Gas Prices

[TheAnvil 0]

A few random thoughts from a buzzing Anvil:

- I don't think gas prices will go down. Since the 60's, I can't think of a single commodity other than gasoline that hasn't risen with inflation. I think of this as sort of a correction in price that hasn't settled yet. Increased oil demand worldwide undoubtedly has something to do with it as well, but I am too buzzed to think about that right now.

- Gore supported higher gas prices in his book. Kerry is ticked off at high gas prices and blames it on GWB. Ironic.

- Instead of hybrid SUV's why not encourage diesel SUV's and biodiesel use?

- Hybrid SUVs are better than regular SUVs from a consumption perspective.

- If the demand worldwide for gasoline/oil increases, what will the eventual effect be? Agricultural based lubricants will probably become more and more lucrative an alternative. Interesting.

- TheAnvil needs to sleep now. Beers to all.

Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

[Gawain 0]

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- Instead of hybrid SUV's why not encourage diesel SUV's and biodiesel use?

- Hybrid SUVs are better than regular SUVs from a consumption perspective.

Biodiesel, regular diesel is not any more efficient to make than gasoline and from a retail perspective is just as expensive to buy, diesel is not cleaner to the environment (under current and future US regs) and would still be influenced just as much by commodity prices.

Hybrid SUVs haven't even made it into the market place yet, though Toyota has one coming out this fall. Hybrids are not the answer IMO.

Kerry supports higher gas prices too.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[TypicalFish 0]

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A few random thoughts from a buzzing Anvil:

- I don't think gas prices will go down. Since the 60's, I can't think of a single commodity other than gasoline that hasn't risen with inflation. I think of this as sort of a correction in price that hasn't settled yet. Increased oil demand worldwide undoubtedly has something to do with it as well, but I am too buzzed to think about that right now.

Interestingly in support of this, gas is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper in adjusted dollars than it was at the height of the 70's gas crunch.

But hey, we're Americans; we never see s#$% in the long term view...

"I gargle no man's balls..." ussfpa on SOCNET

[nathaniel 0]

In Great Britain they pay about the same figures on the gas pump, except its in GBP per Liter instead of Dollars per Gallon.

I think I'd take up bicycling before I paid $100 for a tank of gas. It'd certainly make fuel efficiency a more attractive proposition. Currently the extra cost of hybrid engines vs regular internal combustion is more than the amount you'd save on gas over the lifetime of the car for most people.

And somehow I sincerely doubt it's fuel efficiency concerns that dropped the sales of SUVs down 15% last year...

nathaniel

My advice is to do what your parents did; get a job, sir. The bums will always lose. Do you hear me, Lebowski?

[billvon 3,120]

>- I don't think gas prices will go down.

I think they will see a sharp decrease a few months before the election, per the Saudi's promise to Bush. But in the long term I believe you are correct. Increasing demand, decreasing supply - doesn't take a degree in economics to figure out that price trend.

>- Gore supported higher gas prices in his book. Kerry is ticked off at
> high gas prices and blames it on GWB. Ironic.

Yep. I have a feeling Gore would be waffling on his statements now if he were running.

>- Instead of hybrid SUV's why not encourage diesel SUV's and
> biodiesel use?

I think both have a place. Hybrids increase efficiency in any sort of vehicle while maintaining the same peak power (which is perceived as performance.) There's enough demand for diesel right now to make a big dent by going to biodiesel (trains, trucks.)

>- If the demand worldwide for gasoline/oil increases, what will the
> eventual effect be? Agricultural based lubricants will probably
> become more and more lucrative an alternative. Interesting.

Natural economics. Prices of energy, fertilizers, plastics, transportation etc will rise. Alternatives like tar sands, oil shales and methane clathrates will become profitable, and that will tend to stabilize prices at a higher level. As we start down the back slope of the Hubbert curve, prices will continue to rise slowly until the prices force consumption down and make other alternatives (like synthesized methane) available.

[billvon 3,120]

>Biodiesel, regular diesel is not any more efficient to make than
>gasoline . . .

Regular diesel - agreed. Biodiesel is a completely different process and is dependent on completely different factors than the petroleum fuels. Efficiency isn't really the issue here. You can have the most efficient process in the world, but if oil is $100 a barrel, any fuel made from it will be expensive. Likewise, if sunlight to biodiesel conversion is only 1% efficient - well, sunlight is still pretty cheap, and no one's going to get away with trying to sell it to us.

>diesel is not cleaner to the environment (under current and future US
> regs) and would still be influenced just as much by commodity prices.

Diesels under the EPA's new rules will be 95% cleaner than today's diesels. They won't be as clean as modern SULEV cars like the Prius, but they will be comparable to mid-90's gasoline cars in terms of pollutants. And that's just with today's technology. There are a lot of advantages to diesels.

