Does the risk eventually catch up to everyone?

[Skydivesg 7]

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Some people want to be swoopers and other things (if thats you I am not making fun or looking down on you for that decision, it obviously takes great skill) I, however, I have chosen for my focus to be safety.

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I give kudos to you for thinking about safety but someday as you get more experience and more comfortable in our sport you will likely move on to things with more risk. (larger formations, vertical moves, wing suits and maybe even swooping)

People can be swoopers and still mitigate a lot of the added risk. I love swooping but I choose when and where to do it.

When I'm at my home DZ I swoop on most of my jumps but when I go to other DZs I pull back dramatically especially when there is more traffic in the air. When I do swoop at other DZs I pick landing areas that are less congested. Yes, even when it means a longer walk. I swoop because I enjoy it. I swoop for me, not for the crowd. Besides there is always someone better than me to "wow the crowd".

I also pick the brains of people I trust to have a higher knowledge of swooping.

As you grow in this sport, know this: being safe and managing risk is about making choices, finding mentors and making as many jumps as you possibly can. Mentors do not have to be instructors they just have to be knowledgeable and have the willingness to spread that wealth.

Good luck and Be Safe

Be the canopy pilot you want that other guy to be.

[Skydivesg 7]

Do you know if the FAI stats include deaths due to aircraft rides to altitude or only those who successfully stepped outside the aircraft?

Be the canopy pilot you want that other guy to be.

[pchapman 279]

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What is amazing with your approach for 100,000 jumps is that you get the following result ie. 0.63 or probability of 63% to be killed.
If you use my method we get: E(X) = pn = (1/100,000) x 100,000 = 1 (probability of 1) or a probability of 100% to get killed while doing 100,000 jumps which is more normal mathematically speaking

Yeah the simple approximation method only works when dealing with low probabilities, and few enough repetitions that the cumulative probability stays low.

So it is close enough if one looks at 2000 jumps and 1/100k jumps having the bad event happening.

But it doesn't work for your example, as you showed, for 100,000 jumps because it gives a 100% chance of the bad event happening. (And 200% for 200,000 jumps...)

Nor does it work for coin tosses, where we're talking about large chances of a chosen event happening. After two coin tosses, the chance of getting heads at least once clearly isn't .5 * 2 = 100%.

So there are plenty of cases where one has to use the proper way to calculate the theoretical risk, e.g., using the chance of staying alive per jump to the power of the number of jumps = the chance to live through every jump.



For some more fun philosophy of risk, one can think about the risk per participant per year. If you normally jump 100 times a year, what do you do if one year you can only make 10 jumps. Do you figure you can pull low and hook it irresponsibly, because you can be 10 times more dangerous per jump and still maintain your comfortable average risk per year?
Clearly a bit silly. But there are times we do things where we may decide that "once is enough" or "That was fun but I don't think I'll do it on a regular basis".

[erdnarob 1]

I believe jump aircraft accidents are not included in the statistics given because they are not directly related with skydiving accident.

Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.

[richard1954 0]

Interesting. As a biker, I often look at riding and skydiving in the same way.

Experience counts. Experience queers the statistics.

In riding, you're more likely to be killed in your first year of riding, if you haven't taken a safety course, because you didn't learn or master evasive maneuvers, or you didn't wear safety gear.

It seems to have little to do with how visible or loud you are, what kind of bike you're riding, the weather conditions, or the mechanical soundness of your equipment.

But it seems to have everything to do with your training, state of mind, maturity, and ability to cope accurately with emergencies.

To survive biking, ride smart and know how to handle an emergency; make the right decision and know how to handle your equipment.

I think that one famous European study cited as the single most common cause of motorcycle accidents (all else being equal, and discounting deaths from no helmets) was the biker's inability to execute a fairly simple evasive maneuver. A nice swerve, if you will.

