The Odds...

[leroydb 0]

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Dude, if you ever start a cult, let me know. I'll join it.

what about mine?

Seriously though, I feel the same way as you. I get "more scared" for lack of a better phrase after every jump. That does not necessarily mean I am scared, just maybe that my senses are heighted in that I am more alert and am aware of more on each jump.

It seems that I here or feel something new on every jump. Be it hearing the PC inflate or whatnot.

Leroy


..I knew I was an unwanted baby when I saw my bath toys were a toaster and a radio...

[FIREFLYR 0]

Kind of a funny thing I noticed about myself....
When I started BASE jumping I stopped riding my motorcycle as much for a few months.....It started to scare me more .I feel it is safer doing 1 simple BASE jump than going to work and back in the city.
ofcourse I'm afraid of heights which makes things quite interesting in the logic part of my brain when I think about these types of things.~J

"One flew East,and one flew West..............one flew over the cuckoo's nest"
"There's absolutely no excuse for the way I'm about to act"

[vandev 0]

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As fine and visible as the line is in BASE, there is still room to be closer or further away than others. I feel many of the people on the list were pushing limits that I'm currently not interested in pushing.

It's no different than what we do in our own simple days and lives..Some get in a car and drive with a purpose.

Some get in a car , talk on the cell put on makeup..then pretend they are driving when in fact they are the closest thing to a statistic than they realize..

Some get a small japanese car trick it out ,nitrous, hopped up engine, to race ,when at 30mph impact, you can die in that car.

It makes no sense other than they....statistic multiplyers, are pushing everyone limits around them..

in a broad sense...if have to try to put it in to numbers...it would be the same as 2 guys...

One base jumping and the other driving next to the stupid woman not paying attention,talking on the cell phone about nothing,and putting on makeup to boot at 6:00 driving 70 miles an hour down the freeway about to miss her exit......

I think its all relative.......

In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle"

[NickDG 23]

I first want to say I'm getting a lot of good feedback from the poll question in the other thread. Thanks, everyone . . .

On what Jaap expressed – here's my thoughts . . .

There was definitely a time when BASE jumpers figured their odds as even, live or die, on each jump. But soon after I started I noticed a difference in some jumper's approach to BASE. I was always (and still am) the type that can make road trip (no matter how long, or expensive) make a single BASE jump, and then sit around the rest of the day with a beer feeling like the king of the world. The worst accident I ever had wasn't a result of zigging when I should have zagged. It was bowing to peer pressure and not listening to the little man inside that was warning me off . . . it's knowing where the wall of your own personal risk level resides as once you go beyond it you aren't firing on all cylinders.

I do think it has a lot to do with when you started BASE jumping. For me it's a time when we realized not that much is known and every jump is sort of an experiment. A new jumper today can get the wrong idea. Because BASE has been around for awhile they can think it's all figured out, and they just have to get up to speed.

Carl Boenish said BASE jumps aren't to be gulped down like skydives, and that's always stuck with me. Even though BASE jumps are harder to come by when I started, I could have pushed it harder, but it seemed reckless to do so. It's the reason it took me five or six years to make a hundred BASE jumps.

It's all still confusing to me. I'm stuck in that coffin corner of believing being very current makes you safer, yet the more you play the game, the more chances you take. It's the reason a thousand skydives can allow you to be blasé, when a thousand BASE jumps won't. I keep flashing on the line from the movie "War Games" when the computer says, "The only way to win the game is not to play."

I'm also struck by viewing the recent Aussie "60 Minutes" piece. We are still trying to explain BASE jumping the same exact way we did 25 years ago. It's still, "you have to do it in order to understand it." Meanwhile a whooping it up Miles (whose daring I have a certain degree of respect for, in a funny way) comes across as juvenile to those minds we wish to change. To me it says we have more in common with the past than we think.

Most BASE jumpers come into the sport big guns and after a few years of high activity they start to slow down. By the time they get to the point where they can be a bit more articulate about the sport the MTV factor kicks in. No one wants to hear from you as you aren't under thirty and hip enough. This dooms our public persona to infantile because it's the younger of us that seeks out the limelight.

BASE jumping, in my opinion, is as dangerous now as it was twenty five years ago. Any gains made in gear and technique will always be somewhat canceled out by pushing the boundaries of what's possible. We used to say being a pioneer was much more dangerous than being a follower. But, now the pioneers are doing such outrageous things the followers are getting hurt and killed trying to imitate them.

