The Odds...

[JaapSuter 0]

The more I jump, the scarier it gets. Funny how that works. Anyway, Nick's recent post about the amount of jumps being made every year got me thinking about this one.

Disregarding the many different approaches people take in base and grosly generalizing a sport for which there aren't enough statistics to even create useful conclusions, I'll try this anyway.

Have you ever thought about the odds that you can survive in this sport? It matters a lot if you're mostly a potato bridge jumper or you prefer doing double gainers off of 200ft underhung cliffs, but have you ever tried to come up with a number for yourself?

Having put about 10 minutes of guestimating into it, I think there are about 30.000 base jumps being made every year. The past five or so years, the average fatality rate has been around six per year. 30.000 over 6 means that for every 5000 jumps, one person dies.

To stress again; it's a statistic that involves a number we don't really know and every base jumper has different comfort zones which puts them at different amounts of risk.

Let's for now wipe all that aside and disregard that base jumping involves a lot of skill. Imagine, hypothetically, that base jumping is like Russian roulette and that on every jump you are just rolling the dice.

Given the above; one in every five thousand jumps somebody dies, would you still base jump? Or do you consider yourself that one special base jumper that is better than the average jumper? Are you a base jumper that is safer than the rest and will manage to stay ahead of the pack? Do you have the special ingredient? What do you believe your odds are?

With my limited amount of experience and extremely short amount of time in the sport I am in no position to comment on this. But holy crap is this shit dangerous. Let's be careful people. Know what you're getting into!

[BASE813 0]

I read someone say "I give myself 50/50 on each jump" and I have to admit, I give myself these odds for either an injury or death each jump......... it keeps me scared and keeps me focused............

and besides, when you are really scared, you land with a bigger buzz!!

I love having vertigo and giving myself these odds as i walk away from each and every jump REALLY buzzing! no matter what jump I am doing!

[QuickDraw 0]

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Have you ever thought about the odds that you can survive in this sport?

You should sell insurance.

-- Hope you don't die. --

I'm fucking winning

[Sean621 0]

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I love having vertigo and giving myself these odds as i walk away from each and every jump REALLY buzzing! no matter what jump I am doing!

vertigo my ass...i get bored with people saying they have it when its actually a medical condition...

Definition: The sensation of movement; a sensation as if the external world were revolving around an individual (objective vertigo) or as if the individual were revolving in space (subjective vertigo). It is a result of a disturbance of equilibrium. It can be caused by middle ear disease; toxic conditions caused by silicylates, alcohol or the antibiotic streptomycin; sunstroke; postural hypotension; or toxemia caused by such things as food poisoning or infections.
Pronunciation: ver-ti'go

Also Known As: dizziness; lighheadedness; giddiness

Common Misspellings: vertego

Examples: Bob experienced vertigo when he got up from bed this morning and fell.


Macs definition:see picture

http://www.extreme-on-demand.com

[BASE813 0]

ok, sorry I dont fit the medical version - what I mean is I am fucking shit scared of heights!

[ZegeunerLeben 0]

>>I think it's just the nature of the beast. The odds are, something bad is going to happen if you do this long enough. Your friends will start getting crippled or killed, as you yourself may be. It might be right up close and personal, or you may just get a phone call. I suppose the trick is to use your brain to objectively evaluate what you can and can't do, and see how it matches up with the jump your attempting. And then roll the dice.
I think BR said it best:

***
You were born and you will die. You may die while BASE (fixed object) jumping as others have. It is your responsibility to prepare yourself and your heirs for any eventuality that may arise from your participation in such activities as parachute jumping. Parachutes sometimes malfunction, even when they are properly designed, built, assembled, packed, maintained and used. The results of such malfunctions are sometimes serious injury or death.

[Mikki_ZH 0]

Or if you take the Kjerag statistics:

Out of 18'353 Jumps there where 8 fatalities, which makes 1 fatality every 2294 jumps and 76 accidents which makes 1 accident every 241 jumps.

