Iraq in January?

[PhillyKev 0]

Which do you think is more likely at this point?

[Frenchy68 0]

See Algeria circa 1992. Well, hopefully not...

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

[billvon 3,131]

My prediction:

By January insurgents will be in control of many of the city centers. Iraqi police will be battling them constantly (or alternatively joining forces with them) - we will stay out of the way as much as possible, although we'll still be losing about 50 troops a month. There will be elections by next June, although the candidates will be hand-picked US appointees. The Iraqis will have al-Sadr and Sistani as their new heroes, and will be trying to ignore the conflicting demands of the local militias, police, interim government, and occupational authorities.

There won't be a full-blown civil war as we might imagine it. No one will take on the US directly. They will fight delaying actions, picking off one or two US soldiers at a time, then dispersing into the cities when we come in to get them. Since they will have support of the Iraqis, it will be impossible to find them.

Right wingers will claim victory time and time again, while left wingers will cite the body counts and failure of the new government to control the country.

In other words, not much will change.

[PhillyKev 0]

I believe pretty much the same thing.

However, given these two extremems, which do you think more likely?

[turtlespeed 226]

Quote

I believe pretty much the same thing.

However, given these two extremems, which do you think more likely?

Al Quida is not even concentrating their efforts on the US or the military any more - they are going after the civilians - the women and children, even.

It won't be long before the "normal" citizens don't take this shit anymore.

And they DO want a fair government.

So my vote was for fair election - but at a hefty cost - worth the price, mind you, but still a hefty cost.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[Darius11 12]

i am trying to be positive

I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

[PhillyKev 0]

I see you've taken the republican stance of identifying all dissidents in the middle east as AQ. I didn't know all shiite and sunni militia joined up.

[turtlespeed 226]

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I see you've taken the republican stance of identifying all dissidents in the middle east as AQ. I didn't know all shiite and sunni militia joined up.

Yep.

I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

[white_falcon 0]

Personally I am fed up with the whole Iraq issue. Wish we would have finished the job the first time when I was there.

I don't think truly we, America, can bring about lasting change in that part of the world, certainly not in this generation and probably not for 2 or 3. The average citizen MAY want peace but the culture is so screwed up (the way WE understand it) and those that MAY want peace are to damned SCARED to attempt to acquire it.

The only real lasting "solution" to the Iraqi problem is to turn the entire dam place into a glass bowl (read tac nuke) and that is not "feasable".

Sorry if I got off topic and hi-jacked your post in anyway, and don't ANYONE get the idea that I dont support the troops or even our government. This is just a bit of a rant from someone who has been there and lost friends in that god forsaken sand box.

Scott

[billvon 3,131]

>However, given these two extremems, which do you think more likely?

Neither one is going to happen; I'm pretty sure of that. Elections may happen later and the civil war won't be full-blown.

[billvon 3,131]

>Al Quida is not even concentrating their efforts on the US or the military
> any more - they are going after the civilians - the women and children,
> even.

You haven't heard of any soldiers being killed lately? It still happens with great regularity.

>It won't be long before the "normal" citizens don't take this shit anymore.

Which shit? We killed 13 men, women and children on Monday to prevent anyone from messing with one of our disabled vehicles. I agree, people may not take this shit forever, but they may rebel against different shit than you think. And the insurgent militias may be the way they do rebel.

>And they DO want a fair government.

So did the colonies of Great Britain. But we chose a government that wasn't really in line with what the King wanted, despite his sending a lot of troops to try to convince us otherwise.

[white_falcon 0]

all those friggin people want to do is kill SOMEONE. They dont care who. The US could pull out TODAY, turn the country completely over, and they would STILL be fighting.

[billvon 3,131]

>The US could pull out TODAY, turn the country completely over, and
>they would STILL be fighting.

Agreed. Or we could stay another 5 years, lose another 2000 troops - and they will still be fighting after 5 years.

[white_falcon 0]

its a conundrum. If we stay we are the bad guys, for staying, if we leave, we are the bad guys for leaving.

its lose lose for the US.

[billvon 3,131]

>If we stay we are the bad guys, for staying, if we leave, we are the bad guys for leaving.

Yep. There's no good way out of this quagmire; but then again, it is a quagmire of our own making. We can leave and allow the country to fall into chaos; the local warlords will take over and eventually a charismatic leader will rise, who you can bet will be ten times the tyrant that Saddam was. Or we can stay and watch US troops die as the insurgency builds. Who knows? Perhaps we'll get to Rhino's "glass fucking parking lot!" ideal, and the world will have a new genocide to deal with.

