Bush Tax Cut helps Economy

[Gawain 0]

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The US economy is powered primarily by the consumer, nearly 70% of it. The most significant factor of 3Q03 is not the overall growth of the GDP, in my opinion. Rather, it was the 11+% increase in capital spending/durable goods by businesses. That means the beginning of job growth. In 2Q03, business spending was flat, but defense spending allowed growth over 3%. In the third quarter, it was the exact opposite. Defense spending was flat, business investment way up.

As a person that recently lost his job of 29 years because the company is going through a bad time, I kinda, gotta, disagree about how business investment and job creation is on the way up.

That statistic was there amidst all the relevant press coverage of 3Q03 report.

I can't speak to your company's good times or bad times (since I don't know who you worked for), but first time filings for unemployment were on the decline as of 10/30/03, which is also in the shadow of 9/03 employment report showed a net gain in jobs. I'm not trying to belittle your situation, I've been there, unfortunately we, as individuals, are not a broad economic indicator.

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/031030/0900001034_1.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031003/markets_stocks_23.html

Meanwhile, major players in the economy are reporting better than expected growth in their sectors: Archer Daniels Midland, ChevronTexaco, Kellogg... On top of that, investors are pouring money into the market, Mutuals took in over $17B in Sept.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[TaeKwonDoDo 0]

More positive news:

http://www.investors.com/editorial/general.asp?v=11/4

and

http://www.investors.com/editorial/general01.asp?v=11/4

(these should be in the public section of IBD - if not let me know and I will post the whole article).

- Jeff

"That's not flying, it's falling with style."

[skydyvr 0]

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Naw -- look, just because Walter Cronkite and Andy Rooney admit the media has a decidedly liberal bias doesn't mean anything.

Source? I mean, give me the -EXACT- quote, because that's certainly not what Cronkite just said on page 8 of the November 3 issue of TIME Magazine.

The very interview you mention is quote enough . . . Cronkite's answers sound like a soft-selling of his own previous commentary, but what he said before is documented well enough right there to substantiate my original claim.

. . =(_8^(1)

[rehmwa 2]

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we, as individuals, are not a broad economic indicator.

Hey, someone has been studying his statistics (in a forum where people quote stats, but not statistics, it's refreshing).

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[quade 4]

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Cronkite's answers sound like a soft-selling of his own previous commentary, but what he said before is documented well enough right there to substantiate my original claim.

I guess The Rock Man was right, "You see what you want to see and you hear what you want to hear."

I read the same material differently and it certainly didn't look like any admission of media bias to me.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[billvon 3,120]

>More positive news:

Agree there's some positive news, but the news isn't all good:

From AP:

Job Cuts Announced by U.S. Corporations More Than Double in October
Nov 4, 2003

NEW YORK (AP) - Job cuts announced by U.S. companies more than doubled in October from the previous month, providing more evidence that the nation's economy is in a period of jobless expansion, according to a report from an outplacement firm.
Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said Tuesday that in October companies announced plans to eliminate 171,874 positions, compared with 76,506 jobs in September. It was the highest monthly level since October 2002, when 176,010 job cuts were announced.

. . . .

(the one bright spot:)
He added that companies' increasing productivity has made it easier for them to further delay hiring plans. The migration of jobs offshore as well as increasing consolidation also have stunted job growth.

[TheAnvil 0]

Unemployment has always been the lagging indicator.

Odd that those screaming about unemployment are those least concerned about illegal immigration. What do those illegal immigrants do when the cross the border? They work. And damned hard too. They take jobs that many think they are 'too good for'.

Also odd that those screaming about unemployment are the ones in the hip pockets of the unions. Unions INCREASE labor costs, ie. make it profitable to send the jobs overseas.

Extremely odd that those screaming about unemployment don't point out to their constituents that historically, unemployment has been the lagging indicator with regards to economic recovery.

An Anvil tangent:

I think that we've got ourselves an artificial class of sorts here in America - as a result of greed mainly. Those who desire a nice white collar lifestyle, have gone to college and incurred enormous debt and now have no job skills whatsoever. They're 'too good' to work a service/factory job or work in the fields (at least in their own minds they're too good) but not capable of contributing to the corporate bottom line. This class is the result of greed on the part of colleges - letting people in and inventing majors for them so they won't flunk out and giving them degrees in fields that mean nothing, thereby reducing the meaning of a bachelor's degree in the process.

Economy is on the up. I look for unemployment to decrease in mid-Jan/Feb. Vinny guess.

Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

[billvon 3,120]

>Unemployment has always been the lagging indicator.

I agree. I was partly answering the post that said:

>>It's all about Friday, November 7th. That's the October employment
>> report. Indicators are that it will be an acceleration of September's
>> figures. This lagging indicator will make or break our economy in
>> 2004.