Or my own experience: The 2nd time I went BASE Jumping I witnessed a near fatal accident (heal fast DX!!!)

Yes, I agree, this sport is dangerous!

Michi (#1068)
hsbc/gba/sba
www.swissbaseassociation.ch
www.michibase.ch

[crwper 7]

I've thought about this quite a lot before. Consider the following to be the thoughts of someone who focusses maybe too-much on semantics. I believe that if we can make our meaning as clear as possible, most problems just solve themselves.

I think if someone honestly believed they had a 50/50 chance of dying doing something, there are only a handful of (possibly suicidal) people who would actually do it. I don't mean to speak for the people who make these statements, but maybe only to explore the question a little bit.

I've heard lots of people say, "It's one thing to talk about doing a BASE jump, but it's a whole other thing actually to do it." Anyone who has jumped, I think, feels this. I propose that, "It's one thing to talk about having 50/50 odds of survival, but it's a whole other thing actually to put yourself in a situation which gives you those odds, strictly speaking." For someone to convince me that they know what 50/50 odds are (and are therefore capable of making that comparison with a BASE jump), I would like to see them at least once have pulled the trigger in a game of russian roulette, with half the chambers full. Otherwise, I think what we have here is a misunderstanding of how impossibly bleak strict 50/50 odds of survival is.

I don't think this stops at what we would usually think of as "bleak" odds. If someone honestly believes they have 1 in 1000 odds of dying on a particular jump, I would encourage them to find something akin to a 1000-chamber revolver with which to calibrate their guess.

I want to be clear that I am not talking about rolling some dice and saying, "I would have died if that one came up a seven." That would be like walking up to an exit point and saying, "I could have done it." What we're talking about here is a test where, when you've pulled the trigger, there is no question you know what those odds feel like.

Nor is the most important part of the experiment the moment when you pull the trigger. What does it feel like to anticipate something like that? What does it feel like if you live? What's it like to know that you put that much on the line for statistical chance?

I'll likely never know, because after giving it a lot of thought, I've come to think that I will never play russian roulette.

Michael

[JaapSuter 0]

If I understand your post correctly, the reason you do base jump and you don't play Russian roulette is because you believe that in base you are more in control of things?

I guess that is what most base jumpers think. Because we prepare, pack, check our gear, do the jump ourselves, etcetera, we think we can cheat the odds (if there are any) and stick around long enough.

I wonder if maybe we're all just fooling ourselves though. Surely some base jumpers are safer than others, but the game is pretty deadly and on a long enough timeline everybody's survival rate drops to zero.

[crwper 7]

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Surely some base jumpers are safer than others, but the game is pretty deadly and on a long enough timeline everybody's survival rate drops to zero.

Jaap, on a long enough timeline everyone's survival rate drops to zero. Not just BASE jumpers.

Michael

[JaapSuter 0]

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Not just BASE jumpers.

Obviously.

But what about my question; are we just fooling ourselves? Are we as much in control as we'd like to believe?

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I believe that if we can make our meaning as clear as possible, most problems just solve themselves.

Dude, if you ever start a cult, let me know. I'll join it.

[littlestranger 0]

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The past five or so years, the average fatality rate has been around six per year. 30.000 over 6 means that for every 5000 jumps, one person dies.

These odds would be pretty easy to live with, but I'd be fooling myself if I believed I could apply them to myself in reference to BASE. The 50/50 odds of injury or death, though ostensibly extreme, seem more realistic.

