused by the decline in the number of pirates.

I AM SO CONFUSED

We are all engines of karma

[mr2mk1g 10]

That's because you've not been touched by His noodly appendage.

[storm1977 0]

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I am in research meteorology with MIT,

What else could warm ocean waters?

Look at the ALbedo of the earth...
Gases do not "Warm up" the H2O. Gasses instead trap solar radiation from reflecting back into space, and indirectly cause the atmoshere to warm up. As the atmosphere warms, the H20 and earth surface warm.

That is no theory... that is fact.
The Big GW debate is on the exact cause of the "Greenhouse Effect"

The ironic thing however, is that GW leads directly to Global Cooling...
It is also a fact that wamer waters do lead to larger Hurricanes. I wouldn't dispute that. A hurricane in some sense is simple a mechanism for nature to balance energy. Hurricanes are giant Heat transport systems. They divert a build up of energy from the tropics northward toward the poles (or south ward in the southern hemisphere.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[StreetScooby 5]

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The ironic thing however, is that GW leads directly to Global Cooling...

Exactly, due to the increase in H2O in the atmosphere. I understand the greenhouse effect (...no, really, Billvon, I do), and I'm not disputing it. There are other forces at work here, and doesn't seem like anyone really knows.

We are all engines of karma

[StreetScooby 5]

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That's because you've not been touched by His noodly appendage.

I don't think I could handle the shock

We are all engines of karma

[storm1977 0]

That is true no one (including me) really KNOWS.
But the happy green people of the world are convinced they KNOW.

And that is why you can not argue with them...

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[mr2mk1g 10]

Conversly though the US administration is convinced they KNOW that humans are not having an effect on things... the Greenies would probably be happy with them saying it's possible and just perhaps it might be an idea to guard against that possability given the serious ramifications of that possability being true.

And that's why you can not argue with them...

[storm1977 0]

I would argue the ramifactions are not "Huge", and I don't think it is the Job of the Federal Govenment to pay out Billions in MY tax dollars based on a Theory some greenies have. If they dirty crunchy hippies had their way, we would all be dead. After all we exhale CO2

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[StreetScooby 5]

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After all we exhale CO2...

You're right! LOL

We are all engines of karma

[billvon 3,132]

>1) this is a hot topic that sells well right now... a little media
> sensationalism.

About the only people that pay better are the oil companies, and many of them have a very strong financial interest in 'proving' global warming is no big deal. There are incentives in both directions.

>2) We (the earth) is still coming out of the last Ice Age... not shit
>the Earth is warming slightly whether we were here or not it would be.

?? I don't understand that sentence, but pointing out that the earth goes through climactic changes isn't news. What we are doing is forcing a climate change to happen much, much faster than it ordinarily would. We can adapt to a climactic change that takes 1000 years, but may not be able to adapt to a change that happens over 100 years.

[billvon 3,132]

>The ironic thing however, is that GW leads directly to Global Cooling...
>It is also a fact that wamer waters do lead to larger Hurricanes. I
>wouldn't dispute that. A hurricane in some sense is simple a
>mechanism for nature to balance energy. Hurricanes are giant Heat
>transport systems. They divert a build up of energy from the tropics
>northward toward the poles (or south ward in the southern
>hemisphere.

So your point is that a buildup of heat causes more hurricanes, and the increase in hurricanes that results will move heat north to the poles, warming them up . . . and this leads to 'global cooling' how?

[storm1977 0]

You know, that is something I have never thought of...until today of course.

I wonder what the tonnage of CO2 we(humans) expel annually into the atmosphere.
Something to the effect of:
Take the average Adult lung capasity. Figure the world population is 75% fully grown, so you need to figure out an average lung capasity of chidren and use that for 25% of the 6 Billion on earth. Figure out the density of our exhaled gasses and what percentage of that is CO2. Multiply it by the molecular weight (or mole weight..can't remember) and come up with some figure.

Anyone up for it?

This much I know...
I exhale an average of 20 times per minute = 1200 times/ hour = 28,800 per day = 10,519,200 times per year.

it is a start.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[storm1977 0]

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>The ironic thing however, is that GW leads directly to Global Cooling...
>It is also a fact that wamer waters do lead to larger Hurricanes. I
>wouldn't dispute that. A hurricane in some sense is simple a
>mechanism for nature to balance energy. Hurricanes are giant Heat
>transport systems. They divert a build up of energy from the tropics
>northward toward the poles (or south ward in the southern
>hemisphere.

So your point is that a buildup of heat causes more hurricanes, and the increase in hurricanes that results will move heat north to the poles, warming them up . . . and this leads to 'global cooling' how?

No that is not my point... you are taking 2 different topics and merging them together.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[billvon 3,132]

>I wonder what the tonnage of CO2 we(humans) expel annually into the atmosphere.

A tiny fraction. The entire world's population puts about 2.4 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. Remember, we only need about 100 watts of power to run ourselves. In 1997, the US emitted 5.4 trillion tons of CO2 from burning fossil fuels alone.

[billvon 3,132]

>you are taking 2 different topics and merging them together.

It's all one big system. Hurricanes, gases in the atmosphere, ocean circulation, cloud-mediated albedo changes, snow-mediated albedo changes, melting of permafrost, release of methane - it's a mistake to think you can isolate systems in our climate IMO.

[storm1977 0]

Point one: Hurricanes are a means of energy transport in the atmosphere. Extra energy (heat in the tropics) would most likely fuel stronger hurricanes.

Point two: If global temperatures were to rise due to a build up of greenhouse gasses, over time there would also be a build up of upper amd mid level clouds. The Albedo of clouds is very high, and would therefore reflect a great ammount of solar radiation back out into space before being absorbed by the surface.
This reflection and lackk of sunlight would cause the earth to radiate in the Infrared more than it absorbed, and therefore would lead to global cooling.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[StreetScooby 5]

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>I wonder what the tonnage of CO2 we(humans) expel annually into the atmosphere.

A tiny fraction. The entire world's population puts about 2.4 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every year. Remember, we only need about 100 watts of power to run ourselves. In 1997, the US emitted 5.4 trillion tons of CO2 from burning fossil fuels alone.

How about the cows, though?

Has anyone ever looked at the ratio of H2O vapor to CO2 in the atmosphere? Billvon, et. al, make an excellent point about the earth's cooling mechanism being radiative and only radiative. Having been involved in large scale nonlinear modeling for many years (e.g., I was on a team at Exxon where we modeled an entire chemical plant to the tune of 50,000 simultaneous equations and we got it right), my gut tells me there's much more going on than just CO2 in the atmosphere.

We are all engines of karma

[storm1977 0]

There is a shitload more going on in the atmosphere other than CO2, however, I thought it would be interesting to compare human CO2 output to other things. Also, it would be curious then to make assumptions about rapid population groth and its output.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[storm1977 0]

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> it's a mistake to think you can isolate systems in our climate IMO.

I am not isolating systems, but you try to get me to say hurricanes bring warm air to the poles causes Global cooling. And that is not the case. Nor was it the point I was trying to make.
The two topics, though in the same system, are on completely different scales. We are comparing Meso to Micro.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty