oilcrash.com

[rhys 0]

so what do you lot think of this, whether you are a hippie or an oil drinking consumer fuck.

what do you reckon.

oilcrash.com (don't know how to make clicky)

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[mnealtx 0]

There's this little "url" button under the posting window....

www.oilcrash.com

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[nacmacfeegle 0]

Well, I'm a hippy who services oil drinking consumer fucks via my current employer, the reviled Halliburton, so don't go paying too much attention to me!.

What do I think?...the site is somewhat pessimistic.
http://www.oilcrash.com/

What will happen is that marginal reserves will become financialy viable, this is already happening around the world, ANWR being a prime example. As will exploring alternative energy sources, thereby maintaining a balance.
For example, in NZ you might see development of geothermal energy for power generation, thereby limiting the effects of petrochemical shortages.

"Therefore, reduction of virtually all business and government activity. Very serious unemployment"

Au contraire, I see a very bright future finding and exploiting increasingly challenging oil and gas reserves.

--------------------

He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson

[EricTheRed 0]

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I see a very bright future finding and exploiting increasingly challenging oil and gas reserves.

I've been arguing this point for some time. While very high oil prices will make some people very uncomfortable and will undoubtably cause some industries to go under, others will arise and benefit greatly.

illegible usually

[AndyMan 7]

I think the most pessimistic of the respected opinions estimate Hibberts Peak as being hit in the next 10 to 20 years.

Discussions about it happening earlier are interesting.

Statements saying it's happening right now are alarmist.



_Am

__

You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead.

[larsrulz 0]

The biggest thing which this obviously one-sided page fails to consider is that oil wells which have produced (i.e. the oil has been obtained from the field) at current only obtain 35-45% of the oil present. That means that as technology continues to be developed, so many no-longer-producing wells can be redrilled and reproduced. Check out a company like Schlumberger to see just how advanced some of this technology is. Head out to western Texas sometime and you'll see that so many of the old wells are being repurchased by companies and they output lots more oil.

The pessimistic viewpoint of the page you provide fails to consider many other things, while there are fewer "giant" fields being discovered currently, the number of smaller fields continue to increase. Take countries such as Angola and Brazil for example, during the 1990's, their proven reserves had a 400% and 200% renewal rate respectively (i.e. in Angola for each barrel of oil drilled, 4 more were discovered). Not to mention the number of off-shore rigs which continue to increase. Compound that with the advances in deep off-shore technologies and the potential advancement in shale oil technologies, and it's quite obvious that oil will not be a problem for quite a long time, certainly not within the next two years.

I got a strong urge to fly, but I got no where to fly to. -PF

[DrunkMonkey 0]

All I give a shit about is whether we will be able to get from point A to point B during my lifetime, without paying $10 for a quart of gas.

Guess everyone will be riding Vespas soon...

[billvon 3,120]

>That means that as technology continues to be developed, so many
> no-longer-producing wells can be redrilled and reproduced.

That's definitely true, and it is more accurate to say that we're about to run out of _cheap_ oil. We'll never run out of oil completely - heck, if you want to spend $1000 a barrel, you could synthesize a barrel of oil out of air, water and sulfur.

As oil gets more expensive, methods like tar sand oil extraction, shale oil extraction, clathrate harvesting etc become economically viable. What this will mean is a tremendous increase in oil prices; the new higher prices will then finance the new extraction techniques.

If that happened gradually, we could live with it. We would gradually switch over to alternatives (biodiesel, ethanol, pure electric, methane etc) as the price increased, and eventually we'd find a new balance between expensive oil and cheap methane (for example.) The problem is that we are putting all our chips in one basket. We are basing our entire transportation infrastructure on cheap oil, and our demand is still growing exponentially. That means as supply starts to drop, there is going to be a point at which demand exceeds supply so much that oil prices will go through the roof, and our economy will collapse.

How do we prevent that? Diversify now, while oil is still cheap. Get the infrastructures in place to support methane, biodiesel, ethanol, pure electric etc so that they are ready to go when the prices start rising (which they are doing already.) That way, when oil prices do go through the roof, vehicles just switch to another source of energy.

>t's quite obvious that oil will not be a problem for quite a long
>time, certainly not within the next two years.

