how long will civilisation as we know it last.

[rhys 0]

there has been many civilisations over time.

human life and 'progress' seem to be increasing at an alarming rate these days.
i can remember when there was no such thing as a personal computer and remote controls. now we are 'dependant' on such things in some way or another.
technology and consumtion are increasing at such an alarming rate and there seems to be no regard for ecology when it comes to progress.
there seems to be no limit to what we can make or do with the earths recources, but the portrayed images of the future that i have seen all seem to include darkness, corruption and war. this seems to be what we envision the future will bring. there has even been absurd talk of living on another planet when this ones fucked.

i'm just wondering how much longer everybody thinks our 'modern'/western lifestlye can go on before something, be it natural(climate change) or man made(nuclear war etc.) changes the way we live entirely?

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[Trae 1]

There is a train of belief that is kept out of the popular media that this planet suffers a major planet wide cataclysm every 10,000 - 12000 years.

This is supposed to be due to the planet shifting on its axis a bit...wobbling as it does. This creates a swirling of the oceans and a re-alignment of the poles...magnetic and actual.

The waves of destruction are powerful enough to tear all the vegetation from half a continent and dump it up against the nearest large mountain range. Coal deposits and fossil concentrations can be explained in this way.

Previous wiped out civilisations often try to warn the next lot coming through(pyramids ,ancient star observatories ) but each time it happens we go back to being cave dwellers.
Apparently this cycle is in its last 1000 years or so .

Just a little something to look forward to.

[popsjumper 2]

What?????

Where do you get this...this....(be nice here)...shit?

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

[wmw999 2,589]

I've heard this before. However, it was supposed to happen in 2000 (which is now the rapidly-receding past).

Civilization isn't a static thing, so it only exists as we know it in our own imagination. It's always changing. And yes, most people see it differently. Is our civilization different from the Middle Ages? Depends on what you think is important.

Wendy W.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[TomAiello 26]

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technology and consumtion are increasing at such an alarming rate and there seems to be no regard for ecology when it comes to progress.

Actually, I'm fairly convinced that our technological progress has become significantly more ecologically friendly in the past 100 years.

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[AlexCrowley 0]

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Actually, I'm fairly convinced that our technological progress has become significantly more ecologically friendly in the past 100 years.

Unfortunately any ecologically friendly method has been substantially more destructive because of the volume of use compared to the population 100 years ago. We are running out of water because of concentrated agribusiness, we are running out of fossil fuels because of domestic consumption and the additional demands of rapidly industrializing 2nd world countries. Let alone the damage we're causing to the food chain with GM crops (see: patenting is a really bad idea, and 'ohhh is that how pollen dispersal really happens? my bad'), genetic damage to meat and poultry from both farming methods and contaminated environmental issues, general business polutions. Incorrect food quotas (oh you mean if we count all fish as X and base quotas on X we're in a decreasing cycle cos we didnt take parenting age fish into account!? Yup, thats why fishstocks are depleting rapidly).

Volume is the killer, but I'd still argue that ecologically we've found all new ways to mess up the biosphere.

BTW I'm a meat eating fatalist, rather than some tree hugging hippy.

If we use the historical record as a guideline (re-read that, it's important) the US is entering the same point that Rome did before it's fall. That's if you count civilization as being a predominant mindset (greeks, romans, british empire, United States).

TV's got them images, TV's got them all, nothing's shocking.

[Trae 1]

Nice enough... I read it somewhere but that doesn't mean I believe it but it does sound likely to me.

Here's another one you may like or not .

There is a train of thought that thinks that human evolution is directly connected with the periodic chart of the elements.

Bronze onto iron onto uranium and beyond if we don't blow ourselves up with the uranium. The higher elements (nuclear blow up stuff) apparently represent a barrier for insufficiently advanced civilisations.

ie the dumbo ones blow themselves up thus saving the rest of the universe from having the same fate.

It is possible that an earthbound civilisation manages to control itself enough so that it don't nuke the world.

Mars got all blown up and look how pretty it is.
Earth could easily suffer the same fate .

The good thing about this element barrier thing is that the elements after the barrier start to get stable again and have specially wonderful properties that us small brains can hardly imagine.

The word is that these higher elements can be manipulated by thought and high level emotions ---such as true unconditional love.
Out there sheet eh?

Then we get to pee off from this dust ball of death and get to see what else is out there. ....without taking all our little bombies with us...

Pick me for that load

[livendive 8]

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technology and consumtion are increasing at such an alarming rate and there seems to be no regard for ecology when it comes to progress.

Actually, I'm fairly convinced that our technological progress has become significantly more ecologically friendly in the past 100 years.

I'd agree, but I'd also suggest (WAG) that the population increases and amount of consumption has increased at a rate that likely negates (at best)such improvements, at least on a global scale.

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[livendive 8]

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There is a train of thought that thinks that human evolution is directly connected with the periodic chart of the elements.

Bronze onto iron onto uranium and beyond if we don't blow ourselves up with the uranium.

Where can I find bronze on the periodic table of the elements?

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[TomAiello 26]

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I'd also suggest (WAG) that the population increases and amount of consumption has increased at a rate that likely negates (at best)such improvements, at least on a global scale.

I wonder about the trend lines, though. Is it possible that at some point the rate of "increased environmental friendliness" will overtake the rate of "consumption increase", resulting in a net reduction in ecological damage?

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[AlexCrowley 0]

If we kill a billion people perhaps.

Our consumption strips our output, only by greatly reducing consumption will the equation balance.