Commodity price - agreed. But that's true of any bulk, fungible product.

>Hybrid SUVs haven't even made it into the market place yet, though
> Toyota has one coming out this fall. Hybrids are not the answer IMO.

They're a good stopgap, though. We are remarkably resistant to change, and hybrids represent an intermediate stepping stone to pure electric or alternate fuel vehicles, one that might give us another decade or so before we have to really bite the bullet and get away from oil as a primary energy source.

[AggieDave 6]

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one that might give us another decade or so before we have to really bite the bullet and get away from oil as a primary energy source.

I agree with you there, actually I see the US evolving away from gasoline in the next 25 years and I think it will take 25 years for it to actually become a majority of the market. What will that technology be? Well, I couldn't tell you, there are a few out there that may work, but I do agree with you that Hybrids are the next step in that evolution.

I have already stated that I would love for my next truck to be a hybrid, as long as I still have the power that even my non-diesel truck has, which isn't a whole lot when you think of it (roughly 300hp 375ft lbs of torque).



Odd notes:

Electric "cars" have been around for 100 years.

Some folks are developing steam powered "cars" as we speak. Steam powered "cars" were another turn of the century design that we're revisiting.

Who knows, maybe the ideals of the 1950s will come true and we will have some sort of nuke/steam transportation, be it large scale such as trains/buses or even "small scale" such as personal cars and such.

Eitherway, what we're living in, from 1970 until probably 25 years from now is historically significant that school children of the future will study and memorize events and people from this time. For a historian, its fairly exciting to see large significant history happening around us and wondering what the future will remember.

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[Gawain 0]

Overall, you and I agree.

What I'm seeing though is that most of the European automakers (who make a lot of diesel engines) have not bothered to "clean" their technology to the standards set by CARB (ultimately adopted by the rest of the US). Right now, in California, the only diesel auto that's legal to buy new is a VW TDI. Next year, it won't be sold here because VW isn't going to get that engine any cleaner.

The US automakers reserve their diesel technology to trucks which do not have to meet the same guidelines. Those are all very large, inefficient, fuel guzzling engines. Detroit doesn't know how to make a small diesel engine anymore. It took GM 25 years to make a reliable diesel engine for its own trucks.

I really think that we have regulated diesels out of feasibility for average consumers. Too bad too.

I would love to see diesel make a bigger comeback for the near term (as I would take that over a hybrid), until we "make the leap" to another energy source.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Kennedy 0]

Interesting listings and article at yahoo news
alternative_energy
and
veggie cars

(too long to quote the entire thing)

witty subliminal message
Guard your honor, let your reputation fall where it will, and outlast the bastards.
1*

[nacmacfeegle 0]

"only diesel auto that's legal to buy new is a VW TDI."

Thats the same TDI engine that Audi developed, so over here we can get the engine in a number of chassis variants, VW, Seat, and Audi, to name a few.
The TDi will also run unmodified on biodiesel and bio blends.
I get pretty good mileage from my Audi A4 with a 2.5TDi plant, running on a bio blend I get about a 5-10% improvement in both performance and eficiency.

I reckon we might see more diesel powered smaller vehicles, they are already pretty common over here in the likes of VW Golf, Borra, Audi's A2, and A3 cars, what you guys might class as compacts.

Conversions to gaseous fuel or dual fuel is something else I'm looking into as I can save about 50% on my fuel bill if I get the govt grant to run the conversion. And the technology is available off the shelf, locally.

Its not all about hybrids.
>edit to include a response to my old mate AggieD.<"Who knows, maybe the ideals of the 1950s will come true and we will have some sort of nuke/steam transportation, be it large scale such as trains/buses or even "small scale" such as personal cars and such."
Aggs, much of Europe already has electric based rail systems, they work pretty good. I reckon both the UK and the US could learn heaps from mainland Europe's integrated public transport system. The miss timed genius of Clive Sinclair gave us the C5 tricycle which were an eccentric novelty a while back, maybe we'll see them make a comeback. Although I can't really see you trading in your truck for one.

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He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson

[Gawain 0]

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"only diesel auto that's legal to buy new is a VW TDI."

Thats the same TDI engine that Audi developed,

VW and Audi are one-in-the-same. In the US, the TDI runs 1.9L and 90bhp. VW was thinking of brining their V-10 diesel for the Toureg, but I bet they're giving it second thoughts.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nacmacfeegle 0]

Over here the 1.9 and the 2.5 have been superceded by the much more powerful and more efficient modern units. EG the 1.9 comes in 110, 115, and 130 BHP, the new V6 2.5 comes in 150 and 180 BHP variants. Torque is good, and figures of 50+ mpg are common (albeit our gallons are slightly larger, so marginally higher mpg figures are to be expected).
The 1.2 TDI is fitted to their A2, and has an excellent pedigree.
Smaller diesel powered cars, with good mpg and reasonable performance, are already with us.
I don't recall seeing too many smaller diesel cars in the US, maybe its one of those cultural differences? I reckon you may be seeing more of them soon. They gained popularity over here due to taxation differences on the fuel, and they sort of stayed after the differences were more or less nullified.