We will have problems before that; heck, we are ALREADY seeing massive hikes in oil prices due to scarcity. Not because we lack alternatives but because we lack the time to scale them up. We use ten thousand gallons of oil a _second_; it takes a while to get new technologies up to those production levels.

[billvon 3,120]

> All I give a shit about is whether we will be able to get from point A
>to point B during my lifetime, without paying $10 for a quart of gas.

That will happen. However, that doesn't have to be the end of the world. Imagine having a choice of paying $10/liter for gas or $3/liter for biodiesel; at that point it's an easy decision. Now we just have to make sure the vehicles are available so we can make that choice when the time comes.

[larsrulz 0]

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That will happen. However, that doesn't have to be the end of the world. Imagine having a choice of paying $10/liter for gas or $3/liter for biodiesel; at that point it's an easy decision. Now we just have to make sure the vehicles are available so we can make that choice when the time comes.

Of course the price of gas will go up as it gets harder to obtain oil, but the question becomes, within the next 50 years how severe will the increase be? You seem to think $37.85/gallon is a likely result, whereas there is no backing of this idea. Europeans certainly don't mind paying $4 a gallon, how will Americans be different? Only time will tell.

I got a strong urge to fly, but I got no where to fly to. -PF

[markd_nscr986 0]

Or maybe we could tap into the huge natural gas supply and use that in internal combustion engines as a stop gap,until alternate technologies are more affordable.........

And yes,I like my crude "sweet".....it taste better

Marc SCR 6046 SCS 3004

[billvon 3,120]

> within the next 50 years how severe will the increase be? You seem to
> think $37.85/gallon is a likely result, whereas there is no backing of this
> idea.

In 1950, gas was 25 cents a gallon. As I look out my window today I see gas for $2.45 a gallon. That's an increase of 10 times in 55 years. In the next 50 years, even WITHOUT a shortage, that would indicate a price of $25 a gallon. I suspect a chronic shortage might increase that by another 50% at the very least.

[wmw999 2,589]

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In 1950, gas was 25 cents a gallon

I paid less than 30 cents a gallon when I started driving in 1973.

The only way we (as a country and people) will get serious on a large scale about conservation will be when it gets too inconvenient to the rest of our desired lifestyle. We're extremely privileged here; we can agonize and focus about convenience rather than life.

Wendy W.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[larsrulz 0]

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In 1950, gas was 25 cents a gallon. As I look out my window today I see gas for $2.45 a gallon. That's an increase of 10 times in 55 years. In the next 50 years, even WITHOUT a shortage, that would indicate a price of $25 a gallon. I suspect a chronic shortage might increase that by another 50% at the very least.

In the 1950s, my parents could get a hamburger for 10 cents...that certainly hasn't stopped people from getting fat today. Inflation is a fact of life, salaries increase as do the cost of goods and services. If gas becomes $25 a gallon next year, then that is certainly something that will have effect, but $25 gallon of gas in 2060 will hardly be an issue.

I got a strong urge to fly, but I got no where to fly to. -PF

[billvon 3,120]

>Inflation is a fact of life, salaries increase as do the cost of goods and
> services. If gas becomes $25 a gallon next year, then that is certainly
> something that will have effect, but $25 gallon of gas in 2060 will hardly
> be an issue.

?? You've gone from unbelieving of a $37 gallon of gas to claiming a $25 gallon of gas is a non-issue? OK.

$25 is the _best_case_, and is what we would see if oil supplies were unlimited. They're not. $37 is even pretty good; that means that they are somewhat limited but we're still getting it. I have a feeling they will be even higher than that. They will be limited not by the amount of oil we find, but rather by the price of alternatives.

Biodiesel can be profitably produced at $5/gallon. Therefore a more reasonable estimate of future fuel prices would be $50/gal - and that's if the increased demand does not drive biodiesel prices up, and we can get enough water and land etc etc which right now we can't. In other words, that's still optimistic.

[DrunkMonkey 0]

Billvon: Do you own stock in an ethanol or bio-diesel company, or are you going to be equally fucked as the rest of us when it all hits the fan? Because you are the most pessimistic one here...