I'd liken that to coping with a canopy malfuntion and doing the right thing early enough. I'd figure doing it right is due to training, maturity, the right state of mind. Know how to cut away, but know when to. Know your altitude, etc. Keep aware. Expect the worst and prepare for it.

And while you're at it, have fun. I don't care particularly what the statistics "say." They don't describe me, and they aren't supposed to. They are useful for insurance companies to spread "risk" across groups. That's all. No member of the group IS The Group.

[erdnarob 1]

Agree with you. You just provided an exemple showing the complexity of probabilities calculations and how some formulas can lead to weird results. As you said the formula I used seems only good for small numbers. I was right to be doubtful. Thanks for the exchange of info.

Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.

[kuai43 7]

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For some more fun philosophy of risk, one can think about the risk per participant per year. If you normally jump 100 times a year, what do you do if one year you can only make 10 jumps. Do you figure you can pull low and hook it irresponsibly, because you can be 10 times more dangerous per jump and still maintain your comfortable average risk per year?

For some more math fun, exactly how do you calculate "10 times more dangerous"? I want to be sure I don't stop at 9 times and leave some "fun" on the table

Every fight is a food fight if you're a cannibal

Goodness is something to be chosen. When a man cannot choose, he ceases to be a man. - Anthony Burgess

[antonija 0]

I still see lots of people trying to use statistics to predict outcome of a single event (coin flip, skydiving accident, etc.). It doesn't work that way.

When I said "statistics will catch up with everyone" I meant just that: everyone. This does not mean you (or me or that guy I saw last weekend), but every single one of us. Obviously we won't all die in our career, but thats not what statistics says... It says that every 100k jump one of us will die. And that goes for all of us, everyone of us.
We all (or most of us) do our best to increase our chances of surviving next jump, but there is always some one who packed in a hurry because he was late for load, some one who didn't get reserve repacked because "it should still work few days overdue", some one who will jump canopy too small for his skills, some one who will attempt swoop in crowded area, etc. It will probably one of these that will end up as "significant individual" in this sad statistics, but this does not change the fact that we are all included in it (and thus it catches up with us as a group).

I understand the need for conformity. Without a concise set of rules to follow we would probably all have to resort to common sense. -David Thorne

[The111 1]

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It says that every 100k jump one of us will die.

Nope, not even that. It says that every 100k jump one of us did die. (or whatever the # may be)

We're not coins or cards. When sport parachuting first came into existence, most fatalities, as I understand it, were a result of gear failure. For someone back then to take those statistics and apply them to the future would have been silly, and we know that today, because today most fatalities are not a result of gear failure.

What happened yesterday will only repeat tomorrow if the gear doesn't change, the education doesn't change, and our general approach to safety doesn't change. Check the fatality stats, they vary quite a bit every year. Now flip a coin 100,000 times a year, and your stats will be nearly identical year to year, because the coin never changes and the coin never knows what it's doing. Whether you are looking at one skydiver or 10,000, using statistics to determine future probabilities is futile. Using statistics to minimize future incidents, on the other hand, is exactly what we need to do. Notice a lot of people dying from canopy collisions? You have two possible interpretations.

(1) "Gee, the probability of dying from a canopy collision went up this year! I guess I'm statistically more at risk now!"

(2) "Man, people have not been paying attention to their surroundings lately. I am going to pay MORE attention while under canopy, to minimize my own risk, and also spread the word to others to pay more attention also."

The "risk" hasn't really changed at all, but there have been a lot of bad incidents lately all because of human error. I don't think I'm more at risk now than I was earlier, and I don't think my "probabilities" have changed, even though the statistics may have.

www.WingsuitPhotos.com

[The111 1]

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some one who didn't get reserve repacked because "it should still work few days overdue"

Are you implying that this actually would make a difference? I am not promoting the disregard of FAA regs and never have myself. But I would put exactly the same amount of confidence in a reserve that was a few days overdue than one that was not.

www.WingsuitPhotos.com

[JohnMitchell 16]

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When I said "statistics will catch up with everyone" I meant just that: everyone. This does not mean you (or me or that guy I saw last weekend), but every single one of us. Obviously we won't all die in our career, but thats not what statistics says... It says that every 100k jump one of us will die. And that goes for all of us, everyone of us.
We all (or most of us) do our best to increase our chances of surviving next jump,

If everyone worked harder at maximizing safety, the death rate could drop to 1 per 150K or maybe 1 per 200K. Increased safety efforts by everyone, or at least most, will definitely throw off your stats. It's been that way in the airline business, and many others.