I know one thing for sure. Modern fixed object parachuting is just 27 years old, we have a long way to go, and all the time in the world to get there . . . don't take BASE jumping for granted, and don't strive to get too comfortable with it. I hear too many saying they feed off the fear. But, with today's frequency of jumps it's too easy for that to become the addiction when it was actually jumping that got you hooked . . .

NickD BASE 194

[vandev 0]

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I was always (and still am) the type that can make road trip (no matter how long, or expensive) make a single BASE jump, and then sit around the rest of the day with a beer feeling like the king of the world.***

I think that this the the most over looked thing in things we do...It's the moment we over look in spending the hole day trying to better it.

I remember a day surfing on a hudge swell when i lived in Malibu..it was just awsome and as big as its ever been there...I caught one wave ..everything was right.. the takeoff the placment the ride...my turns the sun the air ...everything was just too perfect...Rode it from 3rd point all the way to first point and to the beach.....i walked and sat on the beach and just enjoyed the way that made me feel the rest of the day...I didnt need to go back out...i already was feeling better than i thought i could that day....

Its all about small moments that make better days....

In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle"

[Calvin19 0]

nice...

[hollyhjb 0]

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I see a fatality on the freeway near my house every week. I travel the same freeway every day. Does that mean i am still hear because i have better odds or does it mean i am more alert,pay more attention and know at what time of the day my risk increases and adjust to the conditions where as a driver who never adapts to conditions has a better chance to be a statistic. It's a tough question that everyone has there own theory.

My friend's husband was killed in a car wreck just a few hours ago. He was driving a street he knew well, and drove every day....in fact it was basically his driveway. He did everything right, but that didn't help him when the other driver wasn't paying attention.

While doing something safely may help from becoming a statistic, it does not completely prevent it.

The general population does a lot of dangerous things without thinking twice. Base jumpers think about jumps over and over and manage everything they have any control over. This does improve your chances, but they are still chances. Black death will always play a roll, just as it has in our everyday lives. Someone might get shot walking to their car, but we don't blame them for leaving their house.

I'm going to say the odds really are 0/100 because that is life. What we are are talking about in this thread is the "when" and the "how." It's my thought that if base is part of your life, then it will be part of your death. How directly it will be part of it is the unknown.

"I reject your reality and substitute my own" ~Adam Savage

[Faber 0]

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I read someone say "I give myself 50/50 on each jump" and I have to admit, I give myself these odds for either an injury or death each jump.......

I give YOU thouse odds aswell WHEN YOU go jumping Your doing it all wrong and your shaking like a elephant that got the flu...
I cant deside if your shaking is as of all the fat on your body as it cant stop the movements,but danm i cant belive that you get some onheaddings by thouse unstable exits

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besides, when you are really scared, you land with a bigger buzz!!

and thats when you scream like a girl and makes us all worryed

Actualy if you give yourself 50/50 chance to get hurt or die,i then think your thinking it a wrong way...

IF you want to calculate 1 jump you need all facts and then get it together..
Not having calculated it but i tend to think its more like 15-25% to get injuryed and aprox 5% to die if you jump in ideal condtions.
Dont forget that dooing not ideal jumps ofcourse will incresse the %,and then you´ll need to find out what ideal conditions are on the object you want to jump...

Hell before you calculated that i have done 2 jumps

PS. before this post Mac used to be my freind,so at the point im hitting "post reply" its not a personal insult at Mac.Just making fun at him as he loves it that way

Mac stop limping and do some jumps.. lazy boy....

Stay safe
Stefan Faber

[crwper 7]

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i tend to think its more like 15-25% to get injuryed and aprox 5% to die if you jump in ideal condtions.

Taking the odds of dying on a particular jump as 5%, your odds of living through your first 100 jumps would be about 0.6%. If the odds of getting injured are 15%, then your odds of getting through your first 100 jumps unscathed are about 1/100,000 of 1%. In ideal conditions.

I keep seeing these relatively larger perentages thrown out there, but I really don't think we have an appreciation for how big a 5% chance of dying is. That's what the russian roulette experiment is about. Imagine pulling the trigger on a revolver with 20 chambers and one bullet (okay, big revolver). If the chamber is empty, you live. If it's occupied, you die. No, "Well, maybe if I'm quick enough." That's the end of your life. You will never walk out of that room.

When we say that we have a 5% chance of dying, we aren't talking about a 5% chance of a 180 or something. By the time we hit the "positive" result in that statistical experiment, we've already used up all of our options. We are categorically dead. There is a 100% chance we will not be going out for drinks with the crew later. We won't be watching our own lives, and the lives of those around us, unfold. The ride, for us, is over.