I think it may be lagging a bit more than people think. The economy is still on track for an eventual recovery; it may just take some time between, say, stock market indices moving upwards and an employment upswing.

>Odd that those screaming about unemployment are those least
>concerned about illegal immigration.

If you pick up any industry trade magazine (Wireless Communications, EE Times, Design News etc) you'll see they are often one in the same. Although they go off on H1B visa limits more often than illegal immigrants.

>This class is the result of greed on the part of colleges - letting
> people in and inventing majors for them so they won't flunk out and
> giving them degrees in fields that mean nothing, thereby reducing
> the meaning of a bachelor's degree in the process.

I don't think this is anything new. I think most employers can tell the difference between a BSEE from Georgia Tech and a degree in interpretational herbology from Joe's Discount School of Education. Heck, if anything I think people should take whatever they want to in college, based on what they want to do afterwards. Want to make loads of money? Get a degree in computer science and an MBA. Want to open a brewery? Get a bachelor's in fermentation science, food science or microbiology. Want to meet a guy, get married and have him support you? You have a much wider range of options. The freedom to succeed in the US is also the freedom to fail; it always has been.

[bodypilot90 0]

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Hardly. There's no more reason to think the second tax cut led to a rising economy then there is to think that the first tax cut led to the crappy economy we're just getting out of.

of course 9/11 didn't have anything to do with it. Do you honestly think more taxes are good for the economy? You voted for carter right?

[bodypilot90 0]

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Why worry about the budget, or our country's reputation, or anything of any lasting importance? By the time everyone figures out that our policies have been horrible, some other slob will be in office and our children will have to pay for everything.

don't worry we will be able to gain it all back now that the clintons are gone

[billvon 3,120]

>Do you honestly think more taxes are good for the economy? You
>voted for carter right?

And do you honestly think the WPA had nothing to do with ending the great depression of the 1930's?

[mikkey 0]

If I can make a couple of points:

1) Nobody has really claimed that the Bush Tax cut (combined with record low interest rates) would not spur an increase in consumption, which again would lead to improved growth.

2) The question/criticism is: a) Is this the most effective way to regain growth and b) is it socially balanced.

Re. a) Providing large unfunded tax cuts that are skewed towards the top 10% of income earners is not the most effective way. Firstly, you are creating a huge deficit that needs to be paid at some stage and will in the short to medium term limit the economic "instruments" at hand. There are different economic "levers" that could have been used that would have cost less (less deficit). The unemployment in the US is still comparably high, and the question is, if it is partly caused by the high-income earners spending the money on products that do not create jobs (e.g. imported luxury goods). I do not have any data on this but this could be an explanation.

Re. b) The Tax cuts are skewed towards the highest incomes and some people might think that is not a balanced approach. Especially if the resulting budget deficit leads to cut in government spending on social programs that in turn will hit the lower income families.

So while there is no doubt the measures will have some effect (difficult to say how much is tax cut and how much is low interest rate) – a lot of people (and a lot of economists) are criticizing the Bush administration because of the above issues.

---------------------------------------------------------
When people look like ants - pull. When ants look like people - pray.

[TheAnvil 0]

How the hell did you know I'm a Ramblin' Wreck? Or is that pure coincidence that you used that analogy? Don't remember if I ever posted that. Kudos to you if I did and you remembered dude. That's pretty cool.

Anyway, I agree with you that people should major in what they want to in college. But along the lines of my Anvil tangent, I STILL think that way too many people are going to college and that the value of the bachelor's degree has been lessened as a result. In technical fields - not so much, but look at some of the degrees offered around the country - even at my beloved GaTech now - and you'll see what I mean. I've been at collegiate job fairs and was utterly AMAZED at the degrees some people had earned.

I think a true weak point in the economy is the massive debt some of these folks rack up without job skills that command a salary necessary to pay off those loans. Add credit card debt and car loans and white collar lifestyle spending and look what you have - an indebted person with high likelihood of being laid off with no chance in HELL of paying off anything. Same goes for those let into schools under reduced standards for AA. Big loans with little in the way of job skills - for the most part.

Go Jackets!

Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

[kallend 2,151]

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Same goes for those let into schools under reduced standards for AA.

That's not new, it's how Bush got into Yale.

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Big loans with little in the way of job skills - for the most part.

Of course, he didn't have a loan to pay off, but the rest fits.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[jfields 0]

Ouch!

[skydyvr 0]

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Cronkite's answers sound like a soft-selling of his own previous commentary, but what he said before is documented well enough right there to substantiate my original claim.

I guess The Rock Man was right, "You see what you want to see and you hear what you want to hear."

I read the same material differently and it certainly didn't look like any admission of media bias to me.

LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA

. . =(_8^(1)