[whatever 0]

if I were to make a wild probability calculation from Jaap's suggested numbers, since I'm fairly active and I've done 116 jumps in the last 10 months, which works out to 139 per year:

the wild part is assuming I could survive 5000 jumps before it's 'the one'; at my present rate that would take 36 years and I'd be 68 when I smack in - I like those odds and I'd be perfectly content giving up a decade or two in a retirement home for the experiences that 5000 jump would hold !

using Mikki's numbers:
2294 jumps, 16.5 years and 48.5 years when I get my place on the list....

looking at those calculations and comparing to my short experience in this sport, I would say Jaap's numbers are far too optimistic and Mikki's numbers look closer to reality for time in the sport, but still vey optimistic for jump numbers and age at death

injury, of course, lies much closer down the road that is quickly becoming more travelled

why do we still do it?
-some are too young or just too stupid to really understand the risks and price of participation
-some are really good at denial
-some would rather not live if they didn't feel alive
-some are addicted to the experience

my targets are to jump as much as I'd like until I'm 65 or so, I have never made peace with the idea of getting old and I've never been really excited about dying in my sleep either, it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience, so you might as well make it interesting...

that makes me sound like someone who've never even skinned their knee, but the truth is that I've seen the inside of a life-flight helicopter and it's made me as appreciative of the value of life as it has of it's fleeting nature

I do not take unneccesary risks as life is too precious to lose that way, but I do consider some risks as neccesary to make life worthwhile.

soon to be gone

[Zennie 0]

Calculating odds based on raw fataility numbers is somewhat misleading, because if you look at the list, a large number of the fatalities... especially in the past couple of years... revolve around the nature of the object, site conditions and the jumper's experience level.

There is always going to be some amount of "random black death-ness" at work on any jump. But I think as a general principle, odds to the person jumping in TF is very different from the person jumping in Switzerland.

Add aerials, wingsuits etc into the mix and the odds change yet again.

There is a nice article on the ABA's website that discusses risk assessment and how changing factors change risk. You can check it out here.

All told, I'm very much aware that something can go wrong on any given jump. That's what keeps the fear level up and keeps me from getting complacent.

- Z
"Always be yourself... unless you suck." - Joss Whedon

[Mikki_ZH 0]

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why do we still do it?
-some are too young or just too stupid to really understand the risks and price of participation
-some are really good at denial
-some would rather not live if they didn't feel alive
-some are addicted to the experience

reply]

I think you sum it up perfectly. I would have to count myself somehow into the group "some are really good at denial"...
I know that there is a good chance of getting killed but I very much beleave that I will survife this sport...
I would never jump if I would think that I have a 50/50 chance to die...

Michi (#1068)
hsbc/gba/sba
www.swissbaseassociation.ch
www.michibase.ch

[eb66to77 0]

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30.000 over 6 means that for every 5000 jumps, one person dies.

I guess my question would be, "How close are we to 4,999?"

[vandev 0]

I was going to write something but Ken Millers risk assesment hits it right on the nail. The equipment , setup and simplicity is far better than skydiving gear. Take a look at the Fatality list....You dont see equipent failure as a cause of death. It's you...Your body position, your decision to jump ,your pack job, and of most....your brain controlling your actions. I think it is fair to assume that you can do this for along time. I see a fatality on the freeway near my house every week. I travel the same freeway every day. Does that mean i am still hear because i have better odds or does it mean i am more alert,pay more attention and know at what time of the day my risk increases and adjust to the conditions where as a driver who never adapts to conditions has a better chance to be a statistic. It's a tough question that everyone has there own theory.

ok i lied....i wrote something.....

In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle"

[JaapSuter 0]

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I guess my question would be, "How close are we to 4,999?"

The counter got reset twice the last few weeks.

[vandev 0]

Jaap.....There is no counter....you are the counter...dont start giving your brain any ideas about how to start counting.....

Your brain only does what it has been told or taught to do.....dont start now...

In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle"

[lifewithoutanet 0]

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Calculating odds based on raw fataility numbers is somewhat misleading, because if you look at the list, a large number of the fatalities... especially in the past couple of years... revolve around the nature of the object, site conditions and the jumper's experience level.

There is always going to be some amount of "random black death-ness" at work on any jump. But I think as a general principle, odds to the person jumping in TF is very different from the person jumping in Switzerland.

Add aerials, wingsuits etc into the mix and the odds change yet again.