When I started jumping, 1/2 of the fatalities were students, often on the first jump. With the emphasis on better training, better gear, and AAD's for all, the student fatality rate has dropped way down.
I do agree that if you jump for an infinite length of time, it will eventually kill you. I figure I have 20-30 years left. I'm going to try really hard to survive them.

[JohnMitchell 16]

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some one who didn't get reserve repacked because "it should still work few days overdue"

Are you implying that this actually would make a difference? I am not promoting the disregard of FAA regs and never have myself. But I would put exactly the same amount of confidence in a reserve that was a few days overdue than one that was not.

+1

[antonija 0]

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some one who didn't get reserve repacked because "it should still work few days overdue"

Are you implying that this actually would make a difference? I am not promoting the disregard of FAA regs and never have myself. But I would put exactly the same amount of confidence in a reserve that was a few days overdue than one that was not.

Not this specific case, but I wrote that to illustrate all "not so urgent and postponable" things your gear needs done.

And ofcourse efforts to make skydiving safer will improve our chances of survival, but as it stands we only got one statistics to deal with, so predicting how this trend will change is not that easy... I just hope it points into the safer direction right now :p

I understand the need for conformity. Without a concise set of rules to follow we would probably all have to resort to common sense. -David Thorne

[Andy_Copland 0]

The risk wont ever catch up with me, i sacrificed a skydivers daughters virginity to the skygods.

1338

People aint made of nothin' but water and shit.

Until morale improves, the beatings will continue.

[erdnarob 1]

Hi Antonija : I disagree with you. Statistics can be done with anything. How do you think Insurance companies proceed in order to calculate the insurance policy premium for somebody ? Same to set up a casino slot machine. And they deal with life insurance too. I sent the problem to statisticians and we will see their answer.

Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.

[awagnon 0]

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I sent the problem to statisticians and we will see their answer.

That's great..! Thanks. I can hardly wait to see what they say.

Alton

"Luck favors the prepared."

[labrys 0]

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Are you implying that this actually would make a difference? I am not promoting the disregard of FAA regs and never have myself. But I would put exactly the same amount of confidence in a reserve that was a few days overdue than one that was not.

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+1

+2

A few days hell... even a few months has been proven acceptable.

Owned by Remi #?

[kallend 2,146]

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Hi Peter, as you said the problem is not as clear as it appears. Here we have a binomial "experiment" as you said because there is only 2 possible results since each jump can be a success or a failure. Maybe we should talk here about Mathematical Expectancy of a binomial experiment. The formula is quite simple : E(X) = np where 'n' is the number of tries and 'p' is the probability of each event or jump to be killed.
Therefore if Awagnon's instructor has 3500 jumps what is the Mathematical Expentancy for him to be killed if the probability of being killed is 1 every 100,000 jumps.

p=1/100,000
E(X) = (1/100,000) x 3500 = 0.035 or 3.5% which is almost the result obtained by your approach which is: 1 minus (0.99999 to the power 3500) = 0.0349 or 3.4%

What is amazing with your approach for 100,000 jumps is that you get the following result ie. 0.63 or probability of 63% to be killed.
If you use my method we get: E(X) = pn = (1/100,000) x 100,000 = 1 (probability of 1) or a probability of 100% to get killed while doing 100,000 jumps which is more normal mathematically speaking...Thank you Awagnon, you gave me the chance to review my Probabilities. But I still have a doubt !!!!