I'd convert to Electric tomorrow if the technology/performance was there...

It's not any one person's fault the system is this way... The Oil companies have a huge incentive to lobby strongly against the government subsudizing alternative technology research.

Wars for Oil are going to be much more common in the future...

[larsrulz 0]

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?? You've gone from unbelieving of a $37 gallon of gas to claiming a $25 gallon of gas is a non-issue? OK.

Quote

I'm merely commenting on that fact that you are trying to quantify something which can't possibly be quantified, at least not with the lack of data you appear to be using. I don't disbelieve that gas could hit $37 a gallon, but you're just pulling numbers randomly out of no where.

There are two sides to the oil dispute, I obviously tend more towards the optimistic one, but there is no way of knowing which will come to bear. The optimistic viewpoint has much more data to back up their ideas, whereas the pessimistic one merely states that there will be no more oil discoveries. What the future entails, no one knows, but pulling numbers out of the air really advances nothing.

I got a strong urge to fly, but I got no where to fly to. -PF

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[rhys 0]

O.K. we all accept the fact that oil is running out at an auguable rate. to be purely selfish, how do you think this will effect skydiving in the next 10-20 years. i am not too clued up on jet-a1 production but i assume it is from crude oil?

between pessemism and optimism there is an answer?

do you drive a v8 or a 4

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[billvon 3,120]

>Do you own stock in an ethanol or bio-diesel company, or are you going
>to be equally fucked as the rest of us when it all hits the fan?

Well, 1/4 as fucked. We don't need grid electricity, we have two hybrids that both get over 50mpg, and I have one pure electric vehicle.

>I'd convert to Electric tomorrow if the technology/performance was there...

You can convert to gas/electric right now. Very soon there will be pluggable hybrids that will let you make short trips with no fuel at all.

>It's not any one person's fault the system is this way... The Oil
>companies have a huge incentive to lobby strongly against the
> government subsudizing alternative technology research.

I agree. To counteract that, we need a huge effort to lobby _for_ that very research. Oil companies are powerful, but compared to the purchasing/lobbying power of even 25% of the country, they can't compete.

[billvon 3,120]

>I'm merely commenting on that fact that you are trying to quantify
>something which can't possibly be quantified, at least not with the lack of
> data you appear to be using. I don't disbelieve that gas could hit $37 a
> gallon, but you're just pulling numbers randomly out of no where.

I listed the data to support the numbers. You can decide to use different data if you choose.

>The optimistic viewpoint has much more data to back up their ideas,

Translation - you like the optimistic viewpoint and thus believe the people who espouse it. The data really doesn't change much no matter which side of the argument you're on. There are proven reserves, estimated undiscovered reserves, and estimates for various alternative sources (like tar sands.) Get predicted global consumption and compare the two.

>whereas the pessimistic one merely states that there will be no more oil
> discoveries.

You are missing the point. Even if we continue to discover oil at the same rate we are now, there isn't enough to meet our needs. There _will_ be a shortage. There already is to a degree; OPEC has come out and said they can no longer pump enough to control the price of oil. Believing we will someday discover an infinite amount of oil is a nice thought but unfounded in reality. Even if you take the best-case guess of known (and potential) reserves, we still run out of cheap oil at some point. The only question is when, and how fast it will hit.

[EricTheRed 0]

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There _will_ be a shortage. There already is to a degree; OPEC has come out and said they can no longer pump enough to control the price of oil. Believing we will someday discover an infinite amount of oil is a nice thought but unfounded in reality. Even if you take the best-case guess of known (and potential) reserves, we still run out of cheap oil at some point. The only question is when, and how fast it will hit.

Absolutely,

I think the rate of growth of consumption will be sharply muted though by the rising price of oil. It is already happining to a small degree and the pace will accelerate. It starts with people like you Bill, who are onthe leading edge, but as the price of oil rises, others reduce their consumption as well.
People in the US will drive less, fly less and some will even buy fuel efficient vehicles and carpool. They will bitch and maon about doing it but they will still do it.
As the demand for 6,000 lb "cars" dies off, the automakers will either a) make fuel effiecient cars or b) go broke.
As you have stated, there are many alternatives to oil. Right now they cost more. As oil gets more expensive, they won't. When x is cheaper than Y it becomes attractive to even the most un-environmentally concious. People switch to X (couse they have been trained to be cheep by WAL-MART) and we use less oil.