One of the first programs I ever did was the rabbit/fox life cycle in BASIC (for ZX Spectrum). When there were lots of rabbits you could have lots of foxes, til all the foxes ate most of the rabbits, then the foxes starved out til there were a lot of rabbits again.

TV's got them images, TV's got them all, nothing's shocking.

[livendive 8]

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If we kill a billion people perhaps.

Our consumption strips our output, only by greatly reducing consumption will the equation balance.

So is war a built-in human tendency to preserve the species by reducing the population?

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[AlexCrowley 0]

I think that's a built in human drive to be correct and to own stuff.

TV's got them images, TV's got them all, nothing's shocking.

[rehmwa 2]

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Where can I find bronze on the periodic table of the elements?

3rd row, halfway across - after yogurt, but before stainless steel

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[livendive 8]

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I wonder about the trend lines, though. Is it possible that at some point the rate of "increased environmental friendliness" will overtake the rate of "consumption increase", resulting in a net reduction in ecological damage?

Take those trend lines back 500 years, a relatively short period in the grand scheme of things. Our damage to the environment consisted of settling, logging, and mining sufficient for a low-technology population that was what, maybe a 10th the size of the current population. There were localized air quality issues from wood burning, likely insignicant on a global scale when compared with wildfires in uninhabited regions. That was about it (or at least is all that springs to my mind).

So at the time we had a relatively minor impact. Think we'll ever get back to being that benign?

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[Zep 0]

Don't know, but as long as it survives longer than I do I'm not to worried.

Arn't we due another good meteor strike soon Solve a lot of problems,

Gone fishing

[EricTheRed 0]

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If we kill a billion people perhaps.

Our consumption strips our output, only by greatly reducing consumption will the equation balance.

So is war a built-in human tendency to preserve the species by reducing the population?

Blues,
Dave

Only one of the four horsemen.
War, Famine, Pestilence, and Death

I'd give pestilence (disease) and famine the nod in the race.

Biological systems will always try to achieve equilibrium, right now we are out of balance.
There will be something that will reduce the population.

To the original post, I’d guess we’ve got about 3 generations before either there is a population crash that partially resets the clock, or a voluntary (designed) evolution of humanity. We will have the technology to create custom life through DNA splicing and cloning in the near future, how we will use this is an open question.

There is no doubt in my mind that IF there is no major crash that sets us back, that humanity will use this ability (DNA splicing) to evolve.

There will probably even be wars fought over human gene splicing, but it will be tried. Perhaps very covertly at first, but then more openly as the success of ‘superhuman’ beings leaks out.

illegible usually

[JohnRich 4]

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If we use the historical record as a guideline the US is entering the same point that Rome did before it's fall.

Back when the 13 Colonies were still a part of England, a Professor Alexander Tyler wrote about the fall of the Athenian Republic that had occurred over 1,000 years ago:

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising them the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, followed by dictatorship. The average age of the world's great civilizations has been 200 years.

They have progressed as follows:
· From bondage to spiritual faith;
· From spiritual faith to great courage;
· From great courage to liberty;
· From liberty to abundance;
· From abundance to selfishness;
· From selfishness to complacency;
· From complacency to apathy;
· From apathy to dependency;
· From dependency back to bondage."

- "The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic", Alexander Fraser Tyler (1748 - 1813).

I think we are currently well into the selfishness/complacency/
apathy/dependency stages...

[kallend 2,150]

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There is a train of thought that thinks that human evolution is directly connected with the periodic chart of the elements.

Bronze onto iron onto uranium and beyond if we don't blow ourselves up with the uranium.

Where can I find bronze on the periodic table of the elements?

Blues,
Dave

Between copper and tin.

Actually civilization has always been strongly dependent on the materials available to make things. Stone, horn, antler, bronze, iron, steel, silicon.... As materials improved, so the things that could be made became more complex.

Did you know the earlist known bronzes are copper-arsenic alloys. Unfortunately smelting them had a toxic effect on the smiths. An early sign of arsenic poisoning is lameness. Hence Hephaistos (Vulcan) is always depicted as lame.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[markd_nscr986 0]

Earth first!

We'll mine the other planets later

*bumper sticker spotted in a local mining town*

Marc SCR 6046 SCS 3004

[Trae 1]

Yep but save the Sun for last cause its shiny.

[Everon 0]

If I may, there have been documented catastrophes through earth's history (dinosaurs, etc.) Who's to say humans will even be here in X years? Every global warming event's symptoms have originated in the arctic. Every global warming event has led to an ice age. The average temperature on this planet has increased by about 1 degree in the past century. The average temperature in Alaska has increased 6 degrees in the last 30 years. If we have a "snowball" planet, I don't think we'll be here to see it. Of course certain scientists, and therefore I (believing them), could be wrong - but it's scary nonetheless.

[AMax 0]

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There is a train of thought that thinks that human evolution is directly connected with the periodic chart of the elements.

Bronze onto iron onto uranium and beyond if we don't blow ourselves up with the uranium. The higher elements (nuclear blow up stuff) apparently represent a barrier for insufficiently advanced civilisations.

makes me wonder how sodium and potassium fit into this theory ...

[nanook 1]

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makes me wonder how sodium and potassium fit into this theory

gatorade

_____________________________

"The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you can never know if they are genuine" - Abraham Lincoln

[popsjumper 2]

Good one, John.

Seems to me we're in the apathy-dependency stage.

The USA wasn't built in a day!

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239