I'd suggest that the Poisson distribution is an easier approach to this type of problem.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[pilotdave 0]

Geez, the math gets a little hard and all you can suggest is distributing poison? Come on, there must be a way to solve this problem!

Dave

[Erroll 80]

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Geez, the math gets a little hard and all you can suggest is distributing poison? Come on, there must be a way to solve this problem!

Dave

I believe many problems have been solved by distributing some poison.

[UDSkyJunkie 0]

I have played numbers games with this occasionally. Here's what I came up with:

Took the same average of 1 fatality per 100,000 jumps, and assumed that an "average" active jumper is going to do 100 jumps per year. I then picked a long time period... 100 jumps a year for 30 years.

Over that person's career, they are looking at a roughly 1 in 1000 chance of being killed in any give year (actually not far off since USPA has roughly 30,000 members and roughly 30 of them are killed every year).

Over a 30 year career, the odds of being killed are rather staggering. about 3%, or 1 in 33. sounds kind of high, doesn't it? although when i think about it i can name probably a dozen dead jumpers I knew personally, and would be hard pressed to name 33 times that number (396!)... not a happy thought. so anecdotally, I think my numbers are realistic.

That said, we all have to realize that the odds are NOT static... this is skydiving, not roulette. We have substantial control over the odds by the disciplines we choose, the equipment we fly, our landing patterns, our attention to safety. Anyone who has been in the sport long enough knows at least one person whom they predicted would die and were sadly proven right (I can name 2). And while the opposite (people who are conservative and smart and make few mistakes but end up killed anyway) does happen, it is quite a bit less common (I know of a few incidents, but haven't known any of them personally).

"Some people follow their dreams, others hunt them down and beat them mercilessly into submission."

[airtwardo 7]

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You can slice it anyway you want, but every skydiver's going to bite the big one someday.

That only applies to you human bean type skydivers...


My plan is to live forever ~ so far so good!

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[Trae 1]

Does the risk eventually catch up to everyone?'
......................

Eventually the answer must be yes.
Somethings eventually gunna get ya.

If the risk is always present then it will always be there waiting for the slightest slip-up.

Last time I checked NO-ONE is perfect.

Skydiving is playing the risk-minimisation game perhaps moreso than risk-elimination.

Some pretty hefty, never before activated , combination-cluster-phucks are brewing away right now just waiting for the perfect environment to express their brutal lessons to the over confident and in-experienced .

Complacency ie self delusional over -confidence , has long been the foe of exremish sports like skydiving.

thinking that the risks you take will never get you is merely delusional thought.

If it can get you it will, often after luring you into a nice cosy sense of safety and self satisfaction.

Xtreme sports can be seen like a huge mouse trap with us as the mice.
The experienced survivors nibbling away at the bait VERY slowly while the newbies think they can eat it all at once.

[Megatron 0]

well put...my recent thoughts exactly on the subject.

[airtwardo 7]

Skydiving is playing the risk-minimisation game perhaps more-so than risk-elimination.

Exactly...and that thought should always be foremost in the participants mind.

~How to minimize the risk?

Stay alert, informed and only play within your talent & currency parameters.

Start early forming good habits and stick to them.

Skydiving isn't a required course to get through life, don't get 'pushed' into doing something you're not ready for...or don't 'really' wanna do.

Remember there is plenty of time to do things right...
risk goes up when you rush~ packing, flying, landing, learning - - - you name it.

The actual 'Holy Grail' is longevity, no recreational activity is worth dying for...think risk minimisation every jump and keeping the ole bag of bones intact for the promised four score & ten.

Gettin' lumps and bumps does happen, finding yourself bent, broken or dead *'most often' comes down to a lacking of skill, intelligence and professionalism...all factors you do have a good measure of control over.









- *most often but not always~life itself is inherently risky -

Murphy Lurks and the Reaper Rides for Free.

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~