If you seriously think you have a 5% chance of death on each jump, maybe it's time to quit. Because you almost certainly will not live to see your next 100 jumps.

Michael

[Calvin19 0]

" That's the end of your life. You will never walk out of that room."



who plays russian roulette inside? sheesh.

-SPACE-

[BASE813 0]

I did not say my reasons and figures were accurate, but it is what I personally give myself, If you think you are going to walk away from each jump then you have to rethink, you will have a jump where you are injured, or worse. If I expect each jump I have a chance of 50% that I could be injured on this jump then I stay more alert and scare myself................

I find this approach healthy, not accurate........ and its just a personal thing, not everyones "cup o' tea"


and no its not my fat shaking - its the fucking muscles after climbing up a ladder!!!

McLazy (as known in several countries)

[jalisco 0]

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Either I will die BASE jumping (in which case the odds were 100% all along), or I won't (in which case they were zero)

Calvin would be so proud...

[vandev 0]

Sorry to hear about your friend.....

That really just sucks......

In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle"

[wwarped 0]

[reply
My friend's husband was killed in a car wreck just a few hours ago.

[vandev 0]

Hey Japp....Here is a post from a pretty cool site i thought is very relevant ...

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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 5:40 am Post subject: Re: Mortality Rates

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Rockclimbing gets labeled as one of the most dangerous extreme sports, from any that I've talked to. I did some stat scanning when I was SCUBA diving to get a comparison, a few years ago now, and I beleive it was amongst the top five. I can't recall the source now and I didn't retain any numbers. I'll try to remember and post the link later.

I find it better NOT to talk about deaths and accidents much. The majority of accidents were preventable with training, equipment choices and common sense applied. I usually leave it at that as, like any other dangerous activity, it's can be as safe as you want to make it. Don't needlessly scare away anyone who might otherwise have made a good climber.

In my case, I'm taking the kids out. The LAST thing I need is for someone to ask and I spew about how dangerous it is to make me look macho only to have my kids standing nearby with their mouths hanging on the ground. While they realize that falling is bad they don't need the crap stories and nobody needs to think that I am placing them in harms way.

Jeff.

Take a look: http://www.rockclimbing.com/topic/88241

In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle"

[vandev 0]

Just when i thought it couldnt get any better...... Let take our kids base jumping......

***Posted: Mon May 16, 2005 4:22 pm Post subject: Scolding Needed--To Save a Life

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Today (May 16, 2004) an organization in Southern California posted some chilling photos. See: http://www.thegardendiet.com/images/climb

The narrative with the photos describes the situation.

They depict a young woman free-soloing a 70-foot near vertical rock wall, with her daughter, aged 10 or less, free soloing with her. The rock looks rotten and the route looks about 5.5 or so. The mom and little girl were encouraged to free-solo by the father/husband, a man named "storm" who leads seminars and retreats about raw food vegan diets. He apparently has been climbing for 25 years. He also has apparently positioned himself as something of a guru, passing this type of climb off as a mystical/spiritual event.

To my mind, this is an outrageous example of child endangerment. Steps have been taken to contact protective services. However, I believe it may be helpful if members of the climbing community emailed this couple to try to penetrate their addled minds with some notion of responsibility. Mothers speaking to Jinjee (the mother) may be particularly helpful. If you agree, please email Storm and Jinjee at: info@thegardendiet.com

I suggest including a brief synopsis of your own experience as a climber, and other detials that would help them understand why you are qualified to have an opinion on the matter (for example, you may have raised children that lived past their 10th birthday).

A flood of emails may save a life or two.

In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle"

[wilmshurst 0]

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Having put about 10 minutes of guestimating into it, I think there are about 30.000 base jumps being made every year. The past five or so years, the average fatality rate has been around six per year. 30.000 over 6 means that for every 5000 jumps, one person dies.

So the obvious lesson is make 4999 BASE jumps then retire.

The only thing worse than a cold toilet seat is a warm toilet seat.

[Faber 0]

I know what you mean mate i just wanted to pick on you...
Keep your phone open tonite you might get a tandem

Stay safe
Stefan Faber

[Faber 0]

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Taking the odds of dying on a particular jump as 5%, your odds of living through your first 100 jumps would be about 0.6%.

we need to be clear about % when i say 5% i mean on 1 jump not 100

5% of 100 = 5

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If you seriously think you have a 5% chance of death on each jump, maybe it's time to quit. Because you almost certainly will not live to see your next 100 jumps.

I think i survive each time,if not i climb down...
So you could say i climb down 5% of my jumps,now crak that one that way i can keep going forever

Stay safe
Stefan Faber