Guest #1 March 21, 2004 From James F. Dunnigan's Strategy Page: IRAQ: What a Difference a Year Makes March 19, 2004: In the past year, some dozen suicide bombing attacks in Iraq have killed nearly 700 people. By comparison, such attacks have killed 474 people in Israel since late 2000. A smaller number of attacks in Saudi Arabia has turned the Saudis against al Qaeda, and the same thing has happened in Iraq. Most of the suicide bombing victims in Iraq have been Iraqi. But the Iraqis put these attacks in perspective, rating them as a very minor concern (compared to getting a job or street crime). Today is the first anniversary of the coalition invasion of Iraq. Saddam Hussein in is in prison awaiting trial, most Iraqis feel they are better off than last year and optimistic about the future. The United States continues to be free of terrorist attacks, the last one being on September 11, 2001. As a result of the Iraqi invasion, the Middle East now has a second country (besides Israel) that is actually going to try democracy. Libya and Iran have backed off on their plans to build nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia is now actively in the anti-terrorism camp and many Arabs are questioning long held beliefs about what is wrong with the Arab world. Examination of captured Iraqi documents revealed that Saddam Hussein stole more than ten billion dollars from funds meant to buy food and medicine for Iraqis. United Nations officials, as well as government officials in neighboring nations, and in Europe, made the scam possible. Interestingly, all of these parties opposed the invasion of Iraq. (my emphasis - mh) mh ."The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cudlo 0 #2 March 21, 2004 Very nice year at a glance. Im not exactly sure how its going to be debated but this is gonna get ugly when the die hard liberals get here. _________________________________________ "People demand freedom of speech to make up for the freedom of thought which they avoid." - Kierkegaard Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
damion75 0 #3 March 21, 2004 Quote But the Iraqis put these attacks in perspective, rating them as a very minor concern (compared to getting a job or street crime). We had a British reporter interview a family in Basrah yesterday and all four family members had a different perspective. Most said that they were happier but the mother was very worried about the bombings. Quote Saudi Arabia is now actively in the anti-terrorism camp I am slightly less convinced that this is true at an individual level. I'm sure that the Saudi government believe it. Quote Interestingly, all of these parties opposed the invasion of Iraq So did the French... could that be anything to do with the oil contracts that they had secured from Saddam to use as soon as the embargos ended...? Hmmm*************** Not one shred of evidence supports the theory that life is serious - look at the platypus. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,148 #4 March 21, 2004 Is a guy who's expertise is in wargames more credible than Richard Clark and Paul O'Niell, who worked inthe White House? I'm sure Iraqis are better off than a year ago. I strongly suspect that if the USA invaded: Sierra Leone, Congo, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Colombia, PRC, N. Korea, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Myanmar... and installed democratic governments, that (apart from the invitable casualties) the people in those countries would also be better off in the long run .... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
freeflir29 0 #5 March 21, 2004 Uuuuhhh.....Professor.........Colombia ALREADY HAS a democratic government. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest #6 March 22, 2004 Quote Is a guy who's expertise is in wargames more credible than Richard Clark and Paul O'Niell, who worked inthe White House? I happen to think so, and I believe you would as well if you were to read any of his works, such as -- "How to Make War" "A Quick And Dirty Guide to War" "Dirty Little Secrets" (various venues and theaters) Dunnigan's a wargamer, it's true, but he brings an eye to his analysis that is both razor-cold and sharp, and warm and human at the same time. Back in GW1, many armchair generals were predicting thousands of US deaths. Dunnigan predicted "About 100". Actual combat deaths (not counting other casualties) - 104. The first chapter of Dunnigan's "How to Make War" (first published in 1982) is titled "How to Be An Effective Armchair General". So in conclusion, I respect Dunnigan's analysis for two reasons: first, that it's based on cold hard facts, not speculation, and second, that when it comes to analysizing the indeterminate fators, such as human factors, he considers human nature and cultures more than he does history, and he does so with a very cynical eye. When it comes to determining what the bad guys are thinking, Dunnigan and his crew are like an FBI profiling unit - they get inside the heads of the players, and report about it. IMHO, Dunnigan is a national treasure, but he'll never be on the NSC staff - truth is the first casualty of politics - Dunnigan always tells it like it really is, which would not always be what his masters want to hear. Bobby Ray Inman is another name I'll put out there.... mh ."The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
