jdhill 0 #26 September 10, 2004 Here are the latest numbers I've seen... OH - B - 46% K - 48% (donward trend for bush) NC - B - 53% K - 43% (upward trend for bush) WV - B - 46% K - 41% (no trend noted) OH was leaning Kerry a few weeks ago... Now its leaning Bush... JAll that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. - Edmund Burke Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #27 September 10, 2004 QuoteQuoteExcept for OH, NC, and WV where Bush is dropping. Hmm - so that would be what only 6% of the US? Who carea about %, it's 48 electoral votes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #28 September 10, 2004 Where are your numbers from? Survey USA shows Bush had 9% lead a couple weeks ago, now down to 3%. NC was 52 - 45 Bush in Aug., now 50 - 46. And Zogby had VA with 49-45 Bush in Aug., now 50-47. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdhill 0 #29 September 10, 2004 QuoteWhere are your numbers from? Rasmussen and tripias which is a conglomeration of a number of polling sources... In early August, both OH and WV were leaning Kerry, OH by 1% and WV by 3.5% JAll that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. - Edmund Burke Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turtlespeed 226 #30 September 10, 2004 QuoteQuoteQuoteExcept for OH, NC, and WV where Bush is dropping. Hmm - so that would be what only 6% of the US? Who carea about %, it's 48 electoral votes. I was remarking on how you were trying to put a negative spin on his comment.I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #31 September 10, 2004 Looking at your sources now. Rasmussen shows 48-46 in favor of KERRY. And tripias isn't a compilation of polls, they use a different source every week. If you want to be accurate, you can't compare one pollster to another from one week to the next. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #32 September 10, 2004 QuoteI was remarking on how you were trying to put a negative spin on his comment. How is disputing a generalization with specific facts spinning? In fact, it's pretty much the opposite. You're weird. i hear you lick windows. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdhill 0 #33 September 10, 2004 QuoteRasmussen shows 48-46 in favor of KERRY Not if you look at the electoral college poll... it is 213 to 175 in favor of Bush... nationwide polls don't mean shit when it come to who's going to be president... the state by state stuff is all that matters. If you want to look at nationwide polls look at pollingreport.com, where they have all the bitg ones on the front page, Bush is ahead in all of them. JAll that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. - Edmund Burke Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #34 September 10, 2004 I'm talking about OH. You said Rasmussen showed Kerry was leading Bush in OH and now is not. But Rasmussen shows Kerry in the lead as of today. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdhill 0 #35 September 10, 2004 OK... I see where I got my numbers, and you're right... Kerry is ahead on Ras... (I've edited my original numbers on the other post) But I think you have to look at a variety of polls to get a feel for an overall trend... JAll that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. - Edmund Burke Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,148 #36 September 10, 2004 QuoteOK... I see where I got my numbers, and you're right... Kerry is ahead on Ras... (I've edited my original numbers on the other post) But I think you have to look at a variety of polls to get a feel for an overall trend... J Jeez - why don't you guys wait 6 more weeks before bothering to look at opinion polls?... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #37 September 10, 2004 QuoteBut I think you have to look at a variety of polls to get a feel for an overall trend... You have to look at a variety of polls to get a more accurate single point in time assessment. But lookign at a variety of polls over varying time frames is fruitless. As far as trends go, I wouldn't consider 1-2 pt. jumps back and forth no matter what the source to indicate any kind of trend. Not trying to blast you here. Just think that these polls aren't going to mean much of anything until mid October at the earliest. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdhill 0 #38 September 10, 2004 But the Kerry camp has been throwing poll numbers around since beofer the DNC... now that the polls are going the other way you want to wait for the election? JAll that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. - Edmund Burke Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #39 September 10, 2004 I haven't. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,148 #40 September 11, 2004 QuoteBut the Kerry camp has been throwing poll numbers around since beofer the DNC J I haven't.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #41 September 20, 2004 Latest polls will be from the electoral college will be posted today at Rasmussen at 1700 EST. Will be interested since they haven't updated them since the 6th. Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #42 September 21, 2004 ----------Update---------- 9-20-04 Bush - 213 Flipper - 189 Toss-up states (those within 5%) are..... Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #43 September 21, 2004 Quote----------Update---------- Bush - 213 Flipper - 189 So Bush remains flatlined at 213, while Kerry regained 14. IOW, not a heck of a lot has changed in a measurable way. The people who live in those remaining states are going to hate watching live TV the next 2 months, aren't they? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #44 September 28, 2004 Latest update. 9-28-04 Bush - 213 Flipper - 196 9-24-04 Bush - 213 Flipper - 211 Current Toss Up States (those within 5%) are..... Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #45 September 30, 2004 Latest update 9-29-04 Bush - 213 Kerry - 186 9-28-04 Bush - 213 Kerry - 196 Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #46 September 30, 2004 Interesting thing about these numbers is that they are based on so called "likely voters". The Gallup poll out yesterday showed Kerry over Bush by more than 5% in PA and OH for "registered voters" But losing by a couple % in each for "likely voters". Get out the vote campaigns are going to have a big influence. Personally, tonight I'll be hitting the streets courtesy of Moveon to get registered democrats motivated to hit the ballot box. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #47 September 30, 2004 QuoteInteresting thing about these numbers is that they are based on so called "likely voters". The Gallup poll out yesterday showed Kerry over Bush by more than 5% in PA and OH for "registered voters" But losing by a couple % in each for "likely voters". What I find most interesting is that Bush hasn't moved at all in what, 6 weeks, using their criteria for locking in a state. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdhill 0 #48 September 30, 2004 QuoteWhat I find most interesting is that Bush hasn't moved at all in what, 6 weeks, using their criteria for locking in a state. And Kerry has only lost states to the toss-up category in the last 3 weeks... To the observation of the Registered Voter polling numbers vs. Likey Voters... LV numbers are generally considered to be more reliable than RV numbers... It is still a tight race in sveral states, and there are enough toss-up states to take it either way... JAll that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. - Edmund Burke Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #49 September 30, 2004 QuoteLV numbers are generally considered to be more reliable than RV numbers... It is still a tight race in sveral states, True, but get out the vote campaigns can be very effective. Still too close to call, but what I'm saying is that the biggest influence on which way those states go won't be the debates or any ads between now and the election. It will be whether or not the democrats can get their typically lower turnout to bump up. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #50 September 30, 2004 Whoa! Updated today and the lead opens up. 9-30-04 Bush - 213 Kerry - 169 9-29-04 Bush - 213 Kerry - 186 Toss up states are... Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