"VW and Audi are one-in-the-same." Aye but not everyone else reading knows that.
""Choosing a diesel is a doddle! The turbocharged 110 bhp Audi 1.9 (130bhp in current cars) is easiest on the pocket, achieving about 50mpg, but for real power try the 2.5 V6. With 150bhp (recently updated to 163bhp) and massive torque, it will hit 135mph and still average 40mpg. Used A6 diesels have often covered very high mileages but they're tough and I'd happily buy a 150,000 miler with a full history." Jason Dawe (of Top Gear fame) 18/05/2003 in the Sunday Times."
Jason's co-presenter, Jeremy Clarkson, hates diesels so this may be a bit of friendly banter.

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He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson

[Gawain 0]

All that you cite is good. The problem is that none of them are legal in the US because of environmental regulations. *sigh* The current Jetta TDI in the US will get roughly 650 miles per tank (about 50 mpg-highway).

Too bad too. VW had a diesel GTI in the UK, 150bhp and 210 lb/ft torque, and still run well over 40mpg. I would've bought it.

US auto makers haven't made a small diesel engine for nearly 20 years (and when they did, they weren't all that anyway, especially the old GM-V8s). VW will likely stop selling its diesels in the US. Mercedes isn't selling their diesels in the US anymore, Peugot is gone from the US market too, even BMW had a 524Ti for a short while. All had a healthy marketshare with diesel powerplants. The Mercedes 300D would run forever.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Unstable 9]

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Instead of hybrid SUV's why not encourage diesel SUV's and biodiesel use?

- Hybrid SUVs are better than regular SUVs from a consumption perspective.

Let's take a step back from this and look at it in another perspective - - - Diesel vs. Hybrid SUV's? Why not encourage the production and use of more efficient, smaller cars in the first place?? Hell, soccer moms don't need an 18-foot 4-wheel drive Ford to lug their Middle Schoolers to band practice & to carry all their groceries home! I am convinced that 95% of SUV owners don't use their vehicle to it's potential and could do just as well with a smaller vehicle. In 2002, the Ford Explorer accounted for over 75% of the Ford Motor Companies Gross Income - It just makes me sick....

My little Tangent Belongs in another thread, but it ties in easily. Let's start with the obvious here, people...

=========Shaun ==========

[nacmacfeegle 0]

"I am convinced that 95% of SUV owners don't use their vehicle to it's potential and could do just as well with a smaller vehicle."

I agree with you, I reckon most SUVs are sold to a fashion driven market.
Some may argue that SUVs are by definition tougher vehicles and afford their occupants a higher probability of survival over more compact cars, I'm unconvinced on this.

I think I recall a statistic that most (something like 70% but I'm firing from the hip on the actual statistics) UK market Land Rover Discoveries are sold to people within the circle of the M25 (a highway circling London). IE an urban marketplace, why do people need a big beastie in town? Some may be offroad enthusiasts, but not all of them?
Besides SUVs are bad for hitting kids.

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He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson

[PhillyKev 0]

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Gore supported higher gas prices in his book. Kerry is ticked off at high gas prices and blames it on GWB. Ironic.

What's ironic about that? Did I miss the speech when Kerry declared he was running on the Gore platform?

[kallend 2,150]

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Gore supported higher gas prices in his book. Kerry is ticked off at high gas prices and blames it on GWB. Ironic.

What's ironic about that? Did I miss the speech when Kerry declared he was running on the Gore platform?

I think higher taxes on gas are a smart idea for the following reasons:

1. Higher prices will encourage reduced consumption, which leads to...

2. Reduced dependence on supplies from an unstable region.

3. The money goes to the US and the states, not the Saudis, and should be used to support lowering of other taxes or research on alternative fuels or more efficient vehicles. (Although the venal politicians will find something else).

4. Allows a cushion agains price fluctuations like we're seeing today. Price uncertainty is a bigger problem than the actual price itself .

5. Can be planned and announced ahead of time, so consumers and businesses have time to adjust rather than being shocked.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[storm1977 0]

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3. The money goes to the US and the states, not the Saudis, and should be used to support lowering of other taxes

HOLY SHIT did I hear that right.... A liberal wanting to lower taxes????????

Oh wait.... correction, no, he wants to raise them in one place, and then lower them less in another to have a net gain of higher taxes.

Kallend... Here is the problem with raising taxes on gas. Who is going to feel it most? THe poor guy who drives 35 miles each way to work everyday making minimum wage or the guy making 100K + driving his SUV 50 miles each way to work every day?

