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tunaplanet

2004 Presidential Election Thread

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what time do they announce who wins?



Usually not long after that state's polling closes.

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but how long will this go for?



Last poll closes at 2300 (except for Alaska and Hawaii). However we may know before then for only 270 votes are needed to win.

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How long until Kerry wins?



At the very least it will be 2008.



Forty-two

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what time do they announce who wins?



This is such a close race that they may not announce until well into the night.

The system in the US requires 270 electoral college votes. Each state gets a different amount based on population. If a candidate wins in a particular state, he may receive all the votes for that state or the votes may be divided up percentagewise to each candidate. It's a state-by-state issue.

So, the upshot of all of this is that it's going to be very difficult to predict a winner based on early voting results.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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They'll start guessing as soon as polls officially close. But it will only be a small percentage of the votes tallied and there will still be people in line to vote (in most states you just have to be in line by the cut off time).

The actual official preliminary numbers for votes from the polls probably won't be counted until tomorrow sometime. And then for anywhere close, they'll then have to include all the absentee votes. Unless there's a pretty iron clad win without even having to consider the straggling results, we may not know for a week, even without any lawsuits.

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One of the things that you're probably NOT going to see this time 'round is a lot of speculation from the media about who has won based on very, very small numbers of reports. They pretty much learned from 2000 that's not the way to do things.

The first polls close in about 3 hours and while I'm certian we'll hear a LOT about those states and who's up and down, like I said before, I don't think "they" are going to be naming a winner until it's pretty certain and that may be pretty late tonight.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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If a candidate wins in a particular state, he may receive all the votes for that state or the votes may be divided up percentagewise to each candidate.


There is also the issue that not all states require their electors vote the way their states popular vote goes, a phenomenon called "faithless electors". Its rare, but can happen, although I doubt in a scale that would turn an election.

J
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. - Edmund Burke

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How long until Kerry wins?



Okay, lay your right hand out on the table. Close your eyes.

smack, smack, smack

That's what you get for even typing that!
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. - Edward Abbey

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Got this in an email, supposedly from Kerry's pollster, polling of early voters in states where that occured.

Florida - 30 percent of state -- 53-47 for Kerry

Iowa 57 to 41 percent for Kerry (compared to about +6 margin in early vote in 2000)

Oregon - early vote (which is the whole electorate) 53 to 47 percent for Kerry

New Mexico 51-48 for Kerry

Nevada 48 to 50 with Bush ahead


I only hope it's true.

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Still a lot of variables to consider in that bro. I kind of take all that stuff with a grain of salt (that is to say I try not to look at it because it causes me to have stomach pain unnecesarily). I just hope it's decided relatively soon either way and that it's decisive so we don't have to argue for the next 4 years.

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Yeah, I know it's not even a good indicator. Just gives me a good feeling. I said in the other thread, just judging by what's going on outside my window I'm calling for Kerry decisively with Bush conceding tonight. Turn out is huge and that is hugely in his favor.

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Final numbers . . . yeah I can certainly understand that, but if it is decisive by a couple of states, it could be pretty certain by later tonight.

Two hours to go until we start hearing the first numbers.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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