It will take years, some people will get hurt. Some will make a butt-load of $$$$ selling solar panels, wind turbines, natural gas microturbine generators, fuel cells and batteries. Lots and lots of batteries.

There is already a lot of research on improving the existing tech. Not much from the govmt but corporate america isn't all dumb.

There are a lot of $$$ flowing into (and out of) chasing alternative energy sources. Should there be more? Probably.
I just hope skydiving doesn't get too expensive in the meantime.

illegible usually

[billvon 3,120]

>When x is cheaper than Y it becomes attractive to even the most
> un-environmentally concious. People switch to X (couse they have been
>trained to be cheep by WAL-MART) and we use less oil.

Right. The only question is - how fast can that happen? If oil went to $500/barrel tomorrow, the US transportation network would collapse and our economy would go under shortly thereafter. Not because alternatives don't exist, but because right now there are six month waiting lists for hybrids and natural gas vehicles. They can't build them fast enough.

Suppose it happens over twenty years? We can handle that - IF we put the effort into making sure the vehicles/systems are available. If, at that point, each car manufacturer out there makes a few hybrids, diesels, electrics, natural gas cars etc then the transition won't be too bad. By the time gas hits $30 a gallon, people will have already begun to buy the alternate vehicle cars, and the transition is manageable. Car manufacturers just have to scramble to up production on their alternative-energy cars. (and trains, and aircraft etc etc.)

The thing I worry about is what we're doing now, which is almost nothing. If we spend the next 20 years paying laywers and armies to keep the cost of oil down, rather than paying engineers and scientists to develop the technologies that will let us deal with the end of cheap oil, then we might get to that 20 year point and have the crisis hit - and we will be as unprepared as we are today. That would be bad.

[Guest]

Quote

>Do you own stock in an ethanol or bio-diesel company, or are you going
>to be equally fucked as the rest of us when it all hits the fan?

Well, 1/4 as fucked. We don't need grid electricity, we have two hybrids that both get over 50mpg, and I have one pure electric vehicle.

>I'd convert to Electric tomorrow if the technology/performance was there...

You can convert to gas/electric right now. Very soon there will be pluggable hybrids that will let you make short trips with no fuel at all.

>It's not any one person's fault the system is this way... The Oil
>companies have a huge incentive to lobby strongly against the
> government subsudizing alternative technology research.

I agree. To counteract that, we need a huge effort to lobby _for_ that very research. Oil companies are powerful, but compared to the purchasing/lobbying power of even 25% of the country, they can't compete.

We'll start seeing more and more of that kind of pressure when it reaches the tipping point with respect to the average consumer's wallet, but not until then. Only when it really hurts will that kind of pressure be exerted, and at that point, the oil lobby will be swept away.

When the petroleum-based economies of scale are gone, the geopolitical landscape will change drastically overnight. When oil is no longer the prime factor in the world economy, I predict that a lot of the Arab-Moslem nuttiness will subside. The Middle East will go back to being the worthless wasteland it always was, and the Western powers will no longer "interfere" with those countries.

Places like Qatar in the UAE have seen the writing on the wall, and are diversifying their economies against the day when the wells run dry. We'd do well to follow their example.

mh

.

"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

[AdD 1]

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The Middle East will go back to being the worthless wasteland it always was, and the Western powers will no longer "interfere" with those countries.

You should realize that the Middle East was the center of civilization hundreds of years before Europe emerged into anything resembling a nice place to live.

Life is ez
On the dz
Every jumper's dream
3 rigs and an airstream

[Guest]

Quote

Quote

The Middle East will go back to being the worthless wasteland it always was, and the Western powers will no longer "interfere" with those countries.

You should realize that the Middle East was the center of civilization hundreds of years before Europe emerged into anything resembling a nice place to live.

That was before they made the "Wrong Turn at Albuquerque" and went off on unending wars of aggression against Europe.

After that, the Middle East went backward. If they had carried on in their original direction, the world would be a very different place indeed.

mh

.

"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."