THE POOR GUY THAT ALREADY CAN"T AFFORD IT.
Now, I am a capitalist and don't really care about the little guy, but, I know you in truth must be opposed to your own plan.

Chris

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[kallend 2,150]

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3. The money goes to the US and the states, not the Saudis, and should be used to support lowering of other taxes

HOLY SHIT did I hear that right.... A liberal wanting to lower taxes????????

Oh wait.... correction, no, he wants to raise them in one place, and then lower them less in another to have a net gain of higher taxes.

Kallend... Here is the problem with raising taxes on gas. Who is going to feel it most? THe poor guy who drives 35 miles each way to work everyday making minimum wage or the guy making 100K + driving his SUV 50 miles each way to work every day?

THE POOR GUY THAT ALREADY CAN"T AFFORD IT.
Now, I am a capitalist and don't really care about the little guy, but, I know you in truth must be opposed to your own plan.

Chris

Right now the poor guy is paying anyway, and the $$ are going abroad instead of staying here.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[AggieDave 6]

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VW and Audi are one-in-the-same

Yup and that's how VW was ruined when in 1979 they left the air-cooled market. Now all they have are watercooled pieces of shit for cars. There's no beauty in it, like the Type 3 varients, the Karmen Ghia, they Type2 safari window. All of those beautiful automobiles , now lost forever to manufacturing because of Audi.

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[billvon 3,120]

>THe poor guy who drives 35 miles each way to work everyday making
> minimum wage or the guy making 100K + driving his SUV 50 miles
> each way to work every day?

The poor guy is likely already driving a 35mpg car, because CAFE laws cause those cars to be sold very cheaply. Thus they affect him less than they affect SUV drivers (although they do affect him to an extent.)

[Gawain 0]

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VW and Audi are one-in-the-same

Yup and that's how VW was ruined when in 1979 they left the air-cooled market. Now all they have are watercooled pieces of shit for cars. There's no beauty in it, like the Type 3 varients, the Karmen Ghia, they Type2 safari window. All of those beautiful automobiles , now lost forever to manufacturing because of Audi.

I'll agree and disagree with you at the same time on that. Their air-cooled engines were simple, and easy to fix, but can't hold a candle next to the newer engines. I got to talk to an engineer from VW/Audi once and asked him about aftermarket tuning of the 1.8T engine (common in the Golf, Beetle, Jetta and Passat, A3, A4). He told me that he'd been working for VW for 28 years and that the 1.8T engine was bar none "...the best engine that VW ever built. The design can handle aftermarket tuning and boosting stresses well beyond it's stock 180-225bhp and ultimately generate over 300bhp if you have the money." VW is the parent compnay too.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[storm1977 0]

Bill the quest was posed not as the actuall amount they have to spend, but instead how much of ones salary (%) is used for transportation.

Increased gas taxes will hurt the lower class much more than the upper class or upper middle class... The groups driving the expensive SUVs.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty

[billvon 3,120]

>Increased gas taxes will hurt the lower class much more than the
> upper class or upper middle class... The groups driving the
> expensive SUVs.

Like I said, CAFE laws essentially require car manufacturers to sell their most fuel efficient cars for cheap. Thus poor people buy fuel efficient cars. If you are driving a 35mpg Honda Civic to and from work 10 miles away, and gas prices go up 30%, that's an extra $6 a month. Very few people in the US will be broken by an extra $6 a month. It's the price of a few beers during happy hour. To put it another way, it's less than an hour's work at minimum wage, or .5% of their income.

Now, if you're a rich guy driving a 15mpg SUV 45 miles from your house in the country into the city every day, that same 30% tax will hit you up for $72 more a month. Which is fine with me; if you want a big expensive car, be willing to pay for it.

[storm1977 0]

let's compare apples to apples even though we both know what the other is getting at:

They both drive 45miles total to work
poor guy gets 35mpg rich middle class guy gets 15mpg

poor guy makes $6.5/hr
Middle Class guy 50K/yr salary

poor guy grosses 260/wk
MC guy grosses 961/wk

poor spends 1.28 gallon/day @ $2/ gallon = $2.56
MC spends 3 gallon/day @ $2/ gallon = $6.00

Raise the price by 30% gas is now $2.60/gal

poor guy spends 3.28/day difference = $3.6/wk
Middle class spends 7.8/day difference = $9.0/wk


Difference for the poor guy is 1.38% of his gross income.
Difference for the MC guy is .93% of his gross income.


Your are right Bill, it is not much, but if you are the guy making minimum wage every penny counts.

Shit I have a houshold income of 90K a year and I can't even buy a starter home where I live and the ONLY debts I have are student loans... no Credit card bills.

Here in NY the average rental prive for a 1bdrm apt in long island is $1050/month. Trust me every penny counts.

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Sometimes it is more important to protect LIFE than Liberty