These are the words I've been searching for all day to sum up how I feel, specifically what you're doing with these jumps. With my limited experience in BASE (40 jumps from 5 objects...BAS and 'O'), I have a greater control of what I'm doing on the object (flat and stable for me) and therefore a greater fear of the object itself. Add aerials to the mix and suddenly I'm not just afraid of the object, but what I'm doing off said object. This accounts for my slow pace...correction, zero pace...moving toward aerials.

As my jumps get more complex (invariably they will over time and experience), so--I believe--will my fear. It took me a while to completely appreciate when I first entered BASE, why some of my more experienced friends described being more afraid than before with each successive jump. I understood what they were saying, but appreciated it much more as I added other objects to my logbook.

As for me, I can't quantify it in a 50/50 chance with each jump, and I'm not sure how to put into words the feelings I have at an exit. One thing's for sure, though, it always comes back to the two bucket theory. I know how much I have in one of them and I know that can increase, but I'm not allowed to look in the other. In that sense, I'd prefer to think of the luck bucket as empty, for I have no control over that one, and focus on the preparation and skills that will keep me alive.

-C.

[JaapSuter 0]

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Jaap.....There is no counter

Obviously that was meant in a figure-of-speech kind of reply to the 4999 comment.

I realize that in any chaotic process there are going to be runs of occurences that are only explicable by randomness.


Better not get me started on probability theory. Before you know it I'll bring out Bayes and start rambling about the Monty Hall gimmick.

[base736 0]

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looking at those calculations and comparing to my short experience in this sport, I would say Jaap's numbers are far too optimistic and Mikki's numbers look closer to reality for time in the sport, but still vey optimistic for jump numbers and age at death.

It's interesting that you should interpret the results this way, because I had exactly the opposite reaction when (some years ago) I ran the same numbers. I think the ages you calculate are working out fine -- that statistically, even an active jumper (100 jumps per year) has a half-life of thirty years or more jumping.

Why does it seem like it should be so much shorter? Because most of us get squeamish at odds that are much lower than we would expect. I think Nick put it really well here http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=1551590;search_string=goober;#1551590:

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The underlying problem with BASE, and the real goober of it all, is BASE jumping is a wonderful thing, but it's not worth your life.

I think most of us know this, and instinctively keep things pretty safe even if we're telling ourselves that this one is 50/50.

[base736 0]

To address Jaap's original question... I think that, at the end of the day, the statistics are irrelevant. Not because I've got such m4d sk1llz that statistics don't apply to me, but for this reason... Either I will die BASE jumping (in which case the odds were 100% all along), or I won't (in which case they were zero). It's small-number statistics at its finest.

Anyway, how (and even when) I will die seems somehow small in relation to the fact that, sooner or later, I will die -- I try not to get too hung up on the details.

[tfelber 0]

Zennie's comments are very similar to my thoughts or better yet justifications. As fine and visible as the line is in BASE, there is still room to be closer or further away than others. I feel many of the people on the list were pushing limits that I'm currently not interested in pushing. I also believe that most people who have been hurt or killed BASE jumping know they were pushing beyond where they had gone before. I could rationally explain this with numerous examples, but that may just be me trying to convince myself of something.

It's human nature to only hear what you want and to look for justification into why your thoughts are correct.

With BASE I feel very close to the edge. I don't have enough experience to fully trust my gear and how I packed it. I feel like I can deal with most situations correctly, but there are many events in BASE jumping that I haven't experienced or want to for that matter.

I do consider that this could be the one and think about the people in my life and where it might leave them. And if I'm not comfortable with those thoughts I don't jump. That's what made me walk down twice a month or so ago.

I don't think I'll die BASE jumping, but I realize it can happen. As for "the odds" when my feet leave the exit point I plan 100% on surviving the jump.

[vandev 0]

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I realize that in any chaotic process there are going to be runs of occurences that are only explicable by randomness.

Jaap, Youve just discovered the secret of life....every day,different day,day every, day different......

As growing up surfing....we always new that random swells where just runs of occurences....there was no real reason....we just enjoyed them as they came...

In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle"