billvon 3,120 #26 August 17, 2005 >And that is the reason that the market does a good job - anyone >will go with that bulb. When the bulb was $15 only the rabid >environmentalists would buy it. Agreed. Of course, without the rabid environmentalists, the price would have never dropped to $0.99 - no demand means no economies of scale. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rehmwa 2 #27 August 17, 2005 Quote>Agreed. Of course, without the rabid environmentalists, the price would have never dropped to $0.99 - no demand means no economies of scale. Not in this case - they built a better bulb and it will sell. Now let's see how long it takes for solar panels to be cheap enough to just stock up at Menards and Home Depot. The next, greatest replacement for shingles.... ... Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,120 #28 August 17, 2005 >Not in this case - they built a better bulb and it will sell. Nope. I was involved in some of the early designs, back when the only compact flourescents were the Philips PL series. The designs haven't changed; the cheap electronic ones are still Royer oscillators with FETs and cheap magnetics. The parts are cheaper because economies of scale kicked in, but the designs are exactly the same. The reason we did get to those economies of scale is the "rabid environmentalists" bought these things by the tens of thousands. >Now let's see how long it takes for solar panels to be cheap enough > to just stock up at Menards and Home Depot. I can buy solar panels at our Home Depot. They have a big display. The reason they're getting cheap (finally) is that demand has kicked up production, and those economies of scale have kicked in again. The cycle in most cases is the same; rabid environmentalists (or gearheads, or zealous audiophiles, or real geeks) buy a sophisticated piece of technology and drive the price down just a bit, at which point some slightly less rabid environmentalists buy them, which drives the price down even more, etc. It moves in fits and jerks because, of course, a sudden increase in demand drives prices _up_, not down, and it takes a few years for industry to adjust and exploit the new economies of scale. That's happened recently which is why panels are scarce and expensive right now. But they will come down again, as they have over the last 30 years. And that's also the place that government incentives have in all this. If it hadn't been for some of the early incentive programs, solar panels would still be $20/watt. No one wants to pay that price, so no one makes panels, so the prices never come down. The incentives were a sort of a 'kick start' that worked really well; prices nowadays are around $4/watt. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mdrejhon 8 #29 August 18, 2005 Quote>Now let's see how long it takes for solar panels to be cheap enough > to just stock up at Menards and Home Depot. I can buy solar panels at our Home Depot. They have a big display. Lucky you... But they're not stocked around here yet. Northern climes such as Canada benefit somewhat less, but eventually I'd love to see them up here. Only $400 for a 100-watt solar panel is a very good price compared to the past, and that almost puts it within my price range now (if I had a house and everything else I needed...) The energy crunch in your state in 2001 is happening in midsummer in Ontario both last summer and this summer. We've having a minor (major?) energy crisis in Ontario this summer, with brownouts and occasional rolling blackouts (which didn't hit the downtown core). Although we've managed to stave off importing TOO much energy, and avoiding going to the soup kitchen, we had several advisories to turn off our air conditioners and cut back energy use. On top of this, a brownout was recently instituted temporarily - the 5 percent voltage drop caused some minor inconveniences (traffic light malfunction in a town, and some complaints at a factory, here and there) Last year my apartment went nearly 100% Compact Flourescent (The instant-on CF lightbulbs are my favourite!). Only bedroom and oven lights were left incandescent. But I'm leaving the air conditioner on -- very hard to turn off! It's central air conditioning anyway, so... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,120 #30 August 18, 2005 >But they're not stocked around here yet. They're not that hard to find. There are a dozen places here I can think of; there's probably one or two by you. Canada sounds more like a microhydro or wind place though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mdrejhon 8 #31 August 18, 2005 There is a bunch of power projects involving wind under construction now and in the pipeline (including a massive 700 megawatt wind power farm off BC's coast). I hope many of these come to completion. Our government wants to shut down all but one coal plant in this province (Ontario) within a few years, and we're not going to be able to do that with the recent summertime power crunches (which has eased off after temperatures dropped). Should ease up after two more years when new power capacity comes online. There are now small solar resellers popping up now, but definitely not in the big names here (yet). The prices are definitely higher than California though. Humidex exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit have happened this summer around here a little more often than usual. It's no fun packing on these days Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike111 0 #32 August 18, 2005 the same here is in england, solar panels are expensive and it is cheaper for families to get more electricity from coal power stations thsan to buy them Until the demand for these things goes up, prices will stay quite high. + the weather factor makes few people want to get them A pity really. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