[SpeedRacer 1]

Quote

My prediction:

By January insurgents will be in control of many of the city centers. Iraqi police will be battling them constantly (or alternatively joining forces with them) - we will stay out of the way as much as possible, although we'll still be losing about 50 troops a month. There will be elections by next June, although the candidates will be hand-picked US appointees. The Iraqis will have al-Sadr and Sistani as their new heroes, and will be trying to ignore the conflicting demands of the local militias, police, interim government, and occupational authorities.

There won't be a full-blown civil war as we might imagine it. No one will take on the US directly. They will fight delaying actions, picking off one or two US soldiers at a time, then dispersing into the cities when we come in to get them. Since they will have support of the Iraqis, it will be impossible to find them.

Right wingers will claim victory time and time again, while left wingers will cite the body counts and failure of the new government to control the country.

In other words, not much will change.

my prediction is close to the same, but I think there will be January elections as scheduled, but there will be large numbers of Iraqis, such as Sadr's followers, and Baathists, who will not recognize the elections or the ensuing government as legitamate.

And yeah, probably the insurgency in general will continue at about the same level as it is now. But there will probably be some really big explosion of some sort just before or during the elections.

Speed Racer
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[Botellines 0]

I think the question is if Irak will ever be pacified by the U.S and if the cost will be acceptable under international standards. If not, the best for the U.S and for the rest of the world would be to pull out from Irak.
Every day that passes more U.S soldiers die, more innocent civilians die, and more unhappy muslims get recruited by al-quaeda.
While the U.S is wasting time, resources and human lives in Irak, chances are that al-quaeda is planning the next attack on your homeland from Europe or South America, or even from inside U.S. using the oportunity that most of your troops are somewhere else.

[Jib 0]

I don't think the US can pull out of Iraq. We would have created and left a mess and more importantly, those who helped out at the mercy of the insurgents.

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the depth of his depravity sickens me.
-- Jerry Falwell, People v. Larry Flynt

[Botellines 0]

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I don't think the US can pull out of Iraq. We would have created and left a mess

Fair enough, so the U.S is trying to fix the mess. Now honestly, is the U.S fixing the mess or is it making a bigger one? 1 year after the war and there is still chaos. Do you honestley think that Irak will ever be pacified with U.S intervention. It would be better to handle it over to the U.N.

Quote

and more importantly, those who helped out at the mercy of the insurgents.

They will be at the mercy of the insurgents even if Irak is pacified. They will retaliate anyway. I have an idea, what about a green card for everyone (relatives) who helped you out? That would be the only feasible way to protect their lives.

[white_falcon 0]

It would be better to handle it over to the U.N.


Oh yea. Theres a GOOD Idea.

The friggin UN. Might as well send the "QUEER EYE FOR THE STRAIGHT GUY" troop in. The UN. What a bunch of ball-less wonders. Why the US is still a part I'll NEVER understand.

Scott

[white_falcon 0]

or even better yet, Let's send in the French.

[christelsabine 1]

Quote

The friggin UN. Might as well send the "QUEER EYE FOR THE STRAIGHT GUY" troop in. The UN. What a bunch of ball-less wonders. Why the US is still a part I'll NEVER understand.

Me too.

There are people which use to think more ahead than just from the forehead to their tip of the nose. I smell a rat:
You perhaps do not belong to this race.
You are right:

I agree to your statement: "(You) I'll NEVER understand".

I'm sure of that.

dudeist skydiver # 3105

[Frenchy68 0]

or even better yet, Let's send in the French.
***
Uh...No, thank you. We'll pass on that one. But thanks for the thought.

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

I can see someone trying to kill the candidates in the election. Very similar to the attempt on the Afghan President this morning.

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[crozby 0]

From the BBC:

US report predicts gloom in Iraq

The best Iraqis can hope for is tenuous stability, the report says
US officials have acknowledged the existence of a secret intelligence report on Iraq offering gloomy predictions for the country's future.
The report - a compilation of assessments by intelligence agencies - puts forward three possible scenarios in Iraq by the end of 2005.

They range from what the report calls tenuous stability to political fragmentation and civil war. It was prepared for President Bush before a recent escalation of violence.

The BBC's Nick Childs at the Pentagon says the report is at odds with the more upbeat public statements which continue to emerge from the Bush administration.

Many analysts in Washington are now raising doubts about whether it is realistic to plan for an election in Iraq in January, our correspondent says.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